BASEBALL / ROSS NEWHAN : All the Problems Still Need Solving

As restorative as postseason play seemed, baseball now gets back to business with prospects of another bleak winter.

Within the next week or two, owners are expected to make their first labor proposal in 10 months, but there is no hint of an agreement, no assurance that the 1996 season won’t be threatened by the continuing stalemate.

“There is no immediate reason to be optimistic, but I think there’s a reasonable chance for a settlement this winter because of the need for one,” said Tom Reich, one of several veteran agents who have tried to broker a settlement by lobbying both sides.

The need, of course, has been there since the owners voted in December of 1992 to open collective bargaining a year before the last agreement expired and then made no attempt at negotiation during that year.

Randy Levine, former head of labor relations for New York City, was recently hired as the owners’ fifth lead negotiator since that initial vote, but there are indications of what Reich called “a wider gulf than ever” between the big- and small-revenue clubs over their own revenue-sharing formula and among all owners regarding the general labor direction.

In the meantime, while baseball . . .

--Closes in on a new television deal that will raise national revenue;

--Basks in the improved ratings and critical response to exciting and expanded playoffs that reminded people of what’s good about the game;

--Points to governmental support for new stadiums in Seattle, Detroit and Milwaukee as indication of baseball’s economic impact on an area;

. . . there is still no commissioner, or leadership in a marketing division that has seen licensing revenue fall off 25% in two years, and there is no partnership between players and owners to help rebuild the fan base.

General Manager John Schuerholz of the Atlanta Braves said during the World Series that the “true fan” is back and the “fringe fan” has started back, but 1995 attendance was down 20% a game, and the absence of a bargaining agreement--which means another possible interruption--continues to chill fan and sponsor investment and cloud salary outlook for clubs and players.

The federal court injunction that ended the players’ strike in March continues to bind clubs to operate under rules of the expired agreement. Players eligible for free agency will be filing over the next 15 days. Clubs have the next four days to either release players with free agent repeater rights or offer them arbitration.

The average salary dipped slightly to $1.06 million in ‘95, only the second drop since free agency started in 1976. Dozens of players were not offered contracts, affecting supply and demand. Many players had to sign for significantly reduced salaries and will face the same hit this winter. Some owners are determined to make the players bleed under the current system, hoping to force a compromise attitude on a bargaining settlement down the line.

Said agent Reich, “Pitchers are still in demand and will do well. The star players will do well. But there’s going to be the same type mentality on the part of the clubs [as last spring] and there will be even more players left without contracts.

“A lot of mid-level players will be scuffling for jobs and money. Teams with a lot of holes to fill are going to find bargains and can make up a lot of ground by being aggressive.”

The signing freezes of last winter and spring left dozens of players unsigned on the eve of the season and the free-agent camp at Homestead, Fla., a supermarket of unsigned players.

“There will be more players in the pool this year, but there’s no freeze, so signing activity should begin immediately,” Reich said. “There might be a Homestead camp again, but I don’t think it will be anything like [last] March.”

A list of quality players eligible for free agency will test discipline among owners. Money is still available.

The San Diego Padres recently retained center fielder Steve Finley for two years at $5.9 million and are completing a two-year deal with third baseman Ken Caminiti at between $6 million and $6.6 million. Among players eligible for unrestricted free agency:

Pitchers--David Cone, Ramon Martinez, Jack McDowell, Chuck Finley, Jim Abbott, Jaime Navarro, Erik Hanson, Ken Hill and Todd Stottlemyre.

Closers--Randy Myers and Tom Henke.

First basemen--Fred McGriff, Mark Grace, Eddie Murray and Don Mattingly.

Second basemen--Roberto Alomar and Craig Biggio.

Third basemen--Gary Gaetti, Charlie Hayes and Wade Boggs.

Catcher--Mike Stanley.

Outfielders--Dante Bichette, Ron Gant and Tony Phillips.

Designated hitters--Jose Canseco and Paul Molitor.

If the work rules change through a labor settlement and the eligibility requirement for free agency is reduced, or players receive service time for the period they were on strike, that list would be significantly expanded, but it is doubtful that a settlement can be forged quickly enough to change work rules for 1996.

Despite continuing disagreement on how much revenue they should share among themselves, the owners are still looking for a major drag on salaries--a cap or a high payroll tax that acts as a cap.

The players’ union remains agreeable to a lower tax and creation of a joint growth fund to which they would contribute. The players would allow owners to use the fund in some way to temporarily ease problems of the small-revenue clubs, but while new in that aspect, it does not provide the salary drag the owners are seeking.

“We’re still hopeful of finding a vehicle that will lead to constructive discussion,” Donald Fehr, the union’s executive director, said.

Fehr said talks between lawyers for the sides have been “cordial enough” but generally unproductive. And although he continues to hear that the owners are planning to make a proposal, “that’s something I haven’t heard from them yet.”

Acting Commissioner Bud Selig wouldn’t be specific but said the level of activity will accelerate. He said baseball rebounded significantly from the early season malaise but added, “I don’t want to be Pollyannaish. We continue to need an agreement more than anything.”

Suspicion lingers, however. The union can’t shake the feeling that the owners still want to create an impasse that will withstand legal review and implement their own work rules.

Reich said it’s time to bury suspicion.

“Owners and players have to accept renewed talks on a no-fault basis and with recognition that neither side will capitulate,” he said.

“The celebration of Cal Ripken’s streak and the great baseball of the postseason demonstrates that with all the acrimony and blunder, it’s a sport that’s hard to kill.”

He paused, then added, “Peace is essential. Another nuclear winter could be fatal.”