NEWS ANALYSIS : Clinton Sees Windfall in His Gift-Giving to State

To Californians, fires, floods, earthquakes, riots and recession are personal or economic disasters; to President Clinton, they offer dramatic opportunities to impress the most populous state with his powers of purse and office.

As he amply demonstrated this week, an incumbent President can deliver folding money--and lots of it.

Indeed, Clinton’s promise Friday of $364 million in accelerated federal Medicaid reimbursement funds to rescue Los Angeles County’s near-bankrupt public health care system is just the latest example of his use of the White House to deliver federal largess to a state that is central to his reelection hopes.

It was also a chance for Clinton to make a stark visual statement to the voters of California.

As local television broadcast the event live, the President stood on the Tarmac at Santa Monica Airport on Friday morning with the five Los Angeles County supervisors, county health czar Burt Margolin and Mayor Richard Riordan--and without the noticeably absent Gov. Pete Wilson.

Wilson was in New Hampshire on Friday, trying to revive his faltering quest for the Republican presidential nomination. The White House was not shy about making political hay out of the President’s role in helping resolve the county health crisis while Wilson was a continent away, pursuing his bid to take Clinton’s job.

“Where is the governor today?” White House spokesman Mike McCurry asked facetiously, knowing full well where Wilson was.

“For two days we’ve been here solving problems in the state,” McCurry said. “It took the leadership of the President to make it happen. That might provide a contrast with the contribution of the governor.”

Wilson, interviewed while touring the downtown of Keene, N.H., scoffed at the suggestion that he was shirking his responsibilities. He called McCurry’s comments “a clumsy effort by a frightened White House to make [Clinton] look good at my expense.”

Focusing on one of his central campaign themes, Wilson added,the health care bailout notwithstanding, that the federal government is draining hundreds of millions of dollars from California by not properly enforcing immigration laws.

“Even if [the bailout money] were an outright gift, it is far less than what they impose on the county . . . for the costs of illegal immigrants.”

Clinton has now visited California 20 times since his 1992 election and virtually every visit has two overlapping purposes--to tap into the state’s large and generous Democratic base for campaign contributions and to spread around federal money to alleviate disasters or soften the blow of the closing of dozens of military bases.

The catalogue of Clinton’s California goodies is impressive for their size and variety: February, 1993, $500 million to help retrain laid-off defense industry workers; December, 1993, $200 million for housing assistance and defense conversion programs; January, 1994, $1 billion for Northridge earthquake relief, and January, 1995, $350 million for a new “economic empowerment zone” in Los Angeles.

The list also speaks to the state’s political importance for Clinton. With its 54 electoral votes--one-fifth of the 270 needed to win the White House--carrying California is crucial under any circumstances. But given Clinton’s current political troubles in Southern and border states, California has assumed “must win” status for him.

Political scientists say that there is no substantial evidence that delivering economic benefits to a state or congressional district directly affects voting patterns. But, said John Petrocik, professor of political science at UCLA, it can’t hurt.

“Some have found a correlation between New Deal expenditures on public works and how well Franklin Roosevelt did in certain states. He appeared to spend money in states where he was weakest and there was some evidence of improvement,” Petrocik said.

“It’s probably going to help Clinton, too, by giving people in California something good to say about him and remove some reasons to be unhappy,” he added.

Clinton and his top aides clearly believe that the gifts he has bestowed on California have been money well spent. Clinton reportedly ordered senior federal officials to work around the clock to draft the county rescue package in time for him to announce it before he left Los Angeles on Friday.

Senior aides were elated by the resulting accord. John Emerson, who ran Clinton’s California campaign in 1992 and works full time on state issues at the White House, pumped the air with his fist like a victorious quarterback after the President announced the deal.

Another top White House official said that it gave Clinton a welcome opportunity to talk about issues that he considers strengths--health care, education and federal-state partnerships--and avoid divisive issues that could cut into his support in California, particularly immigration and affirmative action.

Herbert Alexander, director of the Citizens Research Foundation at USC and an expert on money and politics, said Clinton obviously believes that he cannot win reelection without California and that his generosity with federal funds is designed to improve his prospects here.

Alexander noted that the county health care aid “puts the Clinton Administration in a favorable light” particularly in Southern California, where 60% of the state’s voters live.

In 1992, Clinton carried Los Angeles County by more than 700,000 votes over George Bush, more than enough to counteract Republican majorities elsewhere.

“That’s a big mass of potential voters and Democrats can exploit that,” Alexander said. “It’s certainly better to be in a position to be able to help than to say that because of the federal budget deficit we can’t do it.”

But one question that remains, Alexander added, is “how much of [the favorable political capital] rubs off a year from now?”

Times staff writer Marc Lacey contributed to this story from New Hampshire.

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Stream of Aid

President Clinton has made these pledges of federal assistance during his 20 visits to California:

Feb. 22, 1993: $500 million to help unemployed aerospace workers.

Aug.13, 1993: Unspecified sums to offset closing of five Bay area naval facilities.

Oct. 4, 1993: $237 million for high energy physics program at Stanford Univesity. Unspecified amounts for reconstruction of Cypress Freeway in Northern California.

Dec. 5, 1993: $46 million in federal housing grants; $155 million in defense conversion projects.

Jan.19, 1994: $1 billion in initial aid for Northridge quake, with more to come.

May 20, 1994: Announces selection of former Norton Air Force Base in San Bernardino to be site of a 4,000 employee Defense Finance and Accounting Services center.

Nov. 3, 1994: Announces $1.6 billion aircraft order from China for 40 McDonnell Douglas aircraft; unspecified additional sums to offset costs of illegal immigration.

Jan. 18, 1995: Unspecified sums in additional aid to complete cleanup of Northridge quake and for California floods; $350 million in aid to Los Angeles for “economic initiative empowerment zone.”

Sept. 22, 1995: $364 million to rescue Los Angeles County health care system.