As Earth Day Turns 25, Planet Finds Reasons to Celebrate and Fear : Ecology: One observer predicts that pollution in the Western World will end ‘almost painlessly’ within our lifetimes. But not everyone is so optimistic, and the Third World is another story.

After 25 years of Earth Day warnings from environmentalists about pending ecological doom, author Gregg Easterbrook has a refreshingly different message for those who care about the planet: Cheer up.

On April 22, it’s expected that millions of Americans will celebrate Earth Day’s silver anniversary by planting trees, cleaning up beaches and attending rallies. It’s also expected that thousands of commentators will use the day to reflect on a quarter-century of green activism and the challenges ahead.

Easterbrook has emerged as a prominent voice in the latter endeavor. A contributing editor to Newsweek, he has written a book called “A Moment On the Earth: The Coming Age of Environmental Optimism.”

The 745-page book, extensively researched and doggedly upbeat, reviews more than three decades of environmental doom-saying, from Rachel Carson’s “Silent Spring” in 1962 to current alarms about global warming.

In nearly all cases, Easterbrook writes, things have turned out much better than predicted by what he calls the “environmental orthodoxy.”

Easterbrook makes some sweeping predictions of his own--that pollution in the Western World will end “almost painlessly” within our lifetimes, that most environmental catastrophes, such as runaway global warming, are almost certain to be avoided.

But he also warns that optimism should not become complacency, and worries that anti-environmentalists will pluck passages from his book out of context to argue against additional environmental protections.

He cites many environmental success stories:

* Air. U.S. smog has declined by about a third since 1970, even though 85% more vehicles are now on the road. Airborne levels of lead have declined 98%; annual emissions of carbon monoxide are down 24%, and sulfur dioxide, the chief cause of acid rain, is down 30%.

* Water. In 1972, only a third of all U.S. bodies of water were safe for fishing and swimming. Today, almost two-thirds are safe.

* Recycling. From humble beginnings, recycling has become big business. Nationwide, more than 22% of all municipal solid waste is recovered for recycling or composting.

Easterbrook said he wrote the book--scheduled for release Thursday by Viking--because good news is suppressed by both sides of the environmental debate. Liberal environmentalists don’t like good news because it hurts their agenda of creating the appearance of a crisis in need of immediate action, he said. Conservative opponents, meanwhile, don’t want to admit that environmental laws actually work.

But they do work, Easterbrook has concluded.

“Not only is the Western World getting better, it’s taking place spectacularly fast by natural standards,” he said in a telephone interview from his home in Arlington, Va.

“I think the public will support future environmental initiatives much more readily if they’re convinced that the programs are working and conditions are good. If you constantly scare people to death, if you constantly tell them things are falling apart--and things never fall apart--then you lose credibility.”

To hear Easterbrook tell it, environmental progress happens almost automatically. He calls it “organic self-adaptation--society reacting just as nature would to self-correct a resource imbalance.”

But those closer to the struggle say the self-correction rarely comes easily. They note that the alarmist rhetoric Easterbrook criticizes is what helped achieve most of the environmental progress he praises.

Earth Day in 1970 rallied public support against entrenched industrial powers, said Denis Hayes, an organizer of that original celebration and now director of a Seattle-based environmental foundation.

“We were almost unstoppable for a few years,” Hayes said. “That didn’t last. For the last 20 years, it has been a struggle every inch of the way to get good bills passed.”

He is decidedly less cheerful than Easterbrook.

“In 25 years, we’ve made some terrific strides in cleaning up the air and water and removing toxics,” Hayes said. “But there are serious issues out there that need attention.”

U.S. environmentalists who say they might have welcomed Easterbrook’s celebratory tone last year are now bracing for battles with a Republican Congress intent on weakening environmental laws.

And struggles in American politics are small potatoes compared to global environmental challenges.

While Easterbrook points out that the United States now treats virtually 100% of its sewage, others look to the Third World, where only 2% is treated.

In Abidjan, Ivory Coast, Earth Day will be like any other day for hundreds of Africans who wade into the river to wash clothes by beating them against stones. By afternoon, the river turns foamy with soap and filthy residue.

In Haiti, the streets of Port-au-Prince are jammed with old vehicles spewing so much pollution that riders wear surgical masks.

Outside Sao Paulo in Brazil, the Tiete River resembles a septic tank, covered with chemical foam, its banks littered with garbage and industrial waste.

Hayes worries about the loss of biological diversity through habitat destruction, and says progress toward heading off global warming by reducing carbon dioxide emissions has been “a huge disappointment.”

For still more discouraging news, consider world population, which drives nearly all other environmental problems.

Since 1970, global population has grown from 3.7 billion to 5.7 billion, and it continues to increase by about 90 million people a year. By the time you finish reading this article, there will be about 1,700 more mouths to feed on the planet than when you started.

Developed nations have cut their growth rates, but they’re still growing nonetheless.

“The rates can go down and people think we don’t have to worry anymore. But the base numbers are still huge,” said Susan Weber, executive director of Zero Population Growth.

Even small increases in U.S. population can have a tremendous effect on the world’s resource and energy supplies. The average meat-eating, car-driving, air-traveling American consumes as much energy as three Japanese, 12 Chinese, 147 Bangladeshis or 422 Ethiopians, Weber said.

“In terms of environmental impact, we’re still No. 1--and everyone wants to be like us,” she said.

Whether you’re more stirred to action by Easterbrook’s soothing balm of optimism or Weber’s unsettling statistics, both agree there’s ample evidence that vigilance still is called for on this 25th Earth Day.

Weber says global problems may seem daunting but can be solved, one person at a time. The old slogan, “Think globally, act locally,” has never been more appropriate, she said.

“I’m not saying everyone should put on a hair shirt and renounce all material wealth,” Weber said. “But I am saying we should look at what we’re doing and how we’re doing it. Is it making us happy, and are our children going to thank us for what we’re doing? I suspect they won’t, because they’re going to have to pay the bill.”