PERSPECTIVE ON BOSNIA : The Serbs Are Ready to Die for Their Cause. Are We? : Let’s negotiate because saving face is not worth the higher cost in lives that further confrontation would bring.

Western governments should deal with the Bosnian crisis through negotiation, not through threats or the use of force. The choice is quite simple: either negotiate something more acceptable to the Bosnian Serbs, or fight a major war to defend Western “principles.” The former involves a political cost in the unpalatable retreat from principle. The latter costs Western lives. Either way there are costs, costs that do not diminish with time.

The West’s initial reaction to Bosnian Serb hostage-taking--a strengthening of U.N. forces in Bosnia--soothes our frustrated desire to “do something” as well as prepare for the unlikely event that Bosnian Serbs would rashly begin to harm the hostages, in which case the West would react swiftly, with little care for the costs. Strengthening U.N. forces, however, doesn’t address the longer-term problem for the United States in Bosnia. Indeed, it worsens it.

We are aiming at a moving target with a static solution. Yes, a more robust United Nations could better protect itself against the current threats of snipers, roadblocks and so on. But newfound strength just ratchets the cycle up one notch, encouraging local combatants--not only Serbs--to strike at tanks, helicopters, aircraft or other more significant targets, again testing Western resolve. The shoot-down of an American F-16 last week did not produce a Western military response, but each such incident raises the question of whether the West is ready to escalate to the next level.

If we were ready to follow through, escalation could be very rapid. We must ask ourselves, what are our goals? It’s one thing to envision the desirable scenario: After being hit hard, Bosnian Serbs crumble and submit to Western demands. It’s also necessary, unfortunately, to think about what happens if the initial military operation doesn’t work. The West has not done that, nor has it defined the outcome it wants. The danger is that the West will slide into a much larger war.

If in the very short run, U.N. forces become more secure by retiring into well-defended firebases, this renders impossible the current U.N. mission of delivering humanitarian aid and manning separation lines between the combatants. The United Nations can’t be both neutral and a combatant. We put ourselves in the absurd situation of having the protection of U.N. forces be the only reason for a U.N. presence in Bosnia.

Withdrawal, however, is equally dismal. It’s not at all a technically simple operation. In all probability it would cost hundreds of Western lives, including hostages’--hostages who would continue to be taken, probably by all sides. Withdrawal would leave Bosnia in shambles. It also would be an open invitation for Croatia and Serbia to resume full-scale war. Because extraction of the U.N. forces is so dangerous, in effect all 22,000 of them in Bosnia are hostages.

Ultimately the West must take the Serb interests into account, they are the most numerous group in the region. Indeed, the Bosnian Serbs were not that far from the plan offered by the five-nation Contact Group (United States, Britain, France, Russia and Germany), which is mediating the crisis. With some further inducements, combined with pressure from Slobodan Milosevic, there is a good chance they could be persuaded to settle. Confrontation would be far less likely to move them, because they feel they have little left to lose. They are ready to die for their cause. Are we?

There may be more justice in concessions than appears at first glance. Morally, it’s sensible to ask whether striking a deal with the Bosnian Serbs might be less costly in human life than fighting a war to impose upon the indigenous people a settlement they find politically unacceptable. Put another way, the costs of Western political theater--sparing sensitive Western politicians an embarrassing retreat from the rhetorical moral high ground--may well be measured in human life.