Wilson, Clinton Are Tied in Orange County, Poll Finds

Orange County voters, traditionally among the most conservative and staunchly Republican in the state, support President Clinton as strongly as Gov. Pete Wilson for President in 1996, according to a countywide poll released Wednesday.

In addition to the 41%-41% tie with Clinton, the poll also shows Wilson trailing Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole (R-Kan.) by 35% to 15% in a hypothetical primary matchup.

Wilson’s tepid following in a county where voters chose him for governor by a 2-1 margin over Democrat Kathleen Brown last year may be due in part to the perception that the state government has failed to help as the county struggles to recover from bankruptcy, said Prof. Mark Baldassare of UC Irvine, who conducted the survey. But he called the results surprising nonetheless.

“Pete Wilson can’t beat Bill Clinton right now in Orange County,” Baldassare said. “Those findings came as a surprise to me. I thought: ‘Wait a minute, what is he doing in the race?’ ”

Wilson campaign officials downplayed the poll, saying it is not significant because the race is still so young.

Two years ago, “the early results showed Pete Wilson would have trouble beating Kathleen Brown,” said Wilson spokesman Dan Schnur.

The survey shows Clinton enjoying unusual support in politically hostile territory. When matched against Wilson head-to-head, Clinton could stitch together a coalition of independent and moderate Republican voters to join his solid backing from the county’s Democrats. One out of five Republicans in the survey indicated that they would back Clinton over Wilson as did roughly half the independents.

The random survey of 810 registered voters was conducted by telephone between Aug. 18-27, just before Wilson formally announced his candidacy on Aug. 28. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all voters. The sample of Republicans has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 points.

Although the poll showed limp backing for the Republican governor’s presidential bid, local voters still overwhelmingly favor a hallmark of Wilson’s campaign--the proposed anti-affirmative action ballot initiative.