Rifts in Party Set Stage for Divisive Struggle

Patrick J. Buchanan’s narrow victory over Bob Dole and Lamar Alexander Tuesday night sharply split New Hampshire voters by class, education and ideology and set up a divisive struggle for the GOP presidential nomination, a Times exit poll found.

Buchanan and Alexander mounted a two-front assault to topple Dole from his perch as the party’s front-runner.

Only Sen. Dole among the leading contenders demonstrated consistent appeal to both moderate and conservative voters, but he could not muster enough support among either group to escape his rivals. Alexander narrowly bested Dole among moderates, and Buchanan beat him by 15 percentage points among conservatives to capture his stunning, if slim, victory, the survey found.

Dole also struggled against concerns about his age: The Senate majority leader ran poorly with the young, and 43% of all primary voters said they believe he is too old to serve as president.

The poll shows that Buchanan’s strong showing was fueled largely by economic discontent, as was the case in his 1992 challenge to President Bush. On Tuesday, Buchanan ran best among voters pessimistic about their own economic situation and the country’s direction.

But the survey also makes it clear that his supporters no longer view him as merely a vehicle of protest: Eight in 10 Buchanan voters said they expect him to win the GOP nomination. And Buchanan voters were more likely than Alexander or Dole supporters to say that they backed him because they like him and his policies, rather than because they view him as the best of a bad lot or as a means of delivering a protest.

The Times Poll, supervised by acting poll director Susan Pinkus, surveyed 2,415 Republican primary voters as they left their polling places Tuesday. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Dole was helped by respect for his personal qualities: He carried two-thirds of the voters who cited experience as a critical factor in their choice and half of those who mentioned leadership. But he was weighed down by doubts not only about his age but also his commitment to principle.

Among the roughly one-fourth of Republican voters who said they chose their candidate because “he stands up for his convictions,” Dole carried just 1 in 9, with 56% backing Buchanan. All of the leading contenders called themselves conservatives, but among the 12% of the voters who said they chose their candidate because “he is a true conservative,” 3 in 5 gave their votes to Buchanan, far more than votes for Dole or Alexander.

Lagging in the polls here for months, Alexander was boosted Tuesday by a relatively strong showing among independents, who are permitted to vote in New Hampshire’s primary. The former Tennessee governor appeared to benefit most from the collapse of support for magazine publisher Steve Forbes, who had been attracting a clear plurality of independents in surveys here as recently as early this month.

Alexander closed well. He carried one-third of the voters who made their choice sometime between last weekend and Tuesday (nearly 40% of all voters made their decisions that late). Dole attracted about one-fourth of those voters, Buchanan only 1 in 5.

As the primaries hurtle forward, the three-way division established here could become the norm, especially in the South, where Alexander will stake his hopes on the burgeoning suburban middle-class outside such cities as Atlanta, Greenville, S.C., and Tampa, Fla. Buchanan will target economically disaffected blue-collar workers and evangelical Christians, who provided him substantial margins both here and in Iowa last week.

Split in Support

For Dole, the challenge will be to hold on to enough of the center to outlast one of his two rivals and escape the three-way demographic and ideological vise that cost him New Hampshire and has shattered the aura of inevitability he hoped would surround his nomination.

Each of the leading candidates demonstrated divergent patterns of support that largely followed the demographic and ideological grooves cut in last week’s Iowa caucuses.

As in Iowa, Tuesday night’s vote showed only a minimal gender gap. Income and education were more telling. Buchanan ran best among working-class and less well-educated voters. His support dropped as voter income and education increased.

Buchanan carried a clear plurality of voters with a high school education or less, but trailed both Dole and Alexander among those with at least four years of college.

Similarly, Buchanan ran up a greater than 2-to-1 advantage over Alexander, Dole and Forbes among voters earning $20,000 a year or less. But, again, he trailed both Dole and Alexander among those earning $60,000 or more.

Voters earning $20,000 to $60,000 annually split almost evenly between Buchanan and Dole, with Alexander slightly trailing.

Beyond working-class and less-educated voters, the other bastion of Buchanan’s support was social conservatives. Buchanan carried 51% of voters who identified themselves as born-again Christians--a slightly higher percentage than he attracted in Iowa and more than four times the share won by either Alexander or Dole.

That augurs well for Buchanan in the next few weeks: Evangelical Christians constitute only about 10% of the electorate in New Hampshire, one of the smallest shares in any GOP primary. But such voters constitute 40% or more of the electorate in many of the Southern states.

Only about 10% of New Hampshire primary voters mentioned abortion as a principal factor in their decision, but about 6 in 10 of those preferred Buchanan. Asked directly if they supported a ban on abortion, including a ban with exceptions, just under half of Republican voters said yes. They gave Buchanan a substantial lead over Dole.

A slight majority of primary voters said abortion should remain legal without exceptions, and they preferred Alexander narrowly over Dole.

Dole’s support, in fact, varied little among voters who want to ban abortion and those who believe it should remain legal. Nor did his support vary much by ideology: Almost exactly half of Dole’s vote came from moderates and half from conservatives.

By contrast, both Alexander and Buchanan drew disproportionately from one side of the moderate-conservative ledger. Almost 7 in 10 of Alexander’s votes came from moderates; roughly the same percentage of Buchanan’s votes came from conservatives.

As those figures suggest, Dole’s greatest strength here was the breadth rather than the depth of his appeal. Dole attracted a steady fourth of the vote--sometimes slightly more, sometimes slightly less--from voters of middle and upper incomes, voters with some college education or a four-year degree, Catholics and non-Catholics, and moderates and conservatives.

These numbers offer Dole his best prospect of revival from this powerful blow. Alexander and Buchanan appear to need each other in the race to contain Dole by slicing at his support from both sides. Alexander demonstrated little attraction for conservatives and Buchanan little for moderates, while Dole performed respectably with both.

If Dole can force either Buchanan or Alexander from the race over the next few weeks, the balance might tilt back in his favor. Without Alexander in the field, Dole might unify moderates against Buchanan while attracting a competitive share of conservatives, as he did here. In the less likely possibility that Buchanan is forced from the field, Dole might unify conservatives (especially social conservatives) against Alexander, while continuing to divide moderates.

Dole suffered from the tendency of voters to take out their dissatisfaction with the nation’s direction against the incumbent, which, for all intents and purposes, he became in this race. Dole carried voters who considered the nation on the right track, but they amounted to just 30% of the voters. The nearly 70% of GOP primary voters who considered the nation on the wrong track gave Buchanan a healthy margin over Dole.

Likewise, Buchanan carried the nearly half of primary voters who said they fear the standard of living will decline for the next generation.

That, however, didn’t mean that voters unequivocally endorsed Buchanan’s agenda of economic nationalism, highlighted by calls to repeal the North American Free Trade Agreement and impose stiff new tariffs on imports from China, Japan and the Third World.

Voters who cited the economy and jobs as their top concern (just about half) gave Buchanan only a narrow margin over Alexander and Dole. Dole led decisively among the slightly more than one-third of primary voters who cited balancing the budget as a top concern.

The issue that dominated the Republican debate in January faded in Tuesday’s voting, along with the man who forced it to the forefront. Just 12% of those polled said the flat tax was among the most important issues; two-thirds of those backed Forbes, who led in the polls here for weeks but faded to a weak fourth.

Asked directly, a slight majority of primary voters said they oppose the flat tax. Just 3% of those anti-flat tax voters backed Forbes. Even among flat-tax supporters, Forbes ran only evenly with Buchanan, with Alexander and Dole close on their heels.

Alexander Appeal

Alexander appeared to assume Forbes’ mantle as the alternative for more-moderate and less-partisan voters. He carried both voters who identified themselves as independents and those who did not call themselves conservative. Alexander won almost a third of voters younger than 45, compared with about a fourth for Buchanan and a fifth for Dole.

But Alexander carried only about 1 in 5 Republicans, while Dole and Buchanan each attracted about 30%--and just 1 in 6 conservatives. The pattern of support Alexander demonstrated here could make him competitive in other areas where independent-minded and social-policy moderates speak with a loud voice. Those areas include the Northeast and the West, and California in particular.

Still, like Dole, Alexander is hobbled by fractionation. Between them, Forbes, who has pledged to remain in the race, and Sen. Richard G. Lugar of Indiana attracted nearly one fourth of the moderate vote in the primary.

And even with his appeal to moderate suburbanites, Alexander may have difficulty advancing his campaign if he can’t quickly improve his showing among conservatives, who dominate the Republican electorates in the South.

Special consultant Dwight Morris contributed to this story.

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The Times Poll: The Message Behind the Votes

Why did New Hampshire Republican primary voters vote the way they did? This exit poll by The Times provides a glimpse at the voters’ motivations. It is based on interviews with 2,415 Republican primary voters at 60 representative polling places across the state. The numbers given are percentages.

Why did you support your candidate?

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Buchanan Dole Alexander Forbes voters voters voters voters Like him, his policies 71% 64% 53% 68% Best of a bad lot 22% 34% 41% 23% To send a protest message 7% 2% 6% 9%

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****

If your candidate wins the nomination, how certain is it you’re going to vote for that candidate in November?

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Buchanan Dole Alexander Forbes voters voters voters voters Certain 75% 75% 54% 67% Might vote for another 25% 25% 46% 33%

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****

All Republican Voters

What did you like most about your candidate? (2 responses accepted)

Has experience: 27%

Stands up for his convictions: 26%

Has strong qualities of leadership: 18%

I trust him more than the others: 16%

Has new ideas: 15%

Cares about people like me: 14%

A true conservative: 12%

Can bring needed change: 12%

Is not a career politician: 11%

Can win in November: 7%

Not beholden to special interests: 4%

None of the above: 6%

****

Would you be more inclined to back a Republican presidential candidate who:

Tries to appeal to all kinds of voters? 29%

Sticks to conservative principles? 32%

It would depend on the candidate: 39%

****

Which issues were most important to you in deciding how you would vote? (2 responses accepted)

Jobs/economy: 51%

Balancing the budget: 37%

Education: 21%

Flat tax: 12%

Abortion: 10%

Health care: 8%

Foreign trade: 7%

Foreign affairs: 6%

Crime/drugs: 5%

Affirmative action: 2%

Repealing assault weapons ban: 2%

None of the above: 10%

****

Which of these things had a major influence on your vote today? (Multiple responses accepted)

Candidate debates: 24%

Buchanan’s criticism of foreign trade agreements: 22%

Dole’s age: 18%

Dole too willing to compromise: 14%

Campaign advertisements: 14%

A personal meeting with a candidate: 8%

Charges that Forbes tried to buy the election: 7%

Dole’s support for deploying U.S. troops to Bosnia: 7%

Forbes not releasing his tax records: 6%

Manchester Union Leader endorsement: 4%

None of the above: 34%

****

Would you support replacing the current federal income tax with a flat tax that would eliminate home mortgage deductions and charitable contributions?

Support: 47%

Oppose: 53%

****

Do you think Bob Dole is:

Too old to be president: 43%

Not too old to be president: 57%

****

Do you think abortion should be made illegal in all cases, except for rape, incest and to save the life of the mother?

Yes: 47%

No: 53%

Notes: Percentages may not add up to 100% where more than one response was accepted or not all answer categories are shown.

Source: Los Angeles Times exit poll conducted Feb. 20

HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED: The Los Angeles Times Poll interviewed 2,415 voters who cast ballots in the New Hampshire Republican primary as they exited 60 polling places across the state. Unaffiliated voters can re-register to vote on primary day. Precincts were chosen based on the pattern of turnout in past primary elections. The survey was a self-administered, confidential questionnaire. The margin of sampling error for Republican primary voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For some subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Fieldwork for this survey was conducted by Blum & Weprin Inc.

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New Hampshire Results

Results from the New Hampshire primary, with 98% of the precincts reporting:

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Buchanan Dole Alexander Forbes % OF VOTE 27% 26% 23% 12% DELEGATES 6 4 4 2 TOTAL TO DATE 25 16 9 5

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(996 delegates needed for nomination)