County’s Commercial Real Estate Market Strong and Getting Stronger : Business: Vacancy rate is declining and rents are rising, putting pressure on tenants, says Grubb & Ellis Co. Boom in retail construction is forecast.

Fewer vacancies and higher rents marked Ventura County’s commercial real estate market in 1995, and more of the same--plus a boom in retail construction--is expected in the new year, real estate analysts said Wednesday.

Although the market stalled for a few months while the fate of the Point Mugu naval base hung in the balance, the office, shopping and industrial sectors overall showed signs of growth, said officials with Grubb & Ellis Co. in the company’s latest analysis of property trends.

The rosiest forecast was painted for the retail sector. More than 500,000 square feet of retail space is now under construction in Ventura County, and three times that amount is expected to break ground in 1996.

Major retailers recognize that Ventura County residents will shop in high-end stores and those companies are moving to the area, said retail broker Brian Coleman. Additionally, discount stores are doing well here, Coleman said.

“Right now in retail, it’s like all the stars are lined up for developing,” he said.

The factory outlet centers in Oxnard and Camarillo are drawing shoppers from the San Fernando Valley and Santa Barbara, and both centers plan to expand, analysts said.

Centers planning to break ground in 1996 include an upscale Price-Costco center in Westlake Village, a mall anchored by Barnes & Noble bookstore in Thousand Oaks, and a center anchored by Target in Camarillo.

Regional malls, such as the Janss Marketplace in Thousand Oaks, are trying to woo lost customers back by adding movie theaters and other attractions to their collection of stores.

“Retailing is becoming more of an entertainment-type business,” Coleman said.

Office space, which consistently saw vacancy rates of 20% or greater from 1990 to early 1994, is steadily filling up, the analysts said.

Businesses that need more than 5,000 square feet are finding few choices, and incentives such as months of free rent--once abundant in Ventura County--are now virtually nonexistent.

“Now if you’re a tenant in the marketplace, the tables have turned a little bit,” said James D. Gloyd, senior vice president with Grubb & Ellis.

The vacancy rate for county industrial real estate has dropped to 7.1%, close to what is considered full occupancy.

“Depending on what a company wants, there may be 10 choices, there may be one choice or there may be no choices,” said Eric Voulgaris, an industrial property broker with Grubb & Ellis.

The low vacancy rate is spurring some build-to-suit deals, in which a company that cannot find a building to satisfy its needs makes arrangements with a property owner to build one.