Moment of Truth for NHL : Hockey: If the show is to go on this season, owners and players will have to conclude their negotiations this week.

As it has been pointed out over and over during the lockout, hockey is a big business. Well, this is the week the crops come in and there will have to be a deal -- or else.

“When it comes to farming, you don’t really have a problem that you can’t solve unless there is no market, no buyer for your product,” says New York Rangers Coach Colin Campbell, who owns a tobacco farm in Tillsonburg, Ontario. “We have a lot of fans out there who have been anxious for more than two months to see hockey games. And since that’s what we like to do in the first place, we ought to be able to find ways to provide a product that is very much in demand.

“I know there are some complicated issues, but if we aren’t playing by Jan. 3, those guys (Commissioner Gary Bettman and union boss Bob Goodenow) are screwy.”

Old-fashioned common sense. That’s what finally will take over this week when the owners, faced with losing the season, back down on their tax-issue demand. They will drop the tax and negotiate until their pre-set deadline (probably Dec. 22) to get the best possible deal.

“If there’s a situation where it can’t get done, then we have to step in there and rattle some people up,” Detroit Red Wings Owner Mike Ilitch says.

That means accepting gains in entry-level salaries and salary arbitration, as I have proposed for months.

“There is no way we can do a deal if the tax is part of it,” Pittsburgh Penguins defenseman Larry Murphy says. “If they drop the tax proposal, there is a deal.”

Several owners told The Sporting News that reintroducing the tax was a “face-saving tactic to show small-market teams the league had not sold them out. But the charade was part of a natural process.”

And so was the reaction of the players, who threw the tax proposal on the floor and walked out of last week’s meeting in Chicago.

That’s why the tax will disappear this week and the Edmontons and Winnipegs of the NHL will have to make it on their own. Seventy-five percent of the owners will not vote to cancel the season.

“We know it’s not good to not have hockey,” Philadelphia Flyers General Manager Bobby Clarke says. “We’ll be cutting their throats and they’ll be cutting ours.”

Canceling the Jan. 21 All-Star Game at San Jose, Calif., was inevitable because the league will need the dates for a modified schedule. Of more importance is the fact the All-Star Game was supposed to mark the beginning of the NHL’s television alliance with the Fox network.

As of now, Fox can have the rest of the NHL’s regular-season and playoff package, but the network has let it be known it would ask for a rebate on its five-year, $155-million deal should any more games be canceled. That’s money most teams already have spent.

So, you’ve got owners borrowing money to pay bills. And you’ve got owners spending television money they may have to return. More important, you’ve got the two sides close to a deal--as long as there is no luxury-tax plan.

Here’s the scoop on the three major issues:

--You’ve got an agreement in principle on free agency, where players become unrestricted free agents at age 30 -- no franchise-player designations at 28. Owners have proposed a draft-choice compensation scale on free agents between 24 and 29 based on player salaries ranging from $400,000 to more than $2 million, with compensation ranging from a third-round draft choice to three first-round draft choices. The players would like to reduce the top compensation to two first-rounders and a second-round choice, which should be acceptable.

--You’ve got an agreement on two-year arbitration awards, unless the team elects to go with a one-year period before the arbitration hearing. The sides agree that unrestricted free agents’ salaries cannot be used to determine a player’s salary in arbitration. Owners want non-binding arbitration; players oppose because 65 to 70 percent of the 700 association members are 24 to 29. The owners may insist on non-binding salary arbitration to get the tax issue off the table.

--You’ve got an agreement on a $1-million rookie salary cap, including bonuses. The players want a cost-of-living index in this provision; the owners oppose that concept. The giving point is that players propose a draft reduction from 11 rounds to 10 for players 18 and older. Owners propose an eight-round draft for players 20 and older, with some exceptions for superior 18- and 19-year-olds.

Because veterans are so afraid the league will replace them with less-expensive young talent, the 20-year-old draft concept should make sense to them.

“We’ve got the blueprints and we’re working on the footings, but we’re a long way from having a house built,” Edmonton Oilers G.M. Glen Sather says.

But there are a lot of players and owners who are willing to pitch in and build that foundation for a strong future.

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New York Rangers center Mark Messier says the players will start a league of their own “in two months” if the owners cancel the season.

Phone calls to the players association uncovered no knowledge or any foundation for such a plan.

Former Quebec Nordiques G.M. Pierre Page has a great idea. “Give the next expansion team to the players,” he says. “I’m sure their philosophy of what to pay players would change. I know Pierre Lacroix’s philosophy changed dramatically over a few months after he went from agent to general manager in Quebec.”

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Washington Capitals left wing Kelly Miller says he has given up enough. “The way I look at it, I’ve already given them my keys. Then I gave them my wallet. Then I gave them my car. At some point you have to say you can’t have my kids and my wife.”

When you make $1.8 million and get only 14 goals and 25 assists, you probably should expect some form of reprisal for your robbery.

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Toronto Coach Pat Burns told his players to be ready to play Dec. 29. So did Montreal Coach Jacques Demers and Winnipeg Coach John Paddock. Each was told that’s the deadline for a 54-game schedule. Plan B calls for 50 games, which is more likely because a 14-day training camp is a must.