NEWS ANALYSIS : U.S., Vietnam Quietly Increase Diplomatic Ties

The Clinton Administration is moving quietly but steadily toward establishing full diplomatic relations with Vietnam, a move that could occur before the end of the year.

In the weeks since the commemoration of the 20th anniversary of the end of the Vietnam War, there have been low-key visits and exchanges between Washington and Hanoi aimed at settling outstanding disputes and at broadening ties between the two countries.

A stately, colonial-era mansion here, which once housed the Emperor of Tonkin, is about to be fixed up as a residence for the first U.S. ambassador to Hanoi.

A U.S. Defense Department officer is starting language training to come here next year as a military attache.

Establishment of full diplomatic relations with Hanoi would be the biggest symbolic step toward putting to rest the bitter emotions of the Vietnam War.

Secretary of State Warren Christopher recently told The Times that he hopes the United States can eventually reach the point where Vietnam is thought of as “a country, not a war.”

Diplomatic relations with Hanoi would also have considerable practical significance for U.S. companies, opening the way for them to get the U.S. government-sponsored financing and insurance that would help them do business here.

For their part, Vietnamese officials make it plain that they are aware of the United States’ political calendar, and they want full normalization this year--before the 1996 presidential campaign is in full swing.

“Next year, it [normalization] is impossible. And the year after that, there could be a new government [in Washington], or President Clinton will be busy restructuring his Cabinet,” Ambassador Le Van Bang, head of Vietnam’s liaison office in Washington, said in an interview early this month.

Top Vietnamese officials are also eager for full relations to come soon because of the economic benefits they hope will follow.

In Hanoi, officials talk repeatedly of their desire to get most-favored-nation trading status, which would permit Vietnamese goods to be sold in the United States with the same low tariffs enjoyed by most countries.

A U.S. presidential delegation assigned to determine the fate of the 1,619 Americans still missing in action in Vietnam since the war’s end has just completed its third trip to Hanoi. U.S. officials told a news conference that they now believe Vietnam is making good-faith efforts to cooperate and is not holding anything back.

Hershel W. Gober, deputy secretary of Veteran Affairs and the delegation’s leader, raised the prospect of establishing diplomatic relations with Vietnam at a news conference here Tuesday--suggesting that this will be the next policy issue on the agenda.

“That decision will be made by the President,” he said. “We will report to the President, and he will review the progress that has been made [on MIAs], and he alone will make the decision” on diplomatic relations.

Gober’s entourage included leading officials of the State Department, the Pentagon and the National Security Council, some of whom had their own extensive meetings with Vietnamese leaders on subjects beyond Americans missing in action from the war.

After the U.S. delegation left Hanoi, Vietnamese officials seemed delighted.

“I think that both sides agreed that we are satisfied with each other’s cooperation, and we think it is a good thing for both countries . . . that we push up the process of normalization,” acting Foreign Minister Tran Quang Co said in an interview Wednesday.

Apart from the MIA delegation, several other U.S. officials are visiting Hanoi this spring. Those trips serve to lay the groundwork for diplomatic relations by giving the Administration the arguments it needs to fend off critics when it is ready to make the announcement.

A State Department human rights official came here for formal talks this month, enabling the Administration to say it is not ignoring continuing repression by Vietnam’s Communist regime.

A top official responsible for anti-narcotic efforts, Assistant Secretary of State Robert Delbard, will visit Hanoi in the next few weeks--putting the Administration in position to assert that Vietnam is helping to stop the flow of drugs from Southeast Asia to the United States.

A few Republican leaders, including former President George Bush, are expected to visit in the next few months. Their trips could enable the Clinton Administration to shore up political support in the United States for diplomatic ties.

The Administration served notice this week that it is talking to Vietnam about broader security and foreign policy issues in Asia. Vietnam is about to join the Assn. of Southeast Asian Nations, whose members have voiced concern about China’s increased defense spending and acquisitions.

Winston Lord, the assistant secretary of state for East Asia who was part of the presidential delegation, acknowledged that one subject that U.S. and Vietnamese officials talked about was the Spratly Islands, where China and the Philippines have been locked in a territorial dispute.

After meeting with the U.S. delegation, Do Muoi, who as Communist Party general secretary is Vietnam’s top official, also alluded to broader security cooperation with the United States.

“We look forward to active contribution on the part of big countries, among them the United States, to join the Southeast Asian countries in maintaining peace and stability for development cooperation in the region,” Vietnamese newspapers quoted him as saying.

Lord and other U.S. officials repeatedly maintain that the top priority for U.S. policy is still resolving the fate of American MIAs.

Members of the U.S. delegation said Vietnamese officials had turned over what Gober termed “valuable new information” about the MIAs, which will be given to U.S. experts for analysis.

Asked when the Administration will conclude that it has gotten enough information about the MIAs to upgrade ties with Vietnam, Gober suggested that the decision is now up to Clinton and his top advisers. “That decision will be made at a paygrade much higher than mine,” he said.