As Term Limits Take Hold, Power Shifts From Bay Area

The delayed shock of term limits is hitting the California Legislature with full impact this year, banishing from Sacramento by the end of 1996 the leadership that has dominated the Capitol for 30 years and dramatically shifting power away from the San Francisco Bay Area.

Gone is the flamboyant and wily Willie Brown, the nearly 15-year speaker of the Assembly and now the mayor of San Francisco. In his place as Assembly Democratic leader is Richard Katz from the San Fernando Valley community of Sylmar.

The new Assembly speaker, Republican Curt Pringle, is from Orange County, as is the recently selected Senate Republican leader, Rob Hurtt.

In the 1996 elections, beginning with a March 26 primary, the Legislature’s six most senior senators and six most veteran Assembly members will be forced to retire. All are from Northern California. All are Democrats. They have 235 years of service among them.

These lawmakers and other northern colleagues have formed the core of legislative leadership for decades.

“It’s a major change,” said Allan Hoffenblum, a Republican political consultant and the principal author of “The Target Book,” a new guide that dopes out prospects in California elections, district by district. The sole surviving leader from Northern California is Senate President Pro Tem Bill Lockyer of Hayward, and he will be forced out in 1998.

It is too soon to ascertain the full effect of the leadership shift. Undoubtedly, the old power structure is falling to the first broad sweep of the term limits scythe.

The Bay Area’s lost power will not necessarily flow to the south, or any other part of the state, Hoffenblum added. Rather, he said, there will be a constant turnover of leaders because lawmakers can no longer accrue power through seniority.

“The biggest impact of term limits is you’re going to have people become chairmen of powerful committees within a year of their being elected,” he said.

The beneficiaries will be “those who are able to get their hands on the elective process,” which could include business, labor or any number of special interest groups vying for power, Hoffenblum said.

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Imposed by a voter revolt in 1990 with Proposition 140, term limits effectively dismantle the traditional system of building power in the legislative corridors through seniority and the longtime cultivation of political allies. The measure limits service in the Legislature to two four-year terms for senators and three two-year terms for Assembly members. It is the strictest term limit law in the nation other than Nevada’s.

In total, 1996 will see more than one-fourth of the members of the Legislature forced to step down: 25 in the 80-member Assembly and 10 in the 40-member Senate. As a result, there are more open seats statewide, and more intraparty battles for legislative seats than in recent California history.

The Senate is expected to enjoy enhanced clout as term-limited Assembly members seek to extend their careers by moving into the upper house. Fourteen Assembly members have declared their intent to run for the Senate in 1996.

But the political revolt is far from total. While the sponsors of the initiative promised to eradicate “politics as usual,” most of the newcomers to the Legislature will be spawned in the same political training grounds as in the past. And the imposition of term limits has not affected the demand for campaign contributions that it takes to win a contested legislative seat.

In 1990, sponsors of the initiative pledged in the official ballot pamphlet sent to voters that Proposition 140 would rid Sacramento of career politicians and infuse the capital with “fresh cleansing air.”

Indeed, the notion of a career in the Legislature is a thing of the past.

Under the new rules, a lawmaker can last a maximum of 14 years by serving three terms in the Assembly and two in the Senate. As the old guard is phased out in 1996, at least five lawmakers will be leaving with 30 years of service each.

But there has been no great influx of “citizen politicians” seeking to win a term or two in the Legislature and then returning to their businesses or professions, as was suggested by term limit advocates.

Instead, the new candidates are cut from the same basic mold as the entry-level lawmakers of the past: local elected officials moving up the political ladder, political activists and aides of retiring lawmakers. More than 20 candidates are close relatives of longtime politicians or former legislators seeking to return.

Among the relatives is Mark S. Dymally, the son of former Lt. Gov. and Rep. Mervyn M. Dymally, who is running for the Assembly from Los Angeles. David D. Cortese is running for the Assembly seat now held by his father, term-limited Dominic Cortese, who hopes to move on to the state Senate. San Francisco Supervisor Angela Alioto, the daughter of the former Mayor Joseph L. Alioto, is running for the state Senate.

Political analysts cite one overriding reason for the absence of citizen politicians: money. When it can cost up to a million dollars to launch a career, they note, it is not surprising that those who run have some political network or are wealthy themselves.

“You can’t run for significant office in the state of California without a funding base,” said one prominent Democrat. “And the only way to do that is to be in politics and build up a base over time, or be independently rich.”

As the state Republican Party’s vice chairman, Mike Schroeder, said: “The only people getting elected are incumbents or rich people.”

In 1996, the effects of Proposition 140 are compounded by an early primary in March and the creation of more competitive legislative districts brought about by the redistricting that followed the 1990 census.

With the margin of partisan control potentially at stake--especially in the Assembly--Democrats and Republicans are battling ferociously over any seemingly vulnerable seat.

Two major developments related to term limits cited by political analysts are the early starts of many campaigns and the growing instances of intraparty primary battles, which had been largely unheard of in past years. Campaigns can gear up sooner because aspirants to the Senate and Assembly know well in advance when the seats will become open.

In Long Beach, Republican businessman Frank Colonna launched his campaign for the 27th Senate District seat more than one year ago, knowing that incumbent Sen. Robert G. Beverly (R-Long Beach) could not seek reelection.

“It gave me an opportunity in advance to do some good, solid preparatory work in getting known around the district, establishing some good connections,” Colonna said.

The internal party battles arise because politicians barred from seeking reelection to the offices they now hold are seeking other ways to remain in the Legislature. The old political practice of waiting one’s turn has given way to ambition.

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A classic case is the 25th Senate District in south Los Angeles and Inglewood. Incumbent Democrat Teresa Hughes of Inglewood is seeking reelection. But she is being challenged in the Democratic primary by term-limited Assemblyman Curtis R. Tucker Jr., also of Inglewood. Since the area is overwhelmingly Democratic in voter registration, winning the primary is tantamount to election.

When the 1997-98 California Legislature convenes in December, it will be like none other since before the state’s present Constitution was adopted in 1879, and perhaps even since California achieved statehood in 1850.

The most veteran members of the Assembly will have served barely four years in that body. There could be more than 30 open seats in the lower house--contests in which no incumbent is running.

Since the March primaries are strictly intraparty affairs, the partisan lineup of the two houses will not be settled until November. Most California political experts agree that Democrats are likely to retain narrow control of the Senate. They now hold a 21-16 margin, with two independents and one vacancy.

In the Assembly, both party leaders claim that they will win the majority. The lineup now is 41 Republicans, 37 Democrats, one member of Ross Perot’s Reform Party and one vacancy.

Democrats won big in statewide Assembly races in 1992. The GOP retaliated in 1994. Whither 1996?

Katz, the new Democratic leader in the Assembly, says the advantage is with the Democrats. A presidential election can boost voter turnout as much as 10%, he said, presumably a boon for Democratic candidates because members of their party are less likely to vote in off-year elections. Republicans must defend seats they won away from the Democrats by narrow margins in the big 1994 GOP sweep, Katz noted.

Assembly Speaker Pringle, of Garden Grove, acknowledged that the Republicans are on the defensive in such districts, “but it’s nice to have those seats.” Pringle said he believes that the GOP will have a crucial fund-raising edge this year because so many of the top Democratic money-raisers will be gone from the scene.

Pringle said Republicans benefit from a unity that Democrats lack with the departure of Brown, who was a major catalyst for his party in the Assembly.

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Some analysts are looking beyond the 1996 elections in an attempt to divine longer-term effects of the term-limits law.

Linda R. Cohen, a political science professor at UC Riverside, said the prospect is for constant turnover in leadership. Old-timers in Sacramento complain that an unwelcome byproduct of term limits is a loss of collegiality, continuity of leadership and the ability to work out differences.

They see more ideological newcomers of both parties who are less willing to compromise on issues, a situation that can lead to more bitter gridlock in Sacramento--one of the basic complaints that spawned Proposition 140.

The newcomers insist that the state will benefit from the downfall of the old boy’s network, where getting along was valued more than the partisan representation they were elected to deliver.

Schroeder, the state GOP vice chairman, said term limits have virtually eliminated the power of incumbency, and the ensuing change in culture has discomfited those who prefer the old ways.

Darry Sragow, a Los Angeles consultant whose clients include the California Democratic Party, said term limits in themselves would not significantly change the political culture or the kinds of people who seek office.

“Term limits,” Sragow added, “is like a snowflake globe, where the pieces move around inside and nothing gets out.”