Balanced-Budget, Aid-to-Mexico Efforts Face Problems

The proposed balanced-budget amendment and a package of aid for Mexico ran into stiff head winds Friday on Capitol Hill, while the Senate handily approved legislation that would make it more difficult for Congress to order state and local governments to start costly new programs.

A day after Republican-led House lawmakers took a first step toward a constitutional amendment to balance the federal budget, Democrats in the Senate warned that their support could depend on whether Republicans “come clean” with plans to bring the deficit to zero--a cut of at least $1.2 trillion by the year 2002.

If Republicans do not comply, Sen. John B. Breaux (D-La.) said, it would be “very, very difficult” to get enough Democratic votes to pass the measure. With 67 votes needed for passage, Republicans must win the support of at least 14 Democrats, as well as keep all GOP troops in line.

Senate opponents of the balanced-budget amendment may have been emboldened by recent polls showing its support slipping. A Los Angeles Times Poll conducted Wednesday and Thursday confirmed the results of a survey earlier in the week which showed that support for the amendment had dropped substantially since last year. In the latest poll, 47% favor the amendment and 46% oppose it.

Comparisons with a similar poll a year ago show that the amendment has held steady, or even gained a little ground among traditionally Republican groups such as suburbanites.

But it has lost ground among more Democratic groups, including the elderly, blacks and those with incomes of less than $20,000 a year--groups most likely to lose government assistance if federal spending were slashed.

In the House, a group of Republicans led by Speaker Newt Gingrich announced that they will try again to win House support for a balanced-budget provision that would require 60% of the House to approve future tax increases. The provision was defeated Thursday in the House.

Gingrich, backed by many of the 74 freshmen Republicans who had championed the idea, said Friday that he will schedule a vote in the House on the proposal again on April 15, 1996--the tax-day closest to the next election.

Although Senate Democrats and Republicans sparred over the balanced budget, they joined forces on the floor to pass the so-called unfunded mandates bill by a lopsided vote of 86 to 10. The bill “is the first step in forging a new partnership between Congress and our partners at the state and local level,” said Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole (R-Kan.).

Senate Republicans had made the bill one of their highest legislative priorities. While Senate Democrats had slowed the bill’s consideration and offered many of the 40 amendments, they said Friday that their intent was to make sure local communities are protected from being forced to pay for federal programs in the future.

The measure would prohibit federal agencies from enforcing any law that requires state and local governments to start a new program for which the federal government does not pay--unless Congress specifically waives the requirement.

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In the House, many Democrats have warned that the bill will erode the government’s ability to protect the nation’s air and water and to enforce health, labor and safety standards. But the bill is expected to pass easily there when it is taken up next week.

The $40-billion package of loan guarantees to Mexico has run into serious trouble on Capitol Hill. The Clinton Administration’s delay in crafting the details of a proposal has allowed the measure to languish for more than two weeks. Lawmakers have begun to reflect the opinions of constituents, many of whom strongly object to U.S. loan guarantees that could cost the nation billions if Mexico defaults.

According to a recent Times Poll, 79% of Americans surveyed oppose an aid plan for Mexico, while just 18% support it.

Dole offered a grim picture of the outlook for a $40-billion package of loan guarantees, telling reporters Friday, “something dramatic has got to happen to get this thing back on track. . . . It’s out there in limbo somewhere.”

Dole and several other senators met Friday afternoon with Mexican President Ernesto Zedillo to discuss ways to get the Mexican aid deal back on track.

“The President needs to step up to the plate,” Dole told reporters Friday. “He has to be more directly involved.” In the absence of the President’s commitment, he noted, lawmakers who backed a Mexico aid plan just two weeks ago have begun to withdraw their support.