NEWS ANALYSIS : Measure R Campaign Making Little Headway : Referendum: The No side is still well ahead among likely voters. Undecided block holds key to O.C. tax.

Scaling a wall of voter anger and mistrust, the Yes on Measure R campaign has spent lavishly and flooded Orange County with mail in the past month, only to keep its campaign barely competitive.

But while the drive to approve the half-cent sales tax for is trailing, its persistent appeals for support in the past month--delivered by mail, in public appearances, on the radio and on cable television--have shaken loose a big block of No votes, moving many to the undecided category and a smaller number to the Yes side, according to a new Times Orange County Poll.

Significantly, those gains also have reduced the No vote below 50%.

The poll found that voters oppose the half-cent sales tax for the county’s bankruptcy recovery by a margin of 45% to 40%, with 15% undecided. In early April, the margin was 57% to 36%, with 7% undecided.

Equally important, neither side now has a majority of voters in any of the dozen demographic and political categories measured by the poll. The balance of power is in the undecided column.

By mining the undecideds and further pressing its dollar-driven campaign to boost proponent turnout, the Yes side could just perhaps pull an upset in the June 27 special election.

“Except for this big undecided group,” the task for the Yes on R campaign appears to be “mission impossible,” said Mark Baldassare, who conducted the polls for the Times. Among those the poll identifies as “likely voters”--a group that was not identified in the April poll--the No side leads 50% to 37%, with 13% undecided.

The most recent Times Orange County Poll of 1,002 registered voters was conducted June 2-5 and has a 3% margin of error.

“Everything has to go just right” for the Measure R proponents, if the tax is to pass, he said.

The measure’s proponents face several daunting challenges. Not only must they capture most of those who are now undecided, as well as woo some who are against the sales tax, they must also persuade these folks to vote. The election is taking place at the threshold of the summer vacation period, when many schools will be closed and parents--a key Yes constituency--become free to leave town.

It is a truism in Orange County that taxes lose in elections when the turnout is low; and that is what typically happens in special elections. That’s because consistent voters--those who vote in election after election--tend to be older, better educated and richer, and they are generally anti-tax.

“There has to be a high turnout, 40% to 45% at least” for this to pass, said Bruce Nestande, who served six years as a county supervisor and also led both Measure M transportation sales tax elections--the one that lost by 6 percentage points in a 1989 special election when the turnout was 22.6%, and the one that won by 10 percentage points in the 1990 general election, which had a turnout of 62.1%

But this election is looking like anything but a typical off-year or special election. It has high visibility and voter interest.

Already, a stunning 151,000 people have applied for absentee ballots, and the total is rising by about 10,000 a day. No one knows when it will taper off. If the absentee ballots represents a third of the total vote--which would not be unusual--then the turnout would likely reach or surpass 40%.

Interestingly, the poll shows the Yes side leading 44% to 41% among those who say they intend to vote absentee. That group is usually more conservative than the average voter.

Polling data, however, shows voter interest is short of the level that has historically provided victory for a tax measure. Seven out of every 10 voters said they have a “strong intention” to vote, similar to the 66% who expressed those intentions prior to Measure M’s initial loss. In 1990, when Measure M won during a gubernatorial election year, the number with strong intentions to vote was 86%.

Voter enthusiasm is also highest among the groups where the No side is ahead; Republicans, those 55 and older, homeowners and those earning $50,000 or more.

But proponents see plenty to encourage them in the poll’s snapshot of attitudes among the county’s 1.1 million registered voters just three weeks before the balloting.

“I see folks questioning themselves on the No side, asking ‘Is this the right thing to do?’ and moving to the undecideds or to Yes,” said Sheriff Brad Gates, who chairs the Citizens for Fiscal Responsibility, the lead Yes on R committee. “It shows they are starting to set their anger aside and now starting to focus on the issue, which is just about the time this happens in most elections.”

“They are now focusing on what [they] should . . . do as a responsible citizen in the worst crisis this county will ever face,” he said.

The Yes campaign has had a marked impact on registered voters in general from April to now, according to the polls. (Because no determination of “likely voter” was done in April, the comparison can only be made among all voters.)

Gains were scored in every voter category; and significant ones came among Republicans and older voters--groups that are more likely to vote and have a high antipathy to taxes. Among Republicans, for instance, the No vote has fallen from 62% to 48%, with the 14 percentage point loss going equally to the Yes side (38%) and undecided (14%).

Also, those favoring the tax are now ahead among Democrats, 45% to 38%, with the No side losing 11 percentage points to the undecided since April. Proponents also surged ahead among the 35-to-54 age group, where 18 percentage points fell out of the No column. Among these voters, Measure R leads 45% to 41%, with 11% undecided.

Buck Johns, a member of Citizens Against the Tax Increase and also a board member of the conservative Lincoln Club, said you “expect a campaign to move folks. The Yes campaign has spent a lot of bucks.”

Johns is zeroing in on the likely voters, however, and counting on the county’s antipathy to taxes. “Between now and the election, people will begin to focus on it, and as you focus it is hard to get a Yes vote on taxes. It gets progressively harder. The No votes will pick up more than a proportionate share of undecideds.

“There is a certain passion you get when you are looking at taxes and giving the government money,” he said. “I think the tougher deal is that they are asking voters to give money back to the ones who lost it.”

The poll shows that the public is angry, and that is a significant boon to tax opponents.

Voters express enormous scorn for the Board of Supervisors, and more than half believe that “county leaders” waste “a lot” of tax money and “pay very little or no attention” to what their constituents think, the poll found.

Voters want a pound of flesh and may simply vote No to express their outrage and mistrust, said half a dozen people active in county politics who regularly take the pulse of people they encounter at the store, eateries or on the phone.

Listen to Larry Agran, a Democrat and former mayor of Irvine, who has come out against the tax and suspects that another and better tax proposal will come along.

“There is tremendous anger, largely unfocused,” he said. “I feel it ought to be focused on those whose gross negligence caused this. People are angry, and the more angry they are the more they are inclined to behave in a negative fashion.”

He says he would reconsider his vote, and Measure R might win, if the supervisors took responsibility for their lack of oversight by resigning or pledging not to run again.

Agran derided elected city and school officials who are seeking a 100% return on their governmental bodies’ investments in the failed county pool but aren’t willing to support the tax that would provide for that repayment.

“At least if they [want] to make themselves whole, they should come out for Measure R,” he said.

There is another hurdle for the tax proponents. The public perception of a crisis has diminished in recent months, as has the sense that the county’s investment pool losses, which totaled $1.7 billion out of $7.4 billion, will hurt them.

The very success of county leaders in laying the groundwork for a rollover of almost $1 billion in debt coming due this summer, as well as the pending sale of recovery bonds to convert to cash some of the county IOUs given to schools and municipalities, is working against them.

“We are being penalized for doing the responsible job and taking the responsible steps to correct the situation,” said Gates. “People believe wrongly that we don’t need the additional revenue from the sales tax and out-of-county trash sales to complete the plan and pay back the debt.”

Two gauges of the public’s fear that the investment losses will significantly affect their lives have each dropped 6 percentage points since April. Currently, 28% think the losses will hurt the quality of education in their schools “a lot” and 22% feel it will detract “a lot” from the quality of life in Orange County.

The proponents are well into their campaign, having spent “more than $1 million,” said campaign coordinator Stu Mollrich. The various committees working for the measure’s passage have sent out close to 2 million pieces of mail. Much of that was low-key absentee ballot solicitations, containing arguments for the tax from Gates, Chief Executive Officer William J. Popejoy and others. More detailed and pointed mailers began showing up in residential mailboxes just as the poll was taken.

Key parts of the proponents’ message were echoed by respondents to the poll, including the two top reasons for voting Yes: that the tax would end “the bankruptcy quickly,” and that is the only way “to raise enough money.”

“You have a large undecided and it seems like a very fluid election to me,” Mollrich said.

The proponents will be doing more mailers, cable television, radio, phone banks, get-out-the-vote drives and public speaking engagements in the final two weeks. Mollrich promises that these will not include a any heart-rending and emotional appeals.

“People are upset now,” he said. “It doesn’t benefit us at all to get people angrier than they are. We have to ask people to put anger aside and look at this rationally and say, ‘This is the best solution that exists’--that it is the only solution that can raise the dollars needed to solve it, and the cost to each individual is small.”

Mail from the tax opponents, who have a war chest of perhaps $300,000, also began arriving just as the poll was being conducted. They, too, plan surveys and more mailers, debates, public speaking and cable television appearances, as well as a get-out-the-vote drive.

Mark Thompson, who is running the campaign for Citizens Against the Tax Increase, the lead anti-Measure R group, said his campaign material is designed to exploit the public’s outrage about the investment losses and taxes.

“It is my job to take the people who are upset and angry and to take that emotional response” a step further to the No campaign’s main message, he said, which is: “Why give our money to the very politicians and the system that failed us?”

“I am helping them articulate their feelings about it,” he said, adding that “it takes very little money to refine that emotion.”

Jim Righeimer, who is running the speakers bureau for Citizens Against the Tax Increase, cautioned against overconfidence on the anti-tax side because of the potential for a tidal flow of spending by the Measure R proponents.

“Any time when you start talking about money in the millions, that can be directed to getting folks to the polls, it can have a massive impact in a special election,” he said.

Nestande, the old hand at sales tax elections, wonders if the proponents can hurdle so many barriers. When Measure M passed in 1990, it was ahead 47% to 37% a month before the vote.

“What makes it very difficult for the Yes side is the numbers aren’t there now,” he said. “It is encouraging for them that people are moving to the Yes side. But it is discouraging that it is not significantly above the 50% threshold, and that’s where they would certainly want to be.”

“The important question is: How much money do they have to spend in the last few weeks,” he said. “With the [polling] numbers early on, passing it was a real long shot, and it remains a long shot.”

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Uphill Fight for Tax Measure

Measure R faces a tough battle because many voters believe that the quality of their lives have not been affected by investment fund losses. Forty-five percent oppose Measure R, 40% support it, and 15% are undecided. But among likely voters, the margin widens to 37% in favor and 50% opposed, with 13% undecided.

Where Voters Stand on Measure R

Change in Change in Percentage Percentage Points Since Points Since Don’t Yes April Poll No April Poll Know All voters 40% 4% 45% -12% 15% Republicans 38% 7% 48% -14% 14% Democrats 45% n/c* 38% -11% 17% 18-34 years 39% 4% 45% -6% 16% 35-54 years 45% 7% 41% -18% 14% 55 and older 36% 2% 48% -11% 16% Income under $50,000 39% 5% 43% -15% 18% Income $50,000+ 43% -1% 45% -3% 12%

Change in Percentage Points Since April Poll All voters 8% Republicans 7% Democrats 11% 18-34 years 2% 35-54 years 11% 55 and older 9% Income under $50,000 10% Income $50,000+ 4%

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Bankruptcy Impacts

Do you think the investment fund losses will hurt the quality of life in Orange County?

April June A lot 28% 22% Somewhat 48% 56% Not much 12% 12% Not at all 8% 6% Don’t know 4% 4%

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Do you think the investment fund losses will hurt the quality of education in your school district?

April June A lot 34% 28% Somewhat 42% 44% Not much 11% 12% Not at all 8% 10% Don’t know 5% 6%

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Election Interest

Most voters have received Measure R literature in the mail on the side of the Yes campaign. Half of the voters are very interested in the election and about one-third of them plan to cast absentee ballots.

Received yes Vote on R mail Absentee OC voters 32% 32% Likely voters** 46% 32% Republicans 38% 48% 18-34 years 21% 32% 35-54 years 34% 33% 55 and older 38% 31%

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Highly interested in the Measure R election: OC voters: 54% Vote yes: 49% Vote no: 60% Source: Times Orange County Poll

* No change

** Based on past voting, interest in the Measure R election and intentions to vote June 27.

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How This Poll Was Conducted

The Times Orange County Poll was conducted by Mark Baldassare and Associates. The random-sample telephone survey of 1,002 Orange County registered voters was conducted June 2-5 on weekday nights and weekend days. The margin of error for the total sample is plus or minus 3% at the 95% confidence level. That means it is 95% certain the results are within three percentage points of what they would be if every registered voter in the county were interviewed. For the subgroup of 397 likely voters, the margin of error is plus or minus 5%.