Smog Proposal Shifts Emissions to Wintertime

In a novel move that would shift some summer air pollution to winter, air quality regulators are crafting a new strategy allowing industrial emissions in Southern California to increase in the off-season for smog.

Clean air rules are typically set to achieve clearer skies year-round. But the high cost of pollution control and strong resistance from the business community have forced the South Coast Air Quality Management District to seek more economical ways to regulate smog.

The smog problem would improve during the warmer months under the plan. But asthmatics and others with sensitive health may not like the seasonal approach, and it may disrupt some jobs in industries that shift their work schedules.

Support from business, which the concept is designed to help, is not guaranteed.

“I don’t personally know any industries that would see it as an advantage,” said Gary Stafford, vice president of Terra Furniture in Vernon and leader of an industry trade group.

The head of a Huntington Beach firm was cautiously optimistic.

“It may place some burden on manufacturing schedules, but the concept is good,” said Ed Laird, president of Coatings Resource Corp., which manufactures specialty coatings for industry.

In a report to be presented Friday to the AQMD board, the agency’s staff recommends letting manufacturing plants release more smog-causing compounds into the air in December, January and February, while reducing emissions during the rest of the year.

Total pollution released during the year would not change. But moving some summertime emissions into the winter, when winds and cooler temperatures keep the skies much clearer, would ease smog during the Southland’s peak season.

Ozone, the eye-stinging, lung-damaging gas that is the main ingredient of smog, is rarely if ever a problem during winter. But in warmer months, the Los Angeles Basin is blanketed by an oppressive layer of ozone formed when emissions react with each other and with sunlight and are trapped by still air. About 95% of the area’s health standard violations occur from April through September.

“The atmosphere can tolerate greater emissions in the winter without compromising air quality as a result of less sunlight to drive the photochemistry,” the AQMD staff report says.

Smog problems have steadily decreased in recent years in Orange County and elsewhere in Southern California. No first-stage alerts for ozone were reported in the county in 1995, but in the county’s northern area--which traditionally registers the most alerts countywide--ozone exceeded the federal standard on four days, according to preliminary AQMD data. Central Orange County exceeded the standard on two days, and the Saddleback Valley/South County area once.

The aim of the strategy is to ease the economic blow to manufacturers by letting them shift some production to winter months rather than curtail year-round activities or install costly equipment to comply with pollution limits.

The magnitude of pollution increases envisioned in winter under the concept has yet to be determined by the AQMD staff. But officials say that even if industrial emissions double or triple in wintertime, they would remain far below the level necessary to trigger a health violation or full-scale smog alert.

Few residents, the AQMD contends, would notice the increase in winter smog.

“The potential adverse impacts . . . in winter months are small,” the report says. “Significant amounts of [emissions] can be shifted from summer to winter months without causing any” health standard violations.

That could be little solace for asthmatics and others with respiratory disease who have trouble breathing even when pollution falls within government health limits.

“Increasing emissions any time is a bad idea,” said Gladys Meade, an air quality consultant for the American Lung Assn. “They should proceed very carefully with this . . . There are a lot of factors they are not looking at, like the reactivity of the compounds. For another, the weather is not all that predictable.”

The strategy also could affect the labor force at hundreds of plants in Los Angeles, Orange, San Bernardino and Riverside counties.

“There may be a greater need for temporary workers in the non-ozone winter season,” the AQMD report says. “Moreover, as facilities shift their production schedules to [winter], unemployment could rise during the smog season.”

Business leaders say shifting production schedules is impractical for most companies. Many manufacturers face year-round demand for their goods and services.

At Coatings Resource Corp., Laird suggested that businesses might be able to reformulate certain compounds, using less reactive solvents during smoggy months.

AQMD spokesman Bill Kelly said the staff is analyzing what kinds of companies could participate. “For example, some aerospace companies could schedule some of the painting of airplanes in the off-smog season,” he said. Other companies that could shift production are ones that operate in cycles, perhaps including printers of phone books and annual reports.

Times staff writer Deborah Schoch contributed to this story.