L.A. County Shows 1st Signs of a Comeback : Economy: UCLA business forecasting report says state will gain more than 200,000 jobs this year.

With California’s economic recovery continuing to exceed expectations, Los Angeles County--which has lost more than 500,000 jobs since 1989--has begun to show the first faint signs of a turnaround, according to two economic forecasts expected to be released today.

Los Angeles County retailers should report higher sales this year--the first annual increase in five years--and job growth “appears imminent” over the next few months after years of declines, according to a report by the UC Santa Barbara Economic Forecast Project.

The promise of a regional turnaround comes as the state’s economy has expanded much more quickly than expected. The UCLA Business Forecasting Project, which will release its quarterly economic report today in tandem with the UCSB survey, says the state will add more than 200,000 jobs this year--almost twice the estimate UCLA made three months ago.

The state’s economy will grow even more quickly next year, when it will add more than 440,000 jobs, before the rate of growth declines again in 1996 as the national economy slows, according to the UCLA report.

Still, California should continue to add more than 200,000 jobs in 1996 and ‘97, UCLA said.

The expected national slowdown “prevents California’s growth in 1995 from becoming a full boom,” said Tom Lieser, associate director at the UCLA Business Forecasting Project. “But it is still a very good forecast.”

Along with Los Angeles County, there were recovery signs throughout Southern California, with San Diego, Santa Barbara and Ventura counties also projected to experience job growth soon. In fact, the number of jobs in Orange County increased in September after being relatively flat for 22 months, but that was well before the county’s financial crisis was discovered.

The nascent comeback in Los Angeles County, however, remains fragile and will most likely continue to lag the statewide recovery, according to forecasts by UCSB and others.

Continued layoffs in the aerospace industry and the slump in commercial real estate pose major economic hurdles for the county, First Interstate Bank economist Adrian Sanchez said.

In past recoveries, growth in real estate and aerospace have pulled the area out of its slumps, said Jack Kyser, chief economist at the Economic Development Corp. of Los Angeles County.

This time around, however, it is the strength of the trade and entertainment industries that is expected to help add 11,000 jobs to the county this year--the first increase since 1990.