THE TIMES POLL : Americans Ambivalent on GOP’s ‘Contract’ : Clinton is strongly supported on crime, welfare, taxes. Republicans are seen as better able to solve problems.

While some proposals in the Republican “contract with America” enjoy broad support, Americans are skeptical about key elements of the plan and strongly prefer President Clinton’s alternatives on crime, welfare and taxes, a Times Poll released Monday has found.

The survey comes as Clinton marks the halfway point of his tumultuous presidency with tonight’s State of the Union Address. The poll results portray a conflicted and skeptical public--at once hopeful that the Republican congressional takeover will improve the country, uncertain that the GOP can deliver real change, resolute in its suspicion of Washington, worried about the nation’s moral fabric and divided between broad anti-government sentiments and continued support for an array of specific government programs.

The poll offers a bright yellow flag for the GOP majority racing to complete action on its “contract” campaign manifesto within 100 days: While showing that the public places more confidence in congressional Republicans than in Clinton for solving the country’s problems, it also indicates substantial resistance to cuts in an array of federal programs and doubts about House GOP proposals to tilt welfare reform and crime control efforts toward the right.

Most strikingly, support for the balanced-budget amendment, which is expected to face a House vote this week--has eroded substantially since last January, and a majority of those surveyed now oppose it.

Ambivalence also defines public attitudes toward Clinton. Broadening optimism about the economy has helped to lift his approval rating to its highest point in the last year, and Americans give high marks to many of his specific policy initiatives. But only 36% of registered voters, and only 1 in 5 independents, say they now support his reelection.

Of more immediate concern for Clinton, the poll reveals overwhelming opposition to what has become his most pressing legislative problem: winning congressional approval for a $40-billion package of loan guarantees for Mexico. By a margin of 81% to 15%, those polled said that they oppose guaranteeing Mexican loans in an effort to stem the crisis that has forced a massive devaluation in the peso.

Indeed, the loan guarantees find little support from any point along the ideological or partisan spectrum: More than three-fourths of Democrats, independents and Republicans oppose the idea.

The Times Poll, supervised by John Brennan, surveyed 1,353 adults nationwide from Jan. 19 through Jan. 22. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.

Nothing is more intriguing in the polling than the tension between the public’s broad ideological preferences, which generally lean toward the GOP, and their opinions on specific issues, which often bend toward positions held by Clinton and Democrats.

In a broad sense, the public emphatically endorses the Republican argument that government must be restrained. In the survey, nearly two-thirds said that they prefer a smaller government with fewer services, while just over 1 in 4 wants “a larger government with many services.”

Likewise, the poll finds extensive support for the general idea of shifting power away from Washington: 70% of those polled said that state and local governments do the best job of spending tax dollars (just 12% endorsed the federal government).

And the poll makes clear that many Americans have invested their faith in the new Republican congressional majority. Almost twice as many of those polled said that they expect to be better off than worse off as a result of the GOP takeover (though the largest group, almost 2 in 5, said they expect no change in their condition). By a 35% to 31% count, those polled said that Republicans, rather than the President, have the best ideas for solving the country’s problems. And most said that they want Clinton to compromise with the GOP rather than draw lines in the sand against Republican ideas.

Several Republican priorities drew substantial support in the survey: Almost 7 in 10 said that they like the GOP proposal to require three-fifths congressional approval for all tax increases; roughly the same number endorsed the line-item veto backed by both the GOP and Clinton; three-fourths backed the GOP-driven constitutional amendment to limit congressional terms to 12 years.

But on an array of other specific choices, the public endorses positions held by the Democrats, according to the poll. Should Congress have to specify where it would cut the deficit before passing a balanced-budget amendment? Congressional Republicans say no, but 86% of those polled said yes. Should term limits apply retroactively to sitting members of Congress? Congressional Republicans generally say no, but, like the White House, three-fourths of those polled said yes.

Many House Republicans are mobilizing for an effort to repeal the ban on assault weapons approved as part of last year’s anti-crime bill. But two-thirds of Americans, including three-fifths of both Republicans and conservatives, said that the ban should be maintained. Likewise, House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) has criticized Clinton’s national service program, which lets young people earn college grants by performing community service. But more than 7 in 10 of those surveyed, including more than 60% of Republicans and conservatives, like it.

In tonight’s State of the Union Address, Clinton is likely to continue his effort to contrast his domestic proposals with the GOP plans. The poll tested attitudes toward those contrasting agendas by asking Americans to choose between the competing proposals in five distinct areas--but not identifying the alternatives as Clinton or Republican ideas.

In all but one instance, those surveyed backed the Clinton alternative by margins of 2-to-1 or greater. And in most cases that support was consistent across racial, income, gender and ideological lines.

On crime, 72% of those surveyed said that they support the provisions in last year’s crime bill that funded prison construction, additional police officers and prevention programs; just 20% supported the idea, advanced by Senate Republicans, of shifting all the prevention money to pay for more prisons and police officers. More than 3 in 5 Republicans and conservatives--even 3 in 5 Republican men--preferred the existing approach.

On welfare, President Clinton has proposed requiring recipients to work after two years on the rolls but would provide public service jobs if none are available in the private sector. House Republicans want to let states cut off recipients after two years without guaranteeing them a job. By 66% to 29%, those surveyed preferred Clinton’s approach. A majority of both Republicans and conservatives preferred Clinton’s policy.

To try to reduce out-of-wedlock births, House Republicans want to cut off all welfare benefits to girls under 18 who bear children out of wedlock; Clinton has proposed instead requiring the mothers to live at home as a condition of receiving aid. By 58% to 28%, those surveyed prefer Clinton’s approach.

On taxes, 55% backed Clinton’s proposal of a deduction for college tuition and a tax credit for families with children and incomes under $75,000; 23% back the House GOP combination of a children’s tax credit for families with incomes up to $200,000 and reductions in capital-gains taxes. Americans in every income bracket, every spot on the ideological spectrum--Democrats, independents, Republicans, supporters of Ross Perot and President George Bush in 1992--prefer Clinton’s approach.

Only on Social Security did the public prefer the House Republican blueprint, with a 49% to 43% plurality endorsing the contract’s call to roll back Clinton’s 1993 tax increase on upper-income seniors.

Nearly two-thirds of those polled said that they want to limit unfunded mandates, the obligations Washington imposes on states without providing the money for them. Both chambers of Congress are considering such limits. But larger majorities support two specific mandates on the states: requiring local governments to meet federal clean water standards by building sewage treatment plants and mandating school districts to provide special education facilities for mentally disabled students.

In several respects, the poll found the public mood improving in the wake of last fall’s election. More than a third of Americans now say that the country is moving in the right direction, while 55% say that it is on the wrong track. Those are numbers hardly overflowing with optimism, but they constitute the most upbeat assessment of the nation’s direction since last January.

Good feelings about the economy appear to be lifting some of the gloom over the White House. In the survey, 51% said that they approve of Clinton’s economic performance--up from 43% in November. On foreign policy, Americans remain divided over Clinton’s performance, with 46% of those polled approving and 44% disapproving. Clinton’s overall performance won approval from 54%, while 40% disapproved.

* NATION’S MOOD: Charts show views on presidents and Congress. A5