Conejo Valley Leaders See Modest Economic Growth

Conejo Valley business, community and government leaders Thursday predicted slow but continued economic gains for 1995, as jobs and retail sales rebound and business foreclosures abate.

Speaker after speaker at Cal Lutheran’s second annual Conejo Valley Business Forecast said that better times are ahead.

“We’ve come through the worst,” said Jill Lederer, owner of 10 Domino’s pizza eateries and the former chairwoman of the Greater Conejo Valley Chamber of Commerce. “But we certainly don’t predict stampeding growth.”

Lederer said she expects about 10% more sales this year, which could translate into 20 new full-time jobs at her pizza parlors, which employ 250 people.

But the local economy’s escape from a four-year recession is still tentative, speakers said.

“The whole thing is like a delicate thread weaving through a whole tapestry of indicators,” said Jerry Parsons, owner of Rubber Duck Auto Centers. “It is really pretty fragile.”

Parsons said he plans to add six employees to his 21 full-time workers as he expands his auto-repair garage this year.

“Economic gains will be underwhelming,” said real estate attorney Brian J. Back. “(But) we are getting through the bad stuff.”

“While robust does not accurately describe transactional activity during 1994, a modest increase is an accurate description,” Back wrote in a report distributed at the forum.

Back said his bankruptcy cases are subsiding after peaking in 1994.

Robert S. Biery, treasurer for the city of Thousand Oaks, projected a 5% sales increase by midyear for the city and an increase of between 3% and 5% after that.

Keynote speaker Charles Maxey, dean of Cal Lutheran’s business school, said a recent survey by the university has left him “cautiously optimistic.”

While Maxey did not provide details of the survey results, economics professor Ali Akbari discussed some the findings after the forum.

Akbari said about two-thirds of the 204 Ventura County companies that responded expect an increase in sales this year, while 25% expect sales to remain even. “This is certainly good news,” Akbari said. More than one-third of the businesses plan to hire new workers this year.

“Employment is a lagging economic indicator,” Akbari said. “Businesses don’t hire until they are confident the gains are permanent.”

Meanwhile, half of the consumers polled said they expect the economy to remain level in 1995, while 33% expect improvement. “There’s a strong correlation to perception of the future economic condition and how consumers spend,” Akbari said.

The survey, which had a 6% margin of error, polled 500 randomly selected Ventura County residents.