GOP Effort to Recall Allen Could Backfire : Politics: Four Republicans on the ballot could split the vote and give the seat to a Democrat.

Republican Party officials leading the recall election against Assemblywoman Doris Allen are concerned that their effort to seize Allen’s seat could fail even if she is ousted--because a large field of GOP candidates may split the vote and allow a Democrat to steal victory.

Four well-known or well-financed Republicans are competing to replace Allen, who faces a Nov. 28 recall election and a simultaneous contest to pick a potential successor in her 67th Assembly district. The effort to oust her is backed by the state and county Republican parties. They see a win as essential to controlling the Assembly.

While Republican chieftains are confident they can defeat Allen in the special election, they are less sanguine about the outcome of the replacement balloting.

Declaring that there is “growing concern among party leaders,” Orange County Republican Party Chairman Tom Fuentes said the four Republican candidates in the next week or so must “take a very hard look at the reality of the threat” from Democrat Linda Moulton-Patterson, 52, former mayor of Huntington Beach.

Other Republican leaders--from Senate Minority Leader Rob Hurtt (R-Garden Grove) to strategist and fund-raiser Buck Johns--have expressed similar but less dire warnings, in part because Moulton-Patterson has had limited success at drumming up the money needed to mount a full-fledged challenge.

GOP leaders nevertheless have asked two of the apparently weaker Republican candidates to abandon the race. Both have refused.

Hurtt said the GOP’s original strategy called for having no more than three Republicans in the race, facing three Democrats.

In fact, only one other Democrat is in the race, conservative Laurie Campbell, who has lived in the county less than a year and is a political unknown. Campbell, who acknowledged in an interview that she is running as a spoiler, has refused a request from her party to withdraw her candidacy.

Orange County Republican legislators are eager to punish and replace Allen, who in June was elected Assembly Speaker with the support of the lower house’s Democrats. She stepped down as Speaker in September, but joined with Democrats in replacing herself with an ally, Assemblyman Brian Setencich (R-Fresno). That move again frustrated the GOP, which wants to install as Speaker its choice, Assembly Republican leader Curt Pringle (R-Garden Grove).

Allen’s defeat is not certain, however.

With the election six weeks away, she has promised to mount an aggressive battle and has launched a mail and absentee ballot attack. She is receiving support and pledges from some of her traditional backers, according to the campaign. The California Teachers Assn. has contributed $55,000 and may donate more money, along with volunteers, a CTA official said.

But the campaign hasn’t received “any huge infusion of money,” said campaign co-Chairman Gil Ferguson.

Dumping Allen is a priority for the Republican leadership because it would move the GOP Assembly caucus closer to control of the 80-member Assembly.

The Assembly now has 41 Republicans and 39 Democrats. But two members of the GOP are Allen and Setencich, who do not support Pringle’s bid for the top post. Republicans say they would finally be able to elect their choice as Speaker--40 to 39--if they depose Allen and Assemblyman Willie Brown wins the San Francisco mayoral race this year, forcing his departure from the Legislature.

Democrats also face a dilemma in the contest, and have yet to make a financial commitment. They are torn between loyalty to Allen, who supported Democrats during her short tenure as Speaker, and the potential of a Moulton-Patterson upset.

Bill Cavala, a key staffer for the Democratic Assembly caucus, said the group’s first priority would be to aid Allen. “Once she has a campaign that is out there and hopefully paid for, then I think that everyone would take a hard look” at supporting Moulton-Patterson, who “has a chance to win,” Cavala said.

Whoever wins Nov. 28 would go to work in Sacramento in January and serve only the rest of Allen’s term, meaning they would face reelection in November, 1996.

Would it be worth a substantial investment by Democrats to win a seat in a heavily Republican district that would almost certainly elect a GOP representative next year?

“Ten months is a long time these days,” said Cavala.

Political consultants believe Moulton-Patterson must raise $150,000 to $200,000 to have a shot at stealing the election. Hurtt believes a $600,000 campaign budget would cause Republicans “real trouble.”

Moulton-Patterson can “squeak through” if she raises the $150,000, said consultant Harvey Englander. “She has a good following among Democrats and enough residual positives in Huntington Beach among pro-environmental Republicans that it could put the package together for her.”

All the Republican candidates champion lower taxes, less government regulation of business, more local control and fiscal conservatism. The two most commonly talked about as top contenders by Republican leaders are Scott Baugh, a protege of U.S. Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Huntington Beach), and Haydee Tillotson, who ran unsuccessfully for county supervisor in 1994.

Neither has held elected office before, but both have raised substantial funds for the contest, according to their campaigns. Both favor Allen’s recall.

The other two GOP challengers are elected officials: Shirley Carey, who is starting her sixth year as a trustee on the Huntington Beach City School District, and Don MacAllister, who served 12 years on the Huntington Beach City Council--including two terms as mayor--and four years as a Huntington Beach Union High School trustee.

Carey takes no position on the recall, while MacAllister opposes it.

Baugh, 33, is a lawyer for Union Pacific Railroad, whom Rohrabacher sought out for the race after his first choice decided not to run. He and Tillotson describe themselves as the true conservatives in the race.

Tillotson, 56, who owns a real estate development and management company, spent $400,000 of her own money in her failed supervisorial campaign. She has been active in community and charity groups for 25 years.

Carey, 56, is a nurse and director of staff development at Huntington Beach Hospital Medical Center. She describes herself as a “reasonably conservative mainstream Republican” who will champion education and health care issues.

MacAllister, 62, who owns a security and electronics firm, said he plans to run a low-key campaign, spending less than $25,000 and working without a political consultant. He believes the Assembly post should become a part-time position.

On the Democratic side, Campbell, 33, is a legal secretary who has very limited resources and no plans to open a campaign office. She said she got into the race to provide Democrats with a conservative alternative.

Moulton-Patterson, 52, an elementary school teacher, was a trustee of the Huntington Beach Union School Board for seven years and served on the Huntington Beach City Council for four years.

She hopes to raise at least $50,000, and has yet to hire a political consultant.

A key issue will be which candidate can turn out supporters in the unusual, six-way, winner-take-all contest. The election will be held the Tuesday after Thanksgiving and absentee voters are expected to make up a substantial portion of the vote. Some 8,700 have been requested so far in a district of 204,000 registered voters, where Republicans make up half the electorate and Democrats one-third.

Republican strategists say early polling and their instincts tell them that the vast majority of those voting in the special election will be partisan Republicans who want to recall Allen. But if Moulton-Patterson can raise the money, or if Democrats vote in proportion to their registration, the seeds for an upset may be there.

To the Democrats, it is a delight to contemplate.

“Just imagine what delicious mischief if the Democrats finish this year with more seats than they started,” said Larry Levine, a consultant to that party’s campaign committee. “The reality is, we are still talking about Orange County. . . . It is improbable.”