‘Double-Dealing’ a Big Hurdle to Balkan Peace

As U.S. mediators prepare for a crucial meeting in Rome starting today with the presidents of Bosnia, Serbia and Croatia, they face a difficult and nagging question: With the survival of the Dayton peace accord hanging in the balance, can any of the three compel cooperation by the angry and heavily armed troops they are supposed to lead?

There is growing evidence that Presidents Slobodan Milosevic of Serbia, Franjo Tudjman of Croatia and Alija Izetbegovic of Bosnia-Herzegovina are unable, or perhaps unwilling, to fulfill all the terms of the complex pact.

Nevertheless, Clinton administration officials said there are no attractive alternatives to continuing to deal with the three presidents. Despite clear violations of the accord on all sides, these officials said, Milosevic, Tudjman and Izetbegovic have kept more of their promises than they have broken.

“They’ve all been trying to double-deal us, but this is the Balkans, and there are no angels,” a White House official said.

During the bitter war in Bosnia, the administration made no secret of its conclusion that the Serbs were the primary aggressors and were guilty of the bulk of the war crimes. But U.S. officials have been far more even-handed in distributing the blame for violations of the peace plan.

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Serious questions have been raised about the capacity of Milosevic to force the Bosnian Serbs to cooperate fully with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization-led peacekeepers and to abide by other provisions of the treaty, such as a requirement that they surrender indicted war criminals, including some of their own top leaders. At the same time, Tudjman’s influence over Bosnian Croats, especially those engaged in a bitter dispute with Bosnian Muslims in the divided city of Mostar, is in serious doubt.

And the arrest Thursday of a group of Islamic fighters accused of plotting to bomb NATO bases raises new questions about Izetbegovic’s control of his own government and its relationship with the guerrillas who fought on the government’s side during three years of war. They were required by the peace agreement to leave the country last month. The Bosnian president has repeatedly assured U.S. officials that all foreign guerrillas are out of the country.

A Bosnian Serb boycott of meetings with NATO commanders because of the arrest by the Bosnian government of several Serbian military officers underlined the precarious nature of the peace process. But U.S. officials said the 10-day-old boycott seems to be easing, and they credit Milosevic with persuading the Serbs to return to the table.

“So far, he has delivered on most of the things we have asked of him,” a White House official said. “We don’t expect that he can control every loony.”

Moreover, Washington says, there is no one else to talk to who seems better able to deliver compliance by the Bosnian Serbs. “We’re going to continue relying on Milosevic,” said a senior State Department official. “The Bosnian Serbs do not have a unified leadership right now.”

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The two best-known Bosnian Serb leaders, Radovan Karadzic and Ratko Mladic, have been indicted for war crimes by the international tribunal in The Hague. A White House official said Washington deals with Milosevic, in part at least, because of “our unwillingness to consort with war criminals.”

U.S. officials are concerned by Tudjman’s inability to control the Bosnian Croats in Mostar. But they say that the Croatian president’s influence is far greater in other aspects of the conflict.

Regarding Izetbegovic and his Muslim-led government, Washington openly sympathized with his side throughout the war and so reacted angrily at the discovery of the Islamic fighters who were apparently planning terrorist attacks on NATO troops.

“We have received extremely disturbing reports that some Bosnian government officials may have been involved in the activities at this [guerrilla] facility,” State Department spokesman Nicholas Burns said.

“It is not tolerable for the Bosnian government to allow foreign fighters . . . to stay on Bosnian soil, because they represent a likely and probable threat against our troops,” he said.

Burns said Washington has no evidence that Izetbegovic was personally implicated in the incident.

“We have every reason to believe that President Izetbegovic will do the right thing here,” Burns said. “He will make sure that this particular operation is fully shut down and any other operation similar to it will be fully shut down. That is his obligation.”

Administration officials and nongovernmental experts agree that all three Balkan presidents must overcome substantial political opposition within their own camps if they wish to cooperate with the West. One official said they will only move when they are pushed by the United States and its allies. A major purpose of this weekend’s meeting in Rome is to exert such pressure.

Milosevic, Tudjman and Izetbegovic have already received substantial rewards for going along with the peace process. Most economic and political sanctions against Serbia have been suspended; Croatia has made substantial strides toward European integration; and the Bosnian government has been promised U.S. assistance in training and arming its military force.

But U.S. officials said that the rewards can be snatched away if the three presidents do not deliver on their promises.