CAMPAIGN ’96 : Profile of the Arizona Electorate

Voter News Service interviewed voters in the Arizona Republican primary as they left the polls. As a result, these numbers do not reflect absentee votes. The table below shows how various groups divided their votes among the candidates. For example: of all male voters, 31% voted for Steve Forbes, 31% for Patrick J. Buchanan and 28% for Bob Dole.

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% of all GOP voters who are: Forbes Buchanan Dole Alexander SEX 53% Male 31% 31% 28% 6% 42% Female 32% 27% 29% 8% EDUCATION 57% Some college or less 30% 34% 28% 6% 43% College graduate 34% 25% 33% 5% RELIGION 53% Protestant 31% 28% 32% 6% 20% Catholic 32% 30% 31% 7% 17% Other Christian 28% 45% 22% 3% PART OF THE RELIGOUS RIGHT 29% Yes 20% 48% 26% 2% 66% No 37% 22% 32% 8% POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY 30% Liberal/Moderate 39% 18% 32% 10% 42% Somewhat conservative 33% 27% 32% 6% 28% Very conservative 24% 47% 24% 2% FAMILY INCOME 6% Under $15,000 28% 22% 37% 9% 18% $15,000 to under $30,000 32% 30% 31% 5% 34% $30,000 to under $50,000 32% 35% 26% 5% 42% $50,000 or more 32% 27% 32% 7% AGE 9% 18-29 32% 25% 31% 11% 24% 30-44 33% 32% 24% 7% 25% 45-59 34% 36% 25% 4% 42% 60 or over 30% 27% 37% 5% WHEN DID YOU DECIDE WHOM TO VOTE FOR? 17% Today 33% 22% 30% 10% 16% Within the 33% 33% 22% 9% last three days

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This table shows how those voted for the top four candidates described their reasons for voting as they did. For example: Among those who voted for Steve Forbes, 54% said the issue that mattered the most was taxes, 12% said the deficit, 12% said the economy and jobs.

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WHICH ISSUE MATTERED MOST IN DECIDING HOW TO VOTE? All GOP voters Forbes Buchanan Dole Alexander Taxes 26% 54% 12% 12% 19% Deficit 17% 12% 8% 32% 18% Economy/jobs 15% 12% 11% 18% 29% Abortion 11% 4% 23% 5% 6% Immigration 10% 4% 24% 5% 4% Trade 4% 1% 5% 6% 2% WHICH CANDIDATE QUALITY MATTERED MOST? Stands up for 21% 7% 51% 8% 9% what he believes Best represents 19% 15% 23% 20% 13% conservative values Has a vision for 13% 25% 8% 4% 16% the future Not a career 13% 34% 3% 1% 5% politician He can beat 12% 5% 6% 26% 11% Clinton Has experience 10% 1% 1% 30% 5% in Washington Not too extreme 6% 6% 1% 6% 35% AS PRESIDENT, BOB DOLE’S AGE WOULD: Help him 6% 3% 3% 13% 1% Hurt him 31% 39% 36% 13% 43% Makes no 61% 55% 57% 72% 54% difference IS BUCHANAN TOO EXTREME? Yes 55% 68% 12% 81% 81% No 42% 29% 88% 16% 15% DO YOU PREFER: A flat-tax 60% 76% 63% 44% 41% system A graduated tax 37% 22% 32% 53% 56% system IN THE NEXT 10 YEARS THE AVERAGE AMERICAN’S STANDARD OF LIVING: Will rise 45% 47% 39% 51% 42% Will fall 51% 49% 57% 46% 51%

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Notes: Percentages may not add up to 100% because not all candidates and answer ctaegories are shown.

HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED: The VNS Arizona Poll interviewed 2,102 voters who cast ballots in the Republican primary as they exited 40 polling places across the state. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample is approximately plus or minus 4 percentage points. For some subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. The VNS exit polls were developed and conducted by Voter News Service. VNS is an association of ABC News, CNN, CBS News, NBC News and the Associated Press.