CAMPAIGN ’96 : GOP Rivals Ride Into Arizona for Western Showdown

Now it’s time for the voice of the West, an early primary in Arizona scheduled last year by state Republican leaders who argued that a different breed of GOP voter ought to have a major say in the presidential contest.

But as the candidates arrive here, preparing for a scheduled debate today that kicks off a quick campaign culminating in next Tuesday’s voting, the story line parallels the one that developed in Iowa and New Hampshire--Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole finds himself under assault, hoping to hold off Patrick J. Buchanan, whose impromptu organization has been electrified by early successes.

“One thing about Pat--his supporters will always turn out,” Arizona Republican Gov. Fife Symington said in an interview Wednesday. “So if he’s close, he wins. And he comes in here with a head of steam.”

Lamar Alexander, the third candidate to emerge from the Iowa and New Hampshire races with a realistic shot at the GOP nomination, may end up making at best a cursory effort in Arizona as he saves his resources for other primaries.

So Dole supporters say Arizona may offer just what he asked for Tuesday night as it became clear he would lose the New Hampshire vote to Buchanan: a one-on-one showdown “for the soul of the Republican Party.”

At the same time, the Dole aides worry about getting just what they asked for. They are particularly concerned that the expected low turnout in Arizona’s vote will benefit Buchanan.

At one time, Symington and Arizona Sen. John McCain had organized much of the state’s GOP hierarchy behind Texas Sen. Phil Gramm’s presidential campaign.

But Gramm dropped out of the race after a poor showing in the Iowa caucuses this month. And now the state’s Republican leadership is fractured. McCain signed on with Dole, but Symington has decided to remain neutral.

Symington says the best grass-roots effort in the state now belongs to Buchanan and people like Karen Johnson, a suburban mother of 11 who put her furniture in storage so she could transform her modest tract home here into a campaign headquarters for the conservative commentator.

This week, Johnson’s living room, kitchen and bedrooms were crammed with folding tables and telephones staffed by volunteers. Outside, drop-in supporters who offered help were sent away with stacks of the lawn signs that have become ubiquitous around Phoenix.

“This is flying by a wing and a prayer, but I think Pat’s going to win,” Johnson said between interruptions by volunteers seeking direction. “It’s crazy how this has just kind of mushroomed.”

Across town, Dole’s Arizona leaders are confident that the Kansas senator can win the race in Arizona. But they also concede that success depends on a major effort, and they are disappointed that, as of Wednesday, Dole was not planning to attend tonight’s debate in Tempe.

“The Dole campaign has its work cut out for it,” said McCain, who told the senator’s staff it would be a mistake for the candidate to skip the debate. “We’ve got to regain the momentum and get on message.”

Symington also spoke respectfully of Dole’s chances and his candidacy. But the governor warned: “My advice to all the candidates who want to win Arizona is that they better be here and debate. We like to be courted, just the way New Hampshirites do.”

Dole campaign officials said the senator’s schedule is tight, now that several important races will be held in the next few weeks.

Dole was expected to be in Arizona on Friday and through the weekend. Instead of participating in the Arizona debate, they said he would be campaigning in North and South Dakota, where primaries also will be held Tuesday.

Additionally, Dole is gearing up for a major showdown with Buchanan and Alexander in South Carolina’s March 2 primary, where strategists expect the winner will carry an important momentum into subsequent contests in the South and Midwest.

Republican officials here counter that their primary offers a rich treasure--all of Arizona’s 39 convention delegates go to the winner, unlike the contests so far where delegates were assigned according to a proportion of each candidate’s vote.

Alexander’s campaign said Wednesday that the former Tennessee governor was planning to be in Arizona today, but other commitments were still under consideration.

State officials speculated that Alexander--whose finances are scarce--would limit his effort in Arizona, since he has largely ignored the state thus far and it would be difficult for him to finish better than third even if he did compete.

It also was unclear how much of an effort in Arizona would be mounted by publishing magnate Steve Forbes, who once was ahead in the polls here but who has sagged badly.

Since October, Forbes has spent at least $2 million on television commercials in the state, more than any candidate in Arizona history and twice the media budget that Symington required in a hard-fought 1994 reelection race. Much of Forbes’ advertising was aimed at Dole--a series of attacks that may now largely benefit Buchanan.

A new survey, taken by Arizona State University and conducted before the stunning New Hampshire results, gave Dole 16%, Forbes 15%, Buchanan 10% and Alexander 2%. More than half of those polled--55%--were undecided.

Dole strategists hope to cast the contest as a fight for the Republican Party’s future, in order to motivate their supporters.

“Our challenge here is to persuade Republicans of the importance of this vote and to get them to actually go to the polls,” said Arizona Atty. Gen. Grant Woods.

Referring to the high turnout in New Hampshire, he said, “In the freezing rain, almost all of the Republicans [there] turned out to vote, and yet, with the best weather in the country, early projections here were for 10% [turnout]. If you have a very low turnout here, then Pat Buchanan could win the state.”

Woods charged that a low turnout was part of the design engineered by Gramm supporters, who figured it would be beneficial to their candidate. As a result, he said, they cut the state’s normal number of polling places by two-thirds.

Symington officials said the reduction in polling places was intended to reduce costs, not to benefit Gramm. But they acknowledge that voter turnout may be the deciding factor in the state’s contest.

For Buchanan, motivating voters was the assignment given to volunteer Bob Wolff, a 62-year-old plastics worker who drove 70 miles this week to make telephone calls from Johnson’s living room in Mesa.

Like many other Arizonans, he complains that the federal government controls nearly 70% of the state’s land in parks or preserves. Wolff said that Buchanan is the only candidate he trusts to give that power back to state authorities.

“I’m telling you, the federal government should only control 10 square miles around Washington, D.C.,” Wolff said between calls. “The truth is, I think this is unconstitutional.”