SECOND OPINIONS : Sybert Doesn’t Have the West Valley All Sewn Up : The persistent Republican gave Beilenson a run for his money in the 24th District. But the tide of discontent that deluged the Democrats in ’94 has turned the other way.

The race to watch in the San Fernando Valley in 1996 is the one to replace retiring Democratic Rep. Anthony C. Beilenson. At first glance, it appears that attorney Richard Sybert, the Republican who almost knocked off Beilenson in the Sherman Oaks-to-Thousand Oaks district--he lost by 3,536 votes, a little more than 1% of votes cast--is in the driver’s seat. However, the issues that pulled the Republican so close in 1994 may turn into liabilities in 1996.

Sybert, a former Pete Wilson aide who moved to the 24th Congressional District from Sacramento, was the beneficiary of President Clinton’s low popularity and of the anti-incumbent tide, led by Newt Gingrich, that swept the GOP into power in Congress. Things are different now, with Clinton enjoying the highest approval ratings of his presidency and Gingrich suffering the lowest of any Republican since Richard Nixon during the depths of Watergate.

While there is still a whole year to go, it appears today that for Sybert, missing the GOP wave last time could mean an uphill climb this time.

The Democrats aren’t without their hurdles. First, they have to nominate a strong challenger to Sybert, who has been running hard since his defeat last year. Almost any Democratic candidate will have a lot of ground to make up to match Sybert’s head start in fund raising and ability to call on his family’s wealth. Thus, the ideal candidate for the seat is politically moderate, a non-politician, a successful businessperson who could make a substantial commitment of personal funds to the race. Ordinarily, this is a tall order in a Democratic district, but not so here, where many residents are affluent.

Of the known suspects considering the race, State Board of Equalization member Brad Sherman boasts that he has $500,000 in the bank. Former Rep. Mel Levine, no slouch at fund raising and personal wealth himself, has all but ruled out a run. Former judge Dana Henry is thinking about it. Van Nuys native Glen Rosselli, a top deputy to U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, matches up well against Sybert in the general election in November. He is said to be all but in.

Two candidates who would have been formidable because of their no-nonsense stands on crime and their record of serving San Fernando Valley interests, Assemblyman Richard Katz of Sylmar and City Councilwoman Laura Chick, have said that, for now, they aren’t going to run.

No matter who Sybert draws, they’ll be tough because, as of today, the issues favor Democrats in this district. It just underscores that in politics, timing is everything. In 1994, Clinton’s popularity was at an all-time low and Sybert’s former boss, Wilson, was riding high. Now, with Gingrich and the GOP-controlled Congress giving the President a slow moving target, Clinton is back. Because of his attacks on Medicare and the elderly, come next November, Gingrich will be lucky to even have the opportunity to be snubbed on Air Force One.

And after a disastrous run at the presidency, Sybert’s former boss and cheerleader is a liability, not an asset. The governor is laying low and trying to outlive the revelation that the man who wants to seal the border hired (or, as he tried to explain away, his wife hired) an undocumented immigrant as an employee.

Wilson is serious baggage. Republicans don’t like him. Don’t look for Sybert to stress this relationship in his campaign.

Crime, illegal immigration and the fight over breaking up the L.A. Unified School District will continue to be hot-button issues. Beilenson was able to either take these issues away from Sybert or at least play him to a draw. While Sybert has been working hard as a candidate, raising money and shoring up his base of support, there are few substantive avenues, like those available to Chick or Katz, for him to create a record on crime. And whomever the Democrats choose to be their nominee, he or she will have to be sensitive to Valley voters’ concerns on immigration and schools. At best, it’s still a draw for the Republicans.

Finally, while the district is a tossup in terms of registered Republicans and Democrats, the voters are highly educated and fairly affluent. They are very independent and will scrutinize the candidates and their positions. The environmentalist Republicans in the hills and in Ventura County tend to be relatively independent and will look past party affiliation and hard at the environmental credentials of both candidates.

Further, there is a significant Jewish population that may ignore party ties to send a representative to Congress who will support foreign aid, Israel and the Middle East peace process. In the past, Republicans and independents who cared most about these issues voted for the Democrat.

And like last time, pro-choice women will have a hard time with Sybert’s position on abortion, which he calls “social libertarian.” What I think this means is that government should avoid the issue at all times, especially when funding abortions for poor women and always during an election. Trying to stay out of the GOP right wing’s way, Sybert loses the pro-choice Republican voters he needs to overtake the Democratic edge in this district.

I predicted a Beilenson win last time. Not because of partisanship, but because I was aware of the strong work he did in the district and how he took the immigration issue out of the debate by supporting a constitutional amendment denying citizenship to children of illegal immigrants. I also couldn’t see where Sybert was going to get the votes to pull off the upset. This time, the forces that got him close won’t be there.

Of course, never say never. Remember, Tom Hayden might just jump into the race.