Don’t Be Too Quick to Credit ‘3 Strikes’ : Cause of drop in crime statistics may lie elsewhere

Wanting an end to revolving-door justice that put hardened criminals back on the street, Californians embraced the “three strikes and you’re out” law when it took effect 18 months ago. “Three strikes” indeed has changed the rules; it has put many felons behind bars for 25 years to life. But the unfolding evidence on its costs and ripple effects paints a far more complex and troubling picture.

A report last month from the state legislative analyst’s office (LAO) shows that reported crime in California hit a 10-year low in 1994. The LAO noted declines in all six major crime categories--homicide, rape, robbery, assault, burglary and motor vehicle theft. Some Californians see this drop as evidence that the “three-strikes” law is working. That may well be part of the explanation, says the LAO. But, the analyst noted, because the decline began in 1992, two years before the “three-strikes” law was passed by the Legislature and subsequently endorsed by voters in an initiative, other factors may be equally influential; for instance, the aging of the baby boom population and continued underreporting of crime. Moreover, because the California pattern is consistent with those in states with less severe laws, the decline in reported crime may be the result of a national trend, the LAO said.

COURT LOG JAM: Whatever the cause, the drop in reported crime is good news. But that decline, if real, is gravely threatened by the harsh choices that “three strikes” is forcing on California’s law enforcement officials and judges.

Because a guilty plea now means a 25-year-to-life term upon the third conviction for virtually any felony, more defendants, as predicted, are choosing to take their chances before a jury. As a result, criminal trials have multiplied and lengthened.

Because criminal defendants have a statutory right to a speedy trial, their cases take precedence over pending civil matters, meaning civil trials in some Los Angeles County courts are regularly delayed and interrupted. Although the number of felony jury trials rose nearly 50% last year in Orange County, so far there has been no spillover to the civil courts. But Orange County judges worry about the increasing caseloads.

Throughout the region, judges and attorneys are concerned that courtrooms designed to accommodate civil litigants are not secure enough to handle criminal defendants. And they are concerned, as well, about the agitating effect of growing delays in such non-priority matters as domestic cases and business foreclosures. On Friday a man fatally shot his estranged wife in Los Angeles’ Downtown civil courthouse during a domestic-dispute conference.

JAILS OVERFLOWING: No less ominous is news that with county jails now crowded with felony defendants, misdemeanor suspects are being routinely released after arrest. The growing number of “third-strikes” defendants awaiting trial has filled jails to capacity. An LAO report released early this year found that the overwhelming majority of two- and three-strike defendants are charged with such nonviolent felonies as drug possession, writing bad checks or residential burglary. Meanwhile the misdemeanor offenders often released back to the streets include suspected drunk drivers.

This policy is frightening, to say the least. Repeat drunk drivers can kill as surely as a gang member carrying a loaded pistol and a grudge. Local law enforcement officials insist that they have no choice, that the broad scope of the “three-strikes” law has tied their hands and filled their jails. This may well be the case, and no one should be surprised if California’s “three strikes” law is, in important ways, making it tougher to get tough on crime.