Zedillo’s Move Was Bold; Was It Wise? : Mexico: The president must expect the Salinas arrest to unify the country--if the charge holds.

Just as many shrewd political observers in Mexico were forecasting that President Ernesto Zedillo would soon throw in the towel, cry uncle and go home to ride bikes with his kids, divine providence appeared, disguised as the attorney general.

Everyone else can only wonder exactly what went on this week in Mexico. For those of us who are used to reading the tea leaves of Mexican politics, the best scenario is as follows:

Perhaps the attorney general (who is the first member of an opposition party to hold a Cabinet position) showed up at Los Pinos, the Mexican equivalent of the White House, to report that his office had uncovered many leads into the assassination of Jose Francisco Ruiz Massieu and they all pointed toward Raul Salinas de Gortari, the ex-leftist, ex-hippie, troublesome brother of ex-president Carlos Salinas de Gortari. But, surely the top cop said, this is hot stuff that requires a political call without precedent in Mexico’s turbulent history.

Then, perhaps, Zedillo thought it over carefully and decided to let the attorney general’s office go ahead with the arrest of Raul Salinas. Zedillo must have remembered his campaign promise to restore the credibility of the justice system; what better opportunity to prove his commitment than to arrest a member of such a prominent family and demonstrate that there is no impunity in Mexico?

But what could be the political consequences of such a bold move? Well, according to most polls, Carlos Salinas’ image with Mexico’s public had become considerably tarnished. The conservative party would enthusiastically support the attorney general. And the left has been mad at Salinas since the election of 1988.

Zedillo must have thought, “Carpe diem!” Proceeding with this course could facilitate a national political agreement unified against the past administration. If a detente could be reached with Cuauhtemoc Cardenas and his party’s leadership on the left, all political forces in Congress could be unified and peace in Chiapas could be restored through a political agreement that places the conflict in its proper dimension, as a regional problem.

The next step involved predicting the internal economic reaction of the announcement implicating Raul Salinas. First of all, Mexican citizens and investors would have to be reminded that the Salinas administration was responsible for the financial crisis that evolved into the current economic crisis. As president, Carlos Salinas himself precipitated the judgment against him on this issue. Breaking with tradition, he came out of the cold on Tuesday to speak out on television in an attempt to defend his record. The results were the opposite. His public statement gave the bloodthirsty Mexican press the chance to go for the jugular. This in turn solidified public opinion against him.

As for the 22 billionaires who made their fortunes under the generous shadow of Salinas, well, Zedillo must have seen no problem there, either. As one insider reminded me, the rich don’t eat poison.

There was something else for Zedillo to consider: If politics are taken care of (he must have thought), we can restore confidence in Mexico. The Americans will see we mean business, and we can help the White House deal with the other House.

Now, all this may work--if the case against Raul Salinas is solid. So far, there is nothing but circumstantial evidence, hearsay and the confession of a low-ranking political operative. Even worse, the prosecution has not been able to give a motive for why a shrewd businessman would plot the assassination of a politician who was used to wheeling and dealing.

The obsidian knives are out in Mexico and the times are ripe for sacrifice.

The real problem would be if this house of cards collapses. If Zedillo made these choices and if they turn out to be wrong, he will not survive. Most likely he would be forced to resign, dragging the country with him into the black hole. And no one would be there to rescue him.