Home Building Jumps 44%, but Analysts Cautious : Construction: While the mini-boom is a positive sign, industry leaders say it’s too soon to call the increase a sign of recovery.

Ventura County home construction has risen 44% this year compared to the previous three years, but building industry officials cautioned Monday that the rebound offers no assurance of a full economic recovery.

During the first 10 months of this year, builders constructed 1,378 new single-family homes countywide. By contrast, developers built an average of about 955 homes over the same period from 1991 through 1993.

Building analysts attributed the increase to several factors, including the threat of rising interest rates and the need to accommodate an exodus from Los Angeles County because of crime and the Northridge earthquake.

Industry leaders said it is too early to consider the increase a sure sign of economic recovery in the county.

“It’s the best year we’ve had since 1990, but the numbers are still terribly reduced,” said E. Warren Bossard, a housing consultant for Chicago Title Co. “I think it would be overly optimistic to say that economic recovery is here.”

Ben Bartolotto, the analyst who compiled the data for Construction Industry Research Board, cautioned that this year’s rise should not be considered a trend.

“It may be a one-time thing--an adjustment of the market,” Bartolotto said. “Still, it’s a good indication that there is a fresh confidence in the economy on the part of developers.”

Bartolotto and Bossard agreed that the mini-boom can only help improve Ventura County’s economic climate.

“Certainly there will be a ripple effect from this new activity,” Bossard said. “Development affects all the trades--from building supplies to the people who build furnaces to those who make refrigerators.”

And, he said, the increase in home construction opens the door for people to trade up, moving now to sell their current home in favor of a new one. That can lead to a flurry of activity in the real estate market.

Indications this year are that county residents have already begun to re-enter the market in search of a second home, said Dee Zinke, executive director of the Building Industry Assn.’s Ventura County chapter.

“What we’re seeing is people who have been sitting on the fence deciding to make their move now,” Zinke said. “That is having a positive impact all the way down the line.”

The spark for this renewed interest comes in part from fear that interest rates will continue to rise. Also, interest in east Ventura County can be traced to Los Angeles residents who are heading across the county line.

“There’s certainly anecdotal evidence that people who were rattled by the (Northridge) earthquake are moving away from the epicenter, and that means out into Ventura County,” Bartolotto said.

“And I think the quality-of-life issues are also helping fuel development in areas like Thousand Oaks and Simi Valley,” he said.

Just last week, federal law enforcement officials ranked Ventura County first in safety among counties in the western United States.

“I would say that, more and more, Ventura County is appearing to be an attractive alternative to the buyer moving out of L. A.,” said Kim Bryson, a Ventura County Economic Development Agency board member. “Hopefully that will lead to a gradual improvement of our economy.”

Ventura County Home Construction

Single-Family Multifamily Year Houses Units Total 1985 3,210 2,972 6,182 1986 5,047 2,466 7,513 1987 3,288 917 4,205 1988 3,675 1,479 5,154 1989 3,347 1,679 5,026 1990 1,360 1,252 2,612 1991 1,047 1,147 2,194 1992 1,166 554 1,720 1993 1,166 206 1,372 1994* 1,378 529 1,907

* Through October.

Single-family houses include detached, semi-detached, row-house and townhouse units.

Multifamily units include duplexes, three- to four-unit structures and apartment-type structures with five units or more.