More Apples--No Bargains

The harvests for each of California’s three leading varieties of apples will increase this year, in some cases significantly. You might think that would mean lower prices, but you’re probably wrong.

The reasons--involving everything from one day’s bad weather to international commodities markets--illustrate just how complex farm economics can be.

First, the good news: Prices probably won’t jump too much; they just won’t go down the way one might expect, given the size of this year’s haul.

What’s more, quality should be very good. Ironically, the cool, moist spring weather that did in plums, nectarines and peaches allowed California’s apples to reach greater levels of size and color.

“We’ve got good sizes,” says Kenton Kidd, president of the California Apple Commission. “That cool spring really helped us on size and color. It gave a chance for those apples to size up really well, and the cool weather means we’ll be getting a lot more red in the galas and fujis.”

Projections from the commission have gala apples up 32% to 50.4 million pounds, industry standby Granny Smiths up 7% to 189 million pounds and fujis up 4% to 96.6 million pounds.

That’s a lot of apples, but not compared to the Pacific Northwest harvest, even after a massive hailstorm July 9 stripped Washington State trees from Wenatchee to Brewster. Losses were projected at 168 million pounds of apples--or more than all of California’s fujis and galas combined.

This year’s projected Washington harvest--even though it should be almost 10% lower than last year’s record--will still be one of the state’s largest, roughly 3.5 billion pounds.

The other factor holding up prices is more arcane. Prices for apple juice concentrate--a major commodity--have skyrocketed in the past year. Last year’s season started with prices around $40 a ton, and this year’s opened at $105. Current quotes are running in the neighborhood of $150.

That means many apples of borderline quality that might make it into the market in another year will be sent straight to juice. That’s especially handy this year, as there was some hail damage to California apples, particularly to Granny Smiths.