THE STATE : The GOP Finally Gains Control of Assembly but at What Cost

The Legislature returned to Sacramento last week, and members of the Assembly came out fighting--with each other. As players chasing a loose football, Republicans and Democrats scrambled for control of the house.

After a year of botched attempts to wrest organizational control from a more-seasoned Democratic minority, the Assembly GOP caucus finally managed to oust moderate Republican Brian Setencich from the speakership and to eviscerate the clout of the Democrats who put him in charge of the lower house.

Although Democrats derided the action as a “power grab,” Republicans cast their triumph as the fulfillment of the mandate of 1994, when voters gave them a slight numerical majority in the Assembly. “What it should mean,” Gov. Pete Wilson said, “is that people who voted for a Republican majority in 1994 will now see it translate” into movement toward GOP policy goals, like tort reform and deregulation.

Should mean? In other words, winning may not be all sunshine and roses for the Republicans. They’ve got the ball; now they have to run with it.

Exactly one year to the day when Newt Gingrich was sworn in as speaker of the House in Washington, Orange County Republican Curt Pringle, already labeled “Newt Lite” by Democrats, was elected Assembly speaker. His ascension suggests that lower-house Republicans are going to take “the Gingrich route”--moving a hard-conservative legislative agenda by using strict party discipline as a prod. Will they succeed?

On some issues, the GOP will be able to open up holes in the Democratic defensive line in the Assembly. But it still takes 54 votes to pass a budget. And the state Senate is under Democratic control.

Senate President Pro Tem Bill Lockyer has telegraphed his willingness to do some horse-trading. But any hint of conciliation probably won’t satisfy conservative Republican ideologues. In this election year, Pringle and his loyalists will face the same kind of heat from GOP party activists that Gingrich and his followers are feeling to achieve radical reforms.

There is some sentiment among Assembly Democrats to give the GOP majority its conservative agenda--or at least direct greater media and public attention to it. Democrats hope for a California replay of national polls that have detected eroding public support for the GOP’s “contract with America” as its details emerged. Republican Assembly candidates in highly competitive districts, including eight GOP freshmen who either beat Democratic incumbents or succeeded a Democrat in an open seat, could be vulnerable to voter backlash.

GOP candidates who distance themselves from a hard-right legislative agenda could improve their general election prospects but risk angering their party base and alienating Republican contributors. Moreover, by stripping Democratic Assembly members of their tools of governance--power and resources--the Republicans have freed up an angry and disgruntled group of legislators to spend full time on politics.

Lockyer has already had some success at revving up party activists and priming contributors by positioning the Senate as the last barrier between GOP Huns and the rape and pillage of the Democratic agenda. The bottom line is that Pringle, despite his consolidation of clout in the Assembly, doesn’t have Gingrich’s power. He faces a Democratic-controlled Senate and his majority in the Assembly is much narrower than the Republican advantage in the House.

Pringle will learn, as Gingrich is learning, that when votes are cast on policy issues, or on cutting programs dear to individual lawmakers’ hearts, it’s not so easy for a legislative leader to keep his troops in lock step.

The long-delayed realization of the GOP game plan also indicates that Wilson is still “relevant.” Traditionally, most governors steer clear of speakership politics; Wilson largely did that last year. But last week, he was a player. According to one aide, he “called a number of legislators” to pitch caucus unity. A GOP staffer cited Wilson’s phone calls to Assemblyman Trice Harvey as a key to shaking the Bakersfield Republican loose from his announced support for Setencich.

But the faces of Californians peering over the railings of the Assembly’s public gallery to watch the debate over rules and power allocation below told another story. What they witnessed were blood fights about which only denizens of the Capitol truly care. They heard nasty recriminations, harsh rhetoric and nit-picking over poorly drawn rules and confusing procedures. It was no doubt hard for them to believe that the legislative mayhem below masked purposeful action: enforcing party discipline and seizing organizational control are prerequisites to moving an ideological agenda.

Democrats know that, on the policy side, they’ve got the numbers to block the GOP’s rightward shift. Theirs was a battle to protect the staff and resources necessary to fight political wars and regain control of the Assembly.

Assembly members brave enough to glance at the gallery and make eye contact with the people who had come to see their elected representatives in action saw a sea of exasperated, bewildered, bored and disgusted faces. When any team starts fumbling, stumbling and losing, fans lose interest, attendance drops. Witness the former Los Angeles Rams.

Things could change but, right now, if the Legislature picked up and followed the Los Angeles Rams to St. Louis, you probably wouldn’t see many Californians angrily protest that move, either.