New Answers Pose Difficult Questions : Survey Redirects Focus to Crime and Related Issues

For the first 10 years of its existence, every time the Orange County Annual Survey asked residents to identify their biggest concern, the same answer came back: traffic. It was enough to prompt the directors of the survey to say they were working in a “one-issue county.” No longer.

In 1992, when Bill Clinton’s aides reminded campaign workers that “It’s the economy, stupid,” the economy ranked highest on the list of concerns in Orange County.

Last year, and again this year, the main worry has been crime. More than 30% picked crime as the most important public policy problem, followed by 18% who chose jobs and the economy. The director of the annual survey, Mark Baldassare of UC Irvine, said the shift from traffic to crime parallels Orange County’s shift from suburban to urban. Orange County Sheriff Brad Gates said the fears of crime are not unfounded. Violent crimes are increasing, and the publicity given to them adds to the fear.

But the survey of 1,000 county residents also found signs of hope. For instance, the number of respondents who said things were going “badly” in the county dropped from 40% last year to 29% this year. One reason was a better feeling about the economy, rated good or excellent by more than one-quarter of the respondents. And nearly half expected it to improve in the next two years. Baldassare said the “quality of life” ratings were the highest since 1990, which is encouraging.

However, a troubling aspect of the poll was the renewed evidence of a fault line dividing South County from north, west and central. Along with it went a marked difference in the threats perceived by poor and rich, and their reactions.

Of South County respondents, 35% feared becoming a crime victim. For north, west and central, the figure was far higher, just under 50%. Asked if their worries about crime were so bad that they kept them from using public parks or beaches, 53% in central Orange County answered “yes.” In South County, only 28% answered “yes.”

As Baldassare correctly noted, if people acted on those worries, an exodus of residents from other areas to wealthier South County would hurt in at least two ways. It would worsen traffic in one area of the county where many still rank traffic as a major problem, and it would harm the economy of the areas the migrants are fleeing. Also troubling was that only 24% of residents had confidence in the ability of courts to convict and sentence criminals. Nationally, the percentage is even lower. With attitudes like that, it was not surprising that flawed legislation like the “three strikes” law passed the Legislature this year--and was adopted by the voters via Proposition 184 last month.

These findings challenge the county’s political and opinion leadership to deal creatively and effectively with changing perceptions and new realities. One encouraging note was the finding that nearly four out of five residents said the county needed programs to increase dialogue among ethnic groups and raise public understanding about cultural diversity. Even higher numbers made the realistic assessment that efforts to improve race relations are important to the county’s economy and quality of life.

Still, many residents clearly are concerned about the demographic changes of recent years, which have whittled away at the overwhelming numerical majority of whites and increased the numbers of Latinos and Asians. The changes ought to prompt all our citizens to make diversity an asset to the community and to involve members of all groups in shaping policy.