NEWS ANALYSIS : Assembly Likely to Revive Valley Bid to Leave LAUSD

The new Republican dominance of the state Assembly will probably spark a fresh legislative attempt to break San Fernando Valley schools away from the massive Los Angeles Unified School District.

The shift of political dynamics also seems certain to reawaken the efforts of gun advocates to undermine the assault-weapons ban authored by outgoing state Sen. David A. Roberti (D-Van Nuys).

These are just two of the Valley-based issues that may emerge in the wake of the Republican sweep and the possible ouster of longtime Assembly Speaker Willie Brown (D-San Francisco).

It has been Brown’s vehement opposition--and his fierce allegiance to teachers unions--that hopelessly stalled the perennial effort by LAUSD critics to secede from the mammoth district.

Now, with Republicans holding a 41-39 edge in the Assembly and Brown vulnerable to a takeover by Assemblyman Jim Brulte (R-Rancho Cucamonga), new support for the school district breakup movement is one of several scenarios likely to result.

Here is a look at some of the people and issues that stand to gain--or lose--in the Valley delegation if Republicans seize control for the first time in a generation after the Assembly reconvenes next Monday:

Paula Boland

Assemblywoman Paula Boland (R-Granada Hills) is a favorite to inherit the chair of the Assembly Public Safety Committee, the clearinghouse for crime bills and gun-control legislation.

As the ranking Republican on the committee, Boland has served as vice chairwoman of the eight-member panel and has carved out a reputation as an advocate for victims’ rights. Awarding Boland the chair would bolster her chances of getting more anti-crime legislation passed.

Boland declined to speculate on whether she might be elevated to the prestigious post, but said she had full faith that Brulte would wrestle the Speaker’s job from Brown.

“I believe Jim Brulte will be Speaker, and he’ll make those decisions when he’s elected,” she said, noting she “might be interested” in accepting such a responsibility if asked.

The heightened stature--combined with the possibility of Brown’s removal as Speaker--would improve the outlook for Boland’s legislation paving the way for Valley reformists to seek autonomy from the LAUSD.

Already, Boland has submitted a bill for the new session opening next week. The measure mirrors another one she had last year that faltered in the face of Brown’s accusations that the breakup attempt was little more than veiled racism.

Boland pointed to the LAUSD’s lawsuit challenging Proposition 187 as the latest example of the need to split away from the larger Los Angeles district.

“The audacity of this school board,” Boland said, “to have heard the voice of the voters and turn around and use taxpayer education dollars to file a lawsuit when there were ample suits filed.

“And this, when they say they don’t have the money to educate kids and hire nurses,” she said. “It’s another sign that they have got to be broken up and somebody’s got to put a stop to them.”

Boland said her office phones have been “ringing off the wall” with calls from school breakup supporters heartened by reports of change afoot in Sacramento.

Gun Control

The gun-control legacy of Sen. Roberti could come under fire in the new Assembly as pro-gun groups rally legislators in an anticipated attempt to weaken the 1989 Roberti-Roos Assault Weapon Control Act.

According to John Stoos of Gun Owners of California Inc., which backed last April’s attempted recall of Roberti, the organization will not go so far as to try to repeal the assault weapon ban.

But it will attempt to muster up the 46 pro-gun votes it now calculates it has in the Assembly to remove certain semiautomatic weapons from the bill’s provisions--in effect, “cleaning up” the law’s definition of assault weapons, Stoos said.

Last year, pro-gun forces counted solid support among 37 Assembly members. Stoos said the new, larger vote margin will also allow his organization to push for new legislation allowing people to legally carry concealed weapons.

In the Senate, however, Stoos said only 18 members consistently favor his group’s position on loosening up gun-control laws.

Any attempt to water down the Roberti-Roos Act would probably face stiff opposition in the Senate, where Roberti--who is retiring this year due to term limits--is remembered fondly.

Bill Hoge

Assemblyman Bill Hoge (R-Pasadena), who represents the Sunland-Tujunga area, also stands to benefit from the Assembly’s switch to a Republican majority and anticipated selection of a GOP Speaker.

Hoge is mentioned as a possible chairman of the Assembly Governmental Organization Committee, a panel that serves as gatekeeper for gambling, racetrack, liquor and lottery legislation.

As a member of the committee for the past two years, Hoge--already the assistant Republican Whip in the Assembly--often advised other Republicans on the panel when it came to voting on bills.

An ascension to the chairmanship, however, may serve to again focus attention on Hoge’s ties to gambling interests--horse racing in particular--that contributed $140,000 to his campaigns since 1992.

Although the issue surfaced in the campaign, Hoge captured a larger percentage of the vote--53%--than he did when first elected in 1992 with the backing of 51% of the electorate. His anti-crime, tax-cutting, pro-business platform stands more of a chance at producing results with fellow Republicans in power.

James Rogan

Assemblyman James Rogan (R-Glendale) is the successor to Assemblyman Pat Nolan, who went to prison on a political corruption charge. Rogan is likely to gain a firm toehold in a Republican-dominated Assembly.

Regarded as a bright, amiable colleague by members on both sides of the partisan aisle, Rogan is mentioned as a candidate to head the Assembly Judiciary Committee.

Although he says he is not campaigning for the position, Rogan concedes that his background as a former Glendale Municipal Court judge and prosecutor could make him a natural contender.

With nothing set in stone, Rogan’s resume could also help him outdistance Boland should an open contest erupt for the chairmanship of the Public Safety Committee.

Either way, Rogan has an agenda of his own that he hopes to push in the wake of the power shift--reforming the rules for lawmaking at the Statehouse.

“With a Republican majority, I’m very optimistic that some of the legislative reform concepts I’ve been working on will see the light of day--that the leadership will help get those to the floor for a vote,” Rogan said.

To Rogan’s eye, too little time is allotted for legislators to study up on the complex proposed laws they vote on every day. And too many of those measures lack merit.

“I’d like to see the rules of the house changed so legislators have more opportunities to cast more informed votes,” Rogan said. “I’d also like to see the rules changed so there is less frivolous legislation.”

Richard Katz

As for those vulnerable to losing critical committee chairmanships should a Republican Speaker win control of the lower house, Assemblyman Richard Katz (D-Sylmar) leads the pack.

Asked if his longtime stewardship of the Assembly Transportation Committee panel would be endangered by a changeover to a Republican Speaker, Katz was blunt. “It’s not in jeopardy--it’s gone,” he said.

Consequently, Katz predicts an erosion in the Valley’s clout in the competition for state transportation funds. “In terms of the Valley,” he said, “it will certainly hurt our ability to complete sound-wall projects and get money at budget time.”

During his tenure as head of the transportation committee, Katz has taken on a watchdog’s role when it has come to monitoring Caltrans. He has delved so deeply into transportation issues that last year it was rumored the Clinton Administration sought him for a position with the U. S. Department of Transportation.

Katz fears that the activist course he set for the transportation committee will unravel in the hands of Republicans should they take over the reins of the panel.

“If the Republicans take over, for one thing it means that the effort we’ve made to hold Caltrans accountable on earthquake retrofitting problems will probably stop,” Katz said.

At any rate, Katz said, he doubted that Brulte would scrape together enough votes to displace Brown--a cunning politician who is at his best when his leadership is challenged. Even though Republicans now command 41 seats--enough to elect a new Speaker--not all GOP members fall in lock-step behind Brulte, Katz maintains.

In the wake of the Republican sweep, Katz did not deny speculation that he’s considering a run for the Los Angeles City Council. “One of the things my wife and I are doing now is assessing the future,” he said. “I haven’t closed any doors at this point.”