Most Orange County Voters Oppose Tax Hike : Times poll: Fiscal recovery proposal on June 27 ballot trails by 57% to 36%. Supervisors also fare poorly.

Signaling an uphill campaign for Orange County’s proposed half-cent sales tax increase, a large majority of voters say they oppose the ballot measure designed to bail the county out of its financial crisis, according to a new poll commissioned by The Times.

The poll--the first taken since the Board of Supervisors chose to place the tax increase on a special ballot June 27--found that voters oppose the levy by 57% to 36%. By a 51% to 42% margin, voters also disapprove of the supervisors’ decision to put the tax proposal, Measure R, before them, the poll found.

“It doesn’t look good,” said Supervisor William G. Steiner. “We’ve got a lot of education to go for the tax increase to stand a chance at all.”

William J. Popejoy, the county’s chief executive officer, said he was not surprised by the poll results and had expected greater opposition to the tax. Popejoy said it will be important to educate voters about the consequences of the county’s defaulting on its debt and the failure to repay bondholders and investors.

“There are still a lot of questions in the public’s mind as to why this tax is necessary, and people haven’t had to live with this every day like my staff and I have,” Popejoy said. “I am confident that voters will be in favor of the sales tax because that is what will preclude a state takeover and a huge amount of litigation. It’s the only way out.”

If the increase is approved, the county’s sales tax will rise from 7.75% to 8.25%--the same as Los Angeles County’s--for the next decade. The increase would generate an estimated $135 million annually, which the county would use to borrow an additional $700 million.

On Monday, the Orange County counsel submitted the recommended ballot language for Measure R to the Board of Supervisors, which is expected to approve a final version at today’s meeting.

Of poll respondents who said they would vote against the tax, 45% indicated it was unfair to be asked to pay for others’ mistakes and another 26% said they are opposed to any new tax. Others said there are alternatives for raising money, such as selling assets, and several said the supervisors must quit before they would consider voting for a tax.

Responses to the poll suggest that opposition to the so-called “bankruptcy recovery tax” is closely linked to voter anger at supervisors’ handling of the county’s financial crisis.

The percentage of voters who believe supervisors have done a poor job has increased from 34% in a Times-commissioned poll on county finances in December to 48% today. Those who think the supervisors have done an excellent or good job has decreased from 21% in December to 13% today.

Both polls were conducted by Mark Baldassare & Associates. The current poll was done Thursday through Sunday. The random telephone survey questioned 519 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5%.

“I think the measure faces a difficult uphill battle to win in June,” said Mark Baldassare, a UC Irvine professor of urban planning.

“It has several things going against it: Older voters are against the increase and are also the most likely to turn out to vote,” he said. “And the opposition to this measure is tied to a very negative rating for the Board of Supervisors, who put it on the ballot. It’s off to a very, very rocky start.”

Anti-tax activists said the poll results confirmed their belief that voter opposition to the tax is widespread.

“We’ve known for some time that no one wants this tax,” said Carole Walters, a leader of the Committees of Correspondence, a vocal anti-tax group. “People are mad about it, and they are going to fight it.”

“It sounds like this is a poll that truly measured how people feel about this,” added group member Bruce Whitaker. “There’s very little support for it out there.”

The the opposition to the sales tax proposal was in contrast to the success of Measure M, a half-cent sales tax increase to finance transportation improvements that was approved by voters in November, 1990. Measure M was behind by just one percentage point, 46% to 45%, two months before it passed, according to a Times-commissioned poll taken at the time. One month before the tax was approved, the poll found it ahead, 47% to 37%, and it ultimately passed 54% to 46%.

Baldassare said it was easier for voters to approve Measure M because they could see freeway gridlock every day. They have more difficulty envisioning bankruptcy problems, he said.

In the latest poll, nearly six in 10 of those who favored the proposed sales tax increase said it was the only way they could see to raise the money necessary to help the county out of its crisis.

Another 8% said they wanted to maintain county services, 7% said they would approve it to protect schools and law enforcement and another 7% said they wanted to avoid hurting the local economy. The remainder said they wanted to avoid more budget cuts and layoffs, help the county avoid default and share the burden of the financial crisis.

Baldassare and others believe that despite the devastating impact the bankruptcy has had on Orange County’s financial prospects, most poll respondents have yet to feel an effect on themselves, their school districts or their quality of life.

In the January poll, only two in 10 voters said they believed that cuts in local services or education would affect them. In the latest poll, about three in 10 said they had concerns that the cutbacks would hurt them personally.

There is also growing worry over whether the collapse of the county’s investment pool, which contained the money of nearly 200 school districts, cities and other public entities, will hurt the quality of life and education in Orange County.

In January, 17% of voters said their quality of life would be hurt substantially. In the new survey, the percentage had grown to 28%. Those who believe schools would be affected significantly increased from 22% in January to 34% now.

Although concern is on the rise, it is not an overriding fear, the poll suggests.

“There is still a lot of denial out there,” Steiner said. “There is still not a full appreciation for the depth of this problem, such as the implication of us going into default.”

Should the sales tax fail June 27, Steiner said, “a state trustee will be in here on the 28th of June and it will be the ultimate test to see whether the state of California backs up our loans.”

One piece of good news for local officials is voter opposition in the poll to having the state take over the county’s finances in exchange for lending it $200 million a year. That move is opposed by a margin of 52% to 28%.

“As unhappy as people are with the local leadership here, they are more distrustful of a detached, legislative body and bureaucracy in Sacramento,” Steiner said.

As opposed to the supervisors, who have large negative ratings in the poll, Popejoy was given a good or excellent rating by 30% of voters and a fair rating by 35% of voters. Only 15% said Popejoy was doing a poor job.

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How the Poll Was Conducted

The poll was conducted by Mark Baldassare & Associates. The telephone survey questioned 600 adult Orange County residents, including 519 registered voters, April 6-9 using a computer-generated random sample that included listed and unlisted telephone numbers. The margin of error for the sample of registered voters is plus or minus 4.5% at the 95% confidence level. That means it is 95% certain the results are within 4.5 percentage points of what they would be if every registered voter were interviewed.

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Saying No to Tax Hike

Measure R faces a tough battle because many voters believe they should not pay for the mistakes of others, and because they oppose new taxes of any kind. Fifty-seven percent oppose Measure R, 36% support it, and 7% are undecided.

Why Voters Oppose Measure R (among 57% saying no) Unfair to pay for others’ mistakes: 45% Oppose new taxes: 26% Other ways to raise money: 14% Supervisors must quit first: 6% Other/don’t know: 9% *

Why Voters Support Measure R (among 36% saying yes) Only way to raise enough money: 57% Maintain county services: 8% Protect schools, law enforcement: 7% Avoid hurting economy: 7% No more budget cuts, layoffs: 5% Other/don’t know: 16% Source: Times Orange County Poll