Buchanan, Gramm Vie for GOP Group’s Backing : Politics: Presidential candidates seek endorsement of party’s most dedicated conservative activists at convention.

California’s most dedicated conservative Republican activists gathered Friday in Oakland to decide which GOP presidential candidate best meets their rigid test of commitment to conservative causes.

About 500 delegates were expected for the fall endorsement convention of the California Republican Assembly, the most venerable of the state’s volunteer political groups.

If there was to be an endorsement--which takes a two-thirds vote of the delegates--insiders predicted a battle between Washington columnist Patrick J. Buchanan and Texas Sen. Phil Gramm. Over the years, Buchanan has been the CRA’s darling. He will address the group in the convention’s premier time slot, tonight’s banquet.

Gramm did not plan to attend, which was read as a sign that his camp had little hope of winning the CRA’s blessing. Gramm sent his national campaign chairman, Arizona Sen. John McCain, to speak on his behalf Friday evening.

“If there’s going to be an endorsement, we’re going for it,” said Lorelei Kinder, a California Gramm campaign official.

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However, insiders said the Gramm strategy appeared to be that if Gramm could not win the endorsement, the next best thing was to prevent Buchanan from claiming the prize--to keep the California Republican Assembly technically neutral in the March 26 California presidential primary election.

In 1992, the CRA refused to endorse then-President George Bush for reelection, largely because he broke his pledge of no new taxes. The CRA also has warred with Republican Gov. Pete Wilson on taxes, abortion, gay rights and other issues critical to the conservatives.

The delegates are scheduled to vote on the endorsement question at the final general session Sunday, said CRA President Jon Fleischman of Orange County.

A spokesman for Buchanan, a former White House aide to Presidents Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan, seemed intent on lowering expectations. Deputy Press Secretary Kevin Forbes said, “We’re hoping to do well. You never know. The other guys are working it hard. We’ll do our best.”

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Another favorite of the conservative group is Alan Keyes, the radio talk show host and former Reagan Administration diplomat who became the first African American to announce his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination.

Even Keyes says he does not expect to win the GOP bid in San Diego next summer, but another potential Gramm strategy was to unite behind Keyes as an alternate way of blocking a Buchanan endorsement.

The campaign of front-running Sen. Bob Dole of Kansas was making a token appearance, with a speech by Rep. Randy (Duke) Cunningham of San Diego on Sunday morning. Dole will be in Florida, where a key GOP presidential straw poll will be held next week.

Brian Lungren, Dole’s California manager, said, “The CRA endorsement would be nice to have, but in a long campaign like this one you have to pick and choose where to put your resources.”

In fact, Dole would have no chance of winning the CRA endorsement, CRA sources said. He is viewed too much as a Washington insider, compromiser and supporter of big government and moderate issues, they said.

One CRA official said it is important for the group to formally endorse one of the acceptable conservative candidates before the weekend is over. If there is no endorsement, this source said, “Dole becomes the winner.”

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Beyond the realm of inside politics, the key question was whether it mattered what the California Republican Assembly does.

Statewide, the organization represents only about 4,500 members of local Republican clubs compared to a total GOP voter registration of 5.5 million.

But an endorsement is important, GOP sources said, because these are the activist conservative trench troops who invest time, energy and money--not just rhetoric--in their political cause. The CRA endorsement lends credibility to a candidate’s loyalty among conservatives.

Ken Khachigian, a longtime GOP campaign consultant who is not aligned with any of the candidates, said, “It’s very symbolic. It says something.”

The CRA was founded in the 1930s to promote moderate Republicans who were challenging the entrenched GOP conservatives at the time. Over the years, it became more conservative, to the point that it was scorned as a fringe group on the far right. During the 1980s, the CRA was considered essentially irrelevant within the broad scheme of California politics, except for its tendency to hurt GOP electoral prospects by attacking potentially winnable GOP moderates in Republican primary battles.

That has changed in the 1990s, as the party has become more conservative and as the issues of taxes, big government, abortion, gay rights and school prayer have worked their way back into the political discourse.

CRA activists have wielded increasing influence in the formal structure of the California Republican Party. Mike Schroeder, a former CRA president, is scheduled to become state Republican chairman next year.

Buchanan got a boost going into this weekend’s meeting when state Sen. Richard Mountjoy of Arcadia withdrew his endorsement of Gramm and was appointed Buchanan’s state chairman in California.

In an interview, Mountjoy complained that Gramm is “just still part of the Beltway game.”

“I think Buchanan is the guy that across the board really fits where CRA is. He’s running on the issues that people really believe in,” Mountjoy said.

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Poll Watch

Buchanan on the Move in N.H.?

In the first poll of New Hampshire Republicans since Colin Powell announced that he would not be a presidential candidate, support for Sen. Bob Dole has dropped while political commentator Patrick J. Buchanan has seemingly picked up steam. Magazine publisher Steve Forbes, who has spent heavily on television advertising in New Hampshire, has also seen his support rise.

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The Gop Field Now 10/12-16 Bob Dole 27% 32% Patrick J. Buchanan 17% 9% Malcolm S. (Steve) Forbers Jr. 7% 2% Lamar Alexander 6% 7% Richard G. Lugar 6% 6% Phil Gramm 3% 4%

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ANALYSIS: The poll is good news for Buchanan, who has been trying to establish himself as the conservative alternative to Dole, and it underscores the continued weakness of Sen. Phil Gramm of Texas in the state that holds the first primary. Two cautionary notes: First, the poll’s margin of error--plus or minus 5 percentage points--is relatively large. Dole’s support could be as high as 32% and Buchanan as low as 12%, for example. Second, the poll was taken among people who indicated that they were “likely voters” in the primary. Determining who is really a likely voter is difficult and can often introduce additional errors to polls.

Source: The New hampshire Poll.