Commentary : NEW RULES AND RIVALRIES GIVE SYNDICATORS THE SHIVERS

“You’re gonna be such a mogul.” Pregnant pause. “You are a mogul!”

That overheard pep talk from one TV deal maker to another was nicely representative of the hype factor at last month’s National Assn. of Television Program Executives convention in Las Vegas.

The annual event, which attracted a record 15,000-plus participants this time around, is an extravagant marketplace for the buying and selling of syndicated fare, including new shows and network reruns.

Celebrities such as pinup king Fabio, “Baywatch” star-producer David Hasselhoff and even Beavis and Butt-head in the flesh (well, pink-felt costumes) roamed the convention floor or were enthroned in glittering displays.

Their mission: to woo network and independent TV stations, convincing them that their talk show, magazine show, children’s show, game show, home-shopping show, action show or sitcom is the path to ratings and riches.

Before the NATPE bus figuratively rolled out of town--plastered with “Save PBS” stickers--there was also nervous chatter about syndicators’ fate in a changing marketplace. The go-go 1980s that allowed companies such as King World to establish such hugely profitable programs as “The Oprah Winfrey Show” and “Wheel of Fortune” have given way to a more competitive, less friendly environment.

New networks, revised federal rules and increasing rivalry for broadcast time from once-scorned but lucrative infomercials are affecting the health of syndication.

Viacom’s new UPN network and WB from Warner Bros. debuted recently with a combined six weekly hours of mostly self-generated programming--time that would have been available for syndicated shows.

And there are other alliances potentially freezing out syndicators. These include Fox’s agreement with New World stations and CBS’ deal with Group W to produce and air shows.

“It definitely has made a difference in business. It’s made it a lot more difficult,” Dick Askin of Samuel Goldwyn Television (distributor of “American Gladiators” and the new “Flipper”) says during a NATPE panel discussion.

Especially for smaller distributors and makers of action hours, which often rely on twice-weekly airings to make the difference between profit and loss.

This year, action dramas weren’t NATPE best-sellers--with the exception of a few shows like the “Baywatch” spinoff, “Baywatch Nights.”

One panelist suggested that alliances such as the CBS and Fox deals might turn out to be a disservice to participants as well as TV in general.

“With the alliances, you end up launching programs that don’t deserve to be launched and won’t be successful,” argues Chuck Larsen of MTM studios (“Rescue 911,” “Hill Street Blues”).

Bob Friedman of New Line (“Court TV” and films including “Menace II Society”) chides his pessimistic colleagues, calling the new networks and alliances just “another buyer out there.” But the syndication boat may be rocked further: The Federal Communications Commission is considering an end to a key rule, prime-time access.

The rule prevents network affiliates in the top 50 markets from airing network programs in the half-hour before prime time, which has provided a protected niche for independent syndicators. Many syndicators are gloomy about the prospect of losing the time period, especially since a change would coincide with another regulatory revision that allows networks to own and sell more of their programming.

But there are dissidents in the ranks.

Rich Frank, chairman of Walt Disney Television, argued that the prime-time access rule intended to promote diversity on TV instead has resulted in just three syndicators--King World, Paramount and Twentieth Television--controlling 93% of access time in the top markets.

All this jockeying for position is taking place in what the broadcasters deem a robust TV economy. But will either change or the status quo mean robust choices for viewers?

Consider just a few of the NAPTE offerings: a talk show hosted by Danny Bonaduce of “The Partridge Family” fame, a reality-based retread called “America’s Most Wanted: Final Justice.”

Does any of that make remote-control fingers twitch in anticipation?