In Surprise, Gramm Ties Dole in Iowa Straw Poll : Politics: Texan shows unexpected strength against GOP front-runner. Buchanan is third in controversial early test.

In a surprisingly strong showing, Texas Sen. Phil Gramm finished in a dead heat with Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole, the front-runner in the Republican presidential race, in a straw poll Saturday night in Iowa.

The state has been regarded as part of Dole’s political base.

According to the Iowa Republican leaders who conducted the straw poll, Dole and Gramm each received 2,582 votes--24% of the 10,598 cast in a contest that, while criticized by some as of limited significance, served as an early test of candidate strength.

Conservative commentator Patrick J. Buchanan finished third with 18%. Going into the vote, he had been expected to battle for second with Gramm and former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander. Alexander finished fourth with 11% of the vote.

In the glow of his success, Gramm called his showing a “stunning upset” and, in a slap at Dole, a “rejection of deal-cutting in Washington, D.C.”

He added: “If we can beat Bob Dole in Iowa, we can beat him anywhere in America.”

The straw poll offered no tangible prize and will have no impact on the makeup of Iowa’s delegation to the 1996 GOP national convention in San Diego. And because the contenders were allowed to import supporters from other states--to cast a ballot, participants merely had to pay $25, regardless of whether they were registered to vote in Iowa or anywhere else--some questioned its reliability as a true political barometer for the crucial Iowa caucuses in February.

Nevertheless, because Dole and Gramm both mounted major efforts here, the results took on symbolic significance and underlined a general feeling among some party leaders that despite the Kansas senator’s lead in national polls, his candidacy is vulnerable.

“We’re going to continue to be the front-runner,” insisted Scott Reed, Dole’s campaign manager, a claim no one was yet ready to dispute. Trying to put the best face on matters, he added: “I would rather have [an upset] happen now than in [the caucuses].”

But as Dole himself pointed out in advance of the voting, which he had been heavily favored to win: “Despite the shortcomings in the poll, it still is an indication of who can organize and get their troops here as a dress rehearsal for what’s going to happen here next February.”

Some Republicans here attributed Gramm’s success to his willingness to spend heavily on direct mail, phone banks and buses to bring voters in from throughout Iowa and other states. But Dole also brought in voters from elsewhere, though his managers said they decided to hold down their budget in comparison to Gramm.

The results may also be a blow to Buchanan, who had hoped to establish himself as Dole’s prime challenger, and to Alexander, who made a significant effort here.

Late Saturday night, representatives of each of those campaigns sought to put a positive spin on the results.

Angela (Bay) Buchanan, Buchanan’s sister and campaign chairwoman, said: “Our goal was to have people recognize that [the campaign] is down to three people. When they start seeing [Buchanan] does play with the major leaguers, they’ll recognize that he can go all the way.”

Mike Murphy, Alexander’s chief strategist, said: “‘It’s still a wide open race with a lot of candidates who are relatively weak.”

One of those with a poor showing was California Gov. Pete Wilson, who finished eighth in the ten-man field with little more than 1% of the vote.

Among the other candidates, former State Department official Alan Keyes and Illinois industrialist Morry Taylor each got 8%. Indiana Sen. Richard G. Lugar received 4% and Rep. Robert K. Dornan of Garden Grove and Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter got less than 1%.

A political unknown, Taylor had loomed as a wild card in the race. He has been barnstorming Iowa at the head of a caravan of motor homes and had the potential to draw a surprising amount of support because of his financial resources and his image as a political outsider. He recently won a straw poll in Polk County, which includes Des Moines.

Last week, Specter said he had decided to mount no active campaign for support, protesting the lax rules for voting. Wilson’s campaign, meanwhile, decided not to make a major effort in the contest, given that the governor has not established a strong Iowa organization.

The straw poll was conducted in a cavernous auditorium normally used by the Iowa State University basketball Cyclones. For this occasion, the hall was festooned with political banners and posters.

Hours before each candidate was given one final 10-minute opportunity to address the gathering--with three additional minutes allowed for not-so-spontaneous demonstrations--their supporters gathered like warring battalions outdoors, under tents sheltering them from the blazing sun. There they nourished themselves on hot dogs, hamburgers, pizza and barbecued pork.

In their speeches, the candidates generally focused on the major themes that already have marked their candidacies.

Dole, who gained wide attention earlier this year when he attacked the entertainment industry as overly indulgent of violence and sex in the films, television shows and music it produces, reiterated that attack in his remarks.

Gramm, who is stressing his economic conservatism in his campaign, repeated his pledge to make balancing the federal budget his “No. 1 priority” if elected, adding that he would not seek another term if he failed to accomplish that.

Buchanan began his address by emphasizing his commitment to the anti-abortion movement. He also harshly attacked what he termed “the New World Order,” which he said was exemplified by the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Before speaking, Alexander took the unorthodox approach of bringing a singer on stage and accompanying her on the piano as she sang “God Bless America.”

He then offered himself as an outsider--one who lives “in Nashville, not Washington, D.C.”--and thus better understands “the realworld.”

The major contenders not only tried to do well in Saturday’s contest, but their staffs played hard at the expectations game preceding the vote, trying to set high goals for world.”

The major contenders not only tried to do well in Saturday’s contest, but their staffs played hard at the expectations game preceding the vote, trying to set high goals for their foes while lowering the standards for themselves.

Pointing out that Dole, in a similar Iowa straw poll last year that featured much the same field, had won with 26% of the vote, campaign manager Reed said: “Our goal is to better our 1994 mark.”

But Charles Black, Gramm’s senior strategist, had a different standard in mind.

“We think the goal should be to beat wherever you are in the public opinion polls. That means Dole should do better than 50%, which is where he is in the polls, while Gramm should do better than 11%, which is what his poll rating is.”

Actually, the latest poll in Iowa taken last week showed Dole with 34% of the vote and Gramm at 8%, followed by Buchanan (6%) and Alexander (4%).

One of the reasons for the attention lavished on the straw poll--and on Iowa in general--are past contests that Iowans claim had significant impact on presidential politics. They note that religious broadcaster Pat Robertson’s victory in a 1987 straw poll foreshadowed his strong showing in the 1988 caucuses, in which he finished second.

But a closer look suggests that the results of Iowa straw polls--and the Iowa caucuses themselves--have only limited impact on the presidential campaign.

In 1988, for instance, Iowa turned out to be the high watermark for Robertson’s candidacy, which floundered in primary contests elsewhere where he could not count on a strong base of conservative Christian voters to carry the day.

And Dole, after winning the ’88 caucuses, stumbled in the first-in-the-nation New Hampshire primary, where then-Vice President George Bush won. Bush went on to take the nomination.

In 1980, it was Bush who charged out of Iowa with what he called “big mo” after winning the caucuses.

But his momentum soon stalled when Ronald Reagan won the New Hampshire primary and went on to win the White House. Bush settled for being Reagan’s vice president.

In fact, the last man to win his party’s Iowa caucuses and then win the presidency was Democrat Jimmy Carter in the 1976 campaign.