Sizing Up the Best Bet in GOP Field

There is a growing sense among Establishment Republicans in California that what they see is what they’re going to get. The GOP presidential field probably is set. This is all there is. Live with it.

For many of these Republicans--if not most--that means living with Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole of Kansas.

Sure, Colin Powell may get in the contest--and he may not. If he does, that will be exciting and perhaps do wonders for race relations in America. But the retired general is untested in political combat. And his centrist views--regardless of his character and leadership qualities--may be too “liberal” for Republican primary voters.

Speaker Newt Gingrich keeps hinting he may jump in. But that is viewed as doubtful. He’s riding too high to risk it all on a nasty, lousy-odds presidential race. The Speaker’s public ruminating probably is his way of tugging Dole to the right.

It’s all very iffy. What is certain is that California’s governor has crawled to the sidelines. Ten contestants remain, few of them major players. Dole still is running far ahead of the pack. He leads his nearest rival, Sen. Phil Gramm of Texas, by distances ranging from 2-to-1 to 5-to-1, depending on the poll and the state.

Dole has been slipping in matchups with President Clinton and is being pounded by pundits--mostly for alleged lack of inspiration, vision and conviction. But no Republican rival has gained much ground on the GOP front-runner.

So if you’re an uncommitted Republican pol in California--now freed from any twinge of obligation to the governor--it’s time to pick a horse if you want to dabble in the race. You look for a probable winner. And the best bet is Dole.

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“Looking at this field, Sen. Dole stands head and shoulders over the other candidates and represents our best chance of regaining the presidency,” says Steven A. Merksamer, a veteran California politico who this week will join the front-runner as a senior adviser.

Merksamer is a Sacramento attorney who was chief of staff to former Gov. George Deukmejian and chairman of George Bush’s 1988 California steering committee. His first preference for President was former housing secretary Jack Kemp, but Kemp didn’t run. Now, besides advising on strategy, Merksamer’s role will be to recruit Kemp anti-tax supply-siders for Dole.

Deukmejian endorsed Dole two weeks ago. So did Atty. Gen. Dan Lungren, who had planned to back the senator last winter, but unhappily held off when Wilson leaped into the race.

“Dole’s the best chance we’ve got to beat Clinton,” says Lungren, who wants to run for governor in 1998.

Until now, Gramm has boasted the most endorsements of California politicians. But with Wilson kaput, Dole is finding good pickings among Establishment Republicans who either had halfheartedly supported the governor or remained tactfully neutral. Three former state party chairmen--Bob Naylor, Frank Visco and Tirso del Junco--last week endorsed Dole. More state elected officials reportedly are lining up to back the front-runner.

Tweaking Gramm, Dole’s strategists orchestrated an endorsement by Assemblyman Charles S. Poochigian of Fresno to coincide with a Gramm campaign stop in Fresno this weekend.

It’s all fun and games, “insider baseball,” probably taken far too seriously by politicians and pundits. But the little one-upmanships do tend to impress the political operatives and donor/investors. Being backed by respected party figures bestows credibility on a candidate and opens checkbooks.

“Party regulars just closed their checkbooks on Pete Wilson,” notes one such party regular, who stiffed the governor and doesn’t want to be identified for fear of retaliation.

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While Californians try to pick a winner, Dole’s strategy is to vacuum up all the support he can to assure that some rival doesn’t get it--particularly Powell. “We’re preparing for Powell to run,” says William B. Lacy, a top Dole strategist. “We don’t know whether he will, but we’re getting ourselves into that mind-set.”

The message to GOP voters would be simple: Dole’s conservative; Powell’s liberal.

If Powell doesn’t run--and neither does Gingrich--it’s very possible Dole could wrap up the GOP nomination before the California primary on March 26. But “if Powell gets in,” notes Merksamer, “it’ll be a helluva race.”

Says GOP consultant Sal Russo, who is neutral: “The flash of a Colin Powell candidacy could just overwhelm Dole. But the problem with inexperienced candidates is that flash can quickly evaporate with poor decisions.

“Now anybody can be for Dole. It’s the safe choice.”

It may not be a bandwagon, but it’s the best buggy ride around.