Support Sluggish for O.C. Tax Hike : Bankruptcy: A June 27 ballot proposal to generate bailout funds does not have a majority, a Times poll finds. But 15% remain undecided.

With little more than two weeks to go before the election, support among Orange County voters for a tax proposal aimed at yanking the county out of its bankruptcy crisis falls short of a majority, according to a poll by the Orange County edition of The Times.

Voters are divided on the proposed half-cent sales tax increase, with opponents outnumbering supporters, 45% to 40%, the poll shows. The contest is still fluid; 15% of those surveyed are undecided on the levy, which will go before the voters in a special election June 27.

For those leading the campaign to pass the tax increase, known as Measure R, the poll contained more disheartening news: The gap is wider among those considered most likely to vote. Of likely voters, 50% oppose the tax hike, 37% are in favor and 13% have yet to make up their minds.

“I think it’s very much an uphill battle,” said Paul Nussbaum, top adviser to William J. Popejoy, the county’s chief executive officer. Popejoy, the architect of the county’s bankruptcy recovery plan, has been the top advocate of Measure R, persuading the Board of Supervisors in March to place the tax increase before voters.

“As has been said from the very beginning, this issue is difficult and obviously very complicated,” said board Chairman Gaddi H. Vasquez, who has said he will vote for the tax, which requires a simple majority for passage. “It has to do, in the long term, with our ability to build the facilities and structures that are so important to our quality of life in Orange County. That’s what’s in jeopardy here.”

Measure R would raise the sales tax from 7.75% to 8.25%--the same as Los Angeles County--for 10 years. It would raise $130 million annually, against which the county could borrow to help bail itself out of the largest municipal bankruptcy in U. S. history.

Supporters, who include three of the five county supervisors and other top county officials, say passage of the tax hike is necessary to maintain health and safety services and repay nearly $2 billion in debts.

Opponents, including Supervisor Jim Silva, contend that county leaders did not exhaust other alternatives before turning to the sales tax increase. Supervisor Roger R. Stanton has yet to announce his position on Measure R.

Still, the poll suggests that the Yes on R campaign, aided by a barrage of mailers and vocal support from Popejoy and Sheriff Brad Gates, has gained some ground in the past two months.

In April, soon after the Board of Supervisors decided to place the tax hike on the ballot, 57% of those surveyed in a Times Orange County poll said they would vote against the measure, compared to 45% now.

But most of those former opponents appear to be fence-sitters, not supporters of Measure R--at least not yet. The number of undecided voters has nearly doubled during the period, from 7% in April to 15%. The percentage who say they will vote for the tax hike is up only slightly, from 36% two months ago to 40%.

Both polls were conducted by Mark Baldassare and Associates. The latest poll was conducted June 2-5. The random telephone survey questioned 1,002 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points for the total, and plus or minus 5 percentage points for the sample of 397 likely voters.

Supervisor William G. Steiner, who is supporting the measure, said he takes heart from the poll’s high percentage of undecided voters, saying he hopes some may yet be induced to back the tax.

“With this increased number of undecided voters, the need to educate them to make an informed choice is even more important than before,” Steiner said. “It shows that [the tax increase] still has a chance.”

But the poll also found a deep undercurrent of alienation from and distrust of county government among those opposed to the so-called bankruptcy recovery tax. Responses to the poll suggest that for many people, a “no” vote on the tax proposal is closely linked to a low regard for county leaders and concern that money already given to the county in taxes is being squandered.

“The taxpayer is always standing in the wings and we’re supposed to take it and take it,” said Harry Smissen, 61, of Laguna Niguel, who plans to vote no. “I’m just not going to do it this time. . . . It just sticks in my craw.”

Smissen, an inventory manager for a company that builds telephone systems, said he might be less negative about the tax if the supervisors in office at the time of the bankruptcy had resigned.

In the poll, nearly 4 in 10 of those who said they would vote against Measure R said they opposed the idea of any new tax. Another 28% said they believed it was unfair to be asked to pay for the mistakes of others, 9% said there were other ways to raise money, and 5% said they were rejecting the increase because there were no guarantees on how it would be used.

Of those who said they plan to vote for the tax increase, just over 3 in 10 said they believe the tax hike is the only way to raise enough money to boost the county out of its crisis.

Another 15% said they believe the tax increase would help end the bankruptcy quickly, 10% said it would protect schools and law enforcement from further cuts, and 9% said it would help pay back the cities and school districts that lost money in the county’s failed investment pool.

“I’m convinced that it’s necessary, partly to help protect the schools,” said Ken Sims of Buena Park, 37, an aerospace engineer. “I don’t have children, but I’m very, very concerned about that issue.”

For county employee Robert Wilbert, 53, voting yes on the tax increase is no longer a matter of intention: He has already mailed in an absentee ballot bearing his vote.

“We just need to get this bankruptcy over with,” said Wilbert, a groundskeeper at Ronald W. Caspers Regional Park and an official with the Service Employees International Union, Local 187, which represents 525 blue-collar county workers.

Another part of his reasoning, Wilbert said, was the hope that passage of the sales tax might help him and other county employees hang onto their jobs. With more than 1,000 workers laid off, the fear of deeper cuts is widespread among county employees. “It’s an undercurrent for everyone,” he said.

But such direct concerns about the bankruptcy’s impact appear to have eased in recent weeks, the poll found, and may be one reason the measure is trailing at this point, said Baldassare, a professor of urban planning at UC Irvine.

Most poll respondents--and Orange County residents as a whole--have yet to experience any direct impact of the financial crisis on their school districts or their cities.