Air Travelers Might Have to Use Other Airports as John Wayne Nears Cap on Passengers : The Sky’s Not the Limit

Elliot Goldman, a Lake Forest travel agent, books most of his customers on flights out of John Wayne Airport. They like the fact that it is only about 15 minutes away, he says, and usually less crowded than other Southern California airports.

But beginning next year, Goldman’s customers increasingly are likely to have to spend an hour or more driving to airports in San Diego, Ontario or Los Angeles, where the crowds will be thicker and the lines longer.

Despite plenty of space, John Wayne is about to reach a passenger limit, negotiated by airport officials in 1985 when few could have predicted with certainty the dramatic growth in air travel out of John Wayne during the 1990s. That recent announcement by airport officials means that by next year, demand is expected to exceed the number of seats. And the results, at least until that cap is lifted in 2005, are likely to include more difficulty getting flights and, ultimately, an exodus to other airports.

“For the first time, we are knocking on the door of our passenger cap,” said John S. Layerle, an airport spokesman. “If people still want to fly, they will go somewhere else.”

Local travel agents say they will deal with the crunch by booking customers through less convenient airports in Long Beach, Ontario, San Diego or Los Angeles.

“It’s going to be frustrating,” said Anne McAnally, an agent with Dana Niguel Travel in Dana Point. “We’ll just have to find the best accommodations.”

Patty McElenney of Main Street Travel in Orange agreed that at least some of her customers will be looking at a long commute to the airport.

“It will be inconvenient for some,” she said. “I will just tell people what the situation is.”

The situation wasn’t as critical in 1985, when John Wayne Airport officials signed a 20-year settlement with the city of Newport Beach and two citizens groups concerned with noise at the airport. Under the agreement, in exchange for permission to build a new passenger terminal, the airport promised to serve no more than 8.4 million passengers annually through 2005.

“Without the cap, the city of Newport Beach would not exist as we know it,” said Barbara Lichman, executive director of the Airport Working Group of Orange County, which helped negotiate the settlement. “Newport Beach would have become unlivable because of the constant noise.”

Said Layerle: “We wanted more, but this was the best deal we could get.”

While some experts warned that the cap would be reached before the agreement expired, he said, “Something that we don’t do much of is predicting. We are much better historians than we are soothsayers.”

The new terminal was completed in 1990, bringing total airport capacity to about 15 million passengers per year, slightly less than twice the legal cap. And use of the airport mushroomed, increasing from 5.7% to 16.5% annually since 1991.

Last year, about 7.2 million commercial passengers took flights originating or ending at John Wayne Airport. Officials estimate that this year, the number will reach 7.9 million.

“Our growth has been significantly higher than the national average,” Layerle said. “If we’re not at capacity now, the tea leaves say we will be there next year.”

When that happens, officials of airlines serving John Wayne said, they will begin taking new business elsewhere.

“It’s very frustrating, because the flights that we have there are doing well,” said Linda Burke Rutherford, a spokeswoman for Southwest Airlines, which has 14 daily flights to Oakland and San Jose. “We recognize that John Wayne Airport represents a highly regulated community, and we are working within those controls. But, obviously, unless we can get the kind of slots that will offer our customers consistent service, there won’t be much opportunity for us to grow there.”

Lou Cancelmi, a spokesman for Alaska Airlines, which flies to Oakland, Portland and Seattle, said his company will be affected significantly by the cap.

“There’s a strong demand in the marketplace for service to Orange County,” he said, “and if you are an airline, you’re in the business of satisfying that demand. To the extent that people from Orange County will have to go elsewhere, they will be the losers.”

That could mean long drives and big headaches for people such as Paul and Suzie Feick, who said they take six or more flights out of John Wayne Airport every year.

The two live in Irvine, just 10 minutes away from the airport, and shudder at the thought of having to drive to LAX or San Diego.

“I’d be really bummed out,” said Paul Feick, 56, a retired computer company executive, as he waited in line at John Wayne to buy tickets recently. The local airport is so close, he said, “that I can forget my passport, go back home to get it,” and still not miss his flight.

“It’s very inconvenient for me to go to LAX and fight the traffic and stress,” he said.

The projected growth and impending cap come at a time when Orange County residents are debating whether to establish a commercial airport at El Toro Marine Corps Air Station after the military abandons it in 1999. Voters will go to the polls next month to decide on a measure that would block construction of a new airport at the base.

A report commissioned by county officials and released in January found that about 46% of passengers coming to or leaving Orange County now use neighboring airports, and that by 2020, the figure will reach 72%. But opponents of a new airport called the figures inflated.

Even if a new airport is built, however, it’s unknown whether it would open by 2005, when the cap at John Wayne expires.

In the meantime, travel agents say they will try to make the best of a frustrating situation.

“San Diego is a very viable alternative,” said Denise Vaccaro, owner of Capistrano Travel in San Juan Capistrano. Although San Diego’s Lindbergh Field is about 60 miles away, twice the distance to John Wayne, she said, many travelers prefer it to the vagaries of LAX.

“They will be driving farther or changing their plans to accommodate the airline schedules,” Vaccaro said.

Doug Brown, owner of Laguna Travel Service in Laguna Beach, said it’s “going to make it difficult for everybody. . . . I think people will find it irritating, but I don’t think they’re going to fly any less.”

Times staff writer Greg Miller contributed to this report.