PERSPECTIVE ON IMMIGRATION : Their Bags Are Packed in Tlacuitapa : A Mexican town with a long history of sending workers to California is largely unfazed by Proposition 187.

This rural town of about 3,000 inhabitants deep in the Mexican interior has sent its brightest, most energetic workers to California ever since the early 1940s, when they were first recruited as bracero contract laborers. As January ended, many of the town’s inhabitants were preparing to head north again, undeterred by the possible consequences of “la propuesta Wilson, “ as Proposition 187 is widely known here.

A random sample of Tlacuitapa residents interviewed in January showed that they are not acting out of ignorance. A remarkably high 90% knew that Proposition 187 was approved by California voters in November, and 86% can cite specific provisions of the measure, which would deny public services to illegal immigrants. Nevertheless, 71% of those with recent employment experience in the United States plan to return this year, and 76% say that Proposition 187 will have no effect on their plans to work or live in California.

Among the 24% who said they are less likely to migrate to California, many believe (erroneously) that Operation Gatekeeper, the concentrated border enforcement effort under way in the San Diego sector, is part of Proposition 187. These would-be migrants are concerned primarily about the increased difficulty and cost of illegal entry--not about being refused public benefits once they get to California. A small number plan to bypass California this year and migrate to states where anti-immigrant hostility is less strong.

In Tlacuitapa, we found that the perceived costs of living and working in post-187 California vary considerably according to family obligations. Young unmarried men see little to be lost, even if “la ‘87” means that they may be hassled more frequently by immigration authorities and police. Parents, however--even some with U.S. permanent legal resident status--worry about possible lack of access to medical care and schooling for their children. Virtually no one is concerned about the denial of welfare benefits, food stamps or other forms of public assistance, which they would not depend on even if Proposition 187 had never been passed. The universally held view here is that economic necessity, not laws and policies in el norte, will determine whether a Tlacuitapeno migrates or not.

Saturation media coverage of Proposition 187 within Mexico and the Border Patrol’s special operations have aroused widespread fears that the U.S. door is closing. Numerous emigrant families from Tlacuitapa did not make the usual holiday visit home this winter. Especially among those who suspect that Proposition 187 is just the prelude to much tougher enforcement of immigration laws, returning to Mexico for even a short visit now seems too risky. Thus Proposition 187 has increased the average length of stay in California as well as the likelihood of permanent settlement.

Such unintended consequences make a mockery of the arguments for Proposition 187. There never was any scientifically supportable evidence that the availability of free public education, basic medical care or any other type of tax-supported service has been a significant incentive for long-distance Mexican migrants, especially those coming from communities and families with a multigenerational history of employment in the United States.

These days, people in towns like Tlacuitapa have more serious things to worry about. The region’s agricultural economy is in desperate shape as a result of NAFTA and the peso devaluation that began on Dec. 19. Devaluation-driven inflation is pushing up the prices of necessities in rural stores. A flood of imports--processed meats and powdered milk, mostly from the United States and Canada--coupled with government price controls that benefit urban consumers have sharply depressed producer prices for fresh milk and meat. The costs of production have skyrocketed, as inputs such as cattle fodder--much of which also is imported--became much more expensive in Mexico’s newly opened free-market economy.

These are the harsh realities to which prospective U.S.-bound migrants in Mexico’s high-emigration areas are responding. Californians will soon learn that in passing Proposition 187, they have not altered the main course of the flow and probably have actually raised aggregate social-service costs by inducing more immigrant families already living in California to cut their ties with home.

In sum, the much-touted benefits of the Proposition 187 approach to immigration control are nowhere in sight; the costs, even before implementation, are already evident.