One Election Doesn’t Make a Revolution : Politics: Women didn’t gain instant parity in Campaign ’92 nor were they consigned to history by Campaign ’94.

On the “women and politics watch,” the ghost of 1992 lingers. “What happened to women?” is intoned with disbelief. Were the high spirits of ‘92, the yester-Year-of-the-Woman, so short-lived or misplaced? No, not misplaced. Just premature and ahistorical in entertaining a notion that one election year might overcome centuries of political practice, granting women power with one Olympic leap.

Still, the hellfires of Campaign ’94 did not immolate women. Political woman is alive and well, even if not a prime-time story. Progress takes place nomination by nomination, inch by historical inch. That has been happening for more than two decades, and will continue for many more before women achieve political parity.

While headlines trumpeted 1992 the “Year of the Woman,” that year’s particular news was that women sprinted forward in national office. When the 103rd Congress convened, women occupied 10% of 535 Senate and House seats, four points over the previous 6% high. The extraordinary success produced four new female senators, while women in the House nearly doubled their ranks. A close look shows almost all newcomers winning open seats; all but three were Democrats, and a number won in traditionally Republican or highly competitive House districts. In the state legislatures--a marker level of steady, incremental progress for women throughout two decades--1992 resulted in a rare gain of two percentage points rather than the more typical one-point increase.

Enter the 1994 gender sweepstakes. How would women outpace themselves? Expectations were unrealistic. The political ballyhoo was about something else in 1994. Change was still an energizing issue, but this time women were not center stage as the positive symbol of change and difference. The electorate’s energy was focused less on empowering newcomers than on ejecting old-timers. Old-timers, including those who had been in office only a term, translated as Democrats.

Elected women encountered this year’s ballot box anger. Especially vulnerable were Democratic women in marginal seats where the 1994 Republican tide swept out interlopers in traditionally Republican areas. Where challengers faced incumbents, incumbents were vulnerable in 1994 regardless of gender if they were Democrats.

In state legislative races, a remarkable 25% of female Republican challengers defeated incumbent Democrats, whereas a mere 4% of female Democratic challengers defeated Republican incumbents. When state legislatures convene in January, 1995, Republican women will hold 87 additional seats and Democratic women will be down by 104 seats.

Competitions for open seats followed suit. Where there were open seats in the Senate, Republicans were likely to win in 1994. In House races for open seats, Republican women won 67% of the time versus 40% for Democratic women.

The overall picture for 1994 shows that in keeping with recent elections, increasingly women competed for the most coveted offices--governors and senators in powerful states such as California, Texas, Illinois, New York. There were even several “double feature” races in which two--sometimes more--women won nominations for their state’s top positions. When the new Senate convenes, for the first time in history, eight women will serve.

Notwithstanding the loss of 11 departing or defeated congresswomen (almost a quarter of their delegation), women in the House managed to hold onto their 47 seats. In the states, record numbers of women have been elected to statewide executive offices. In legislatures, women held onto the level of representation achieved in the record-setting elections of 1992. One by one, inch by inch.

Coronations were as inappropriate for ’92 as funerals are this year. The epilogue to 1994 is that women returned to their familiar position--pushing forward here, stalling a bit there, chalking up political firsts or near-firsts for gender politics. Election 1992 was one year, not a generation; election ’94 is but another year in the long push to parity. Neither year switched direction for women in politics. While nothing about social and political progress is inevitable or should be taken for granted, while vigilance and organization remain essential, the trend line for women in politics is uninterrupted and upwardly inclined.

It is far too soon to switch off or change channels. Stay tuned.