Dole, Forbes Look Ahead to N.Y. Showdown

While voters in 10 states prepared to render decisions today in the largest delegate sweepstakes so far in the Republican presidential race, Bob Dole and Steve Forbes were already dashing toward Thursday’s big showdown: New York.

Forbes, heir to a publishing fortune, began what is expected to be roughly $1 million in broadcast and cable TV advertising before New York’s primary. New York political strategists said the short but intense bombardment would deliver Forbes’ message to a typical resident 8.5 times by election day--an effort described as major in such a compressed time frame.

Dole, majority leader of the Senate, also was advertising in New York, although reportedly spending only $250,000. But Dole has the advantage of organizational support from virtually the entire state GOP establishment.

Before a large crowd at an airport rally in Albany, Dole said that a victory in the state would “demoralize” his rivals.

“You know New York could do it; it could do it,” he told about 1,000 enthusiastic supporters who gathered in a hangar at dinner time. “It could demoralize every other candidate in this race. They wouldn’t even be able to write checks anymore, they would be so nervous and so shaky about the election. You can do it right here.”

In separate appearances in the Northeast, Dole and Forbes dueled over the publisher’s idea for a national flat tax. Dole moved further away from his vague, earlier support for the idea, saying he would want to allow deductions for state and local taxes in any such legislation, a concern dear to the wallets of New Yorkers.

Adding to his earlier endorsements, Dole forced an awkward expression of support from House Speaker Newt Gingrich. Gingrich cast his absentee ballot for Dole early Monday in the Georgia primary. But the speaker, who had planned to keep his decision private, acknowledged his choice after Dole surprised him with a public thank-you.

Later, Gingrich called Dole a “great leader.”

Patrick J. Buchanan minimized the endorsement of Dole by the point man for the GOP’s congressional revolution: “I heard it was very tepid. That’s the way it should be.”

Overall, the rebounding Dole now faces a new, if welcome, problem: expectations. With polls showing him leading in today’s voting in 10 states, and his campaign visibly delighted with recent events, any loss will be a setback for his hopes of establishing an image of invincibility and inevitability going into New York and a pell-mell cascade of primaries thereafter.

Opponents hoped to exploit this new dynamic by capitalizing on their strengths in select states today: Forbes in Connecticut and Colorado, and Buchanan in Georgia.

The fourth man in the field, former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander, set a do-or-dropout deadline. He said he must win in Florida on March 12 or he would withdraw from the race. Alexander had hoped to make a strong showing in Georgia, a state that borders Tennessee. But now he seems to be conceding his also-ran status in the many votes between now and Florida.

Calling himself a “realist” whose ultimate goal is putting a Republican in the White House, Alexander said he will “gracefully and promptly say he was wrong” and call it quits if Dole beats him in Florida.

With most eyes now on Dole, Buchanan leveled the toughest attacks on the Senate leader Monday.

A candidate who has complained bitterly when opponents called him an extremist, Buchanan did something of the same sort, branding Dole with a word that is almost as loaded in Deep South GOP politics: He called the Senate leader a “liberal.” This was a notch harsher, perhaps, than the day before, when Buchanan called Dole a “collaborator” with Democratic President Clinton.

Buchanan also continued to ridicule Dole as a “bellhop for the Business Roundtable,” an organization with a membership that includes chief executives of 220 of the nation’s biggest corporations.

At the same time, Buchanan sought to broaden his appeal and counter the criticism that his campaign attracts and appeals to racist impulses in society. In Roswell, Ga., he made an appearance with African American owners of small businesses.

One executive, Parker Harvey, owner of Health Care Professional Services Inc. and sponsor of the gathering, went straight to the heart of the issue: “If I felt that Patrick Buchanan was racist, I would not work for his campaign and I would not defend him.”

Harvey said he likes Buchanan’s commitment to lowering corporate taxes for small businesses and abolishing inheritance taxes, but admitted it’s not easy to be black and campaign for Buchanan.

“My issues in this campaign have to do with economics,” he said. “The social issues are something I’ll deal with later on.”

He added: “I’m accused of being a sellout. I ask people, where’s my check? If I’m selling somebody out, please give me the money.”

After a disappointing finish in South Carolina, Buchanan made it clear that he is setting his political hopes on winning in some parts of Georgia, where delegates are awarded to winners in each of the state’s 11 congressional districts.

“If we can do well here, I genuinely believe we can crack open the South,” Buchanan said.

In addition to Georgia, primaries will be held today in Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont, Connecticut and Colorado. Caucuses will be held in Minnesota and Washington. At stake are 259 delegates, 26% of those needed for nomination.

Forbes’ strategy rests on hopes for a surprise win in Connecticut and a strong showing in Colorado. That would pave the path for New York, where campaign manager William Dal Dol said: “I’d like to be a solid first or real strong second.”

In personal appearances, Dole and Forbes on Monday focused on economics, and in particular on taxes and Forbes’ 17% flat-tax idea to replace the progressive, exemption-laden federal income tax.

In Buffalo, Dole said the elimination of deductions for home mortgages would cause a serious backlash. “If they weren’t deductible, we’d probably have a revolution up here, right?” Dole told a cheering crowd of workers.

Later, in Albany, Dole took a significant new swipe at the flat-tax concept, saying state and local taxes also should remain deductible from any federal levy. Among dozens of various flat-tax proposals idealized by Republicans, none before has envisioned deductions for state and local taxes.

Dole described what he wants as a “simpler tax system.”

But he may be creating problems for himself down the road. By defending these deductions, and the deduction for charitable donations, Dole continued to narrow his maneuverability to propose his own tax-simplification plan later. To maintain all of those deductions in any tax-simplification plan could require an overall tax rate too high to be politically attractive.

Forbes, working his way through New England toward Buffalo, made an appearance in Maine, where he was told that most families earn about $25,000 a year. “My flat tax would take most of the people here off the tax rolls,” he said.

In New Haven, Conn., the candidate walked into his liveliest encounter--a bantering, booing, hissing, demonstrating, good-natured encounter at Yale University.

About half a dozen students waved Clinton-Gore ’96 signs and others mildly jeered Forbes’ standard stump speech before an audience of about 400.

Forbes asked the audience one of his typical series of rhetorical questions: Do the students want four more years of Clinton?

“Yes!” a student shouted, drawing laughs and applause from the crowd.

Forbes continued to attack Clinton, saying the president relies on public opinion. As Forbes said, “There’s more to politics than polling,” a student shouted: “There’s money!”

And Forbes was halfway through a sound bite on economic growth, saying, “Every time America cuts taxes . . . “ when a student shouted: “You get richer.”

Also, when Forbes got to “hard work” as he ran through his litany of “American values,” a heckler, in an obvious barb at Forbes’ privileged upbringing, shouted: “Hard work?” eliciting more laughter.

But Forbes seemed largely unflustered by the taunts during an appearance that sometimes resembled a session of the British Parliament. If anything, it seemed to add a bit of spontaneity and humor to stump performances sometimes characterized as robotic.

“One hundred sixty years ago, Alexis de Tocqueville came to America,” Forbes said at one point. Then, as the students applauded in recognition of the famous French commentator, Forbes added a jibe at Buchanan: “I know one of my competitors doesn’t like foreigners coming to America.”

Brownstein reported from Albany, Sipchen from New Haven. Also contributing to this story were Times staff writers Elizabeth Shogren and Edith Stanley in Georgia and John Balzar in Los Angeles.

* YANKEE PRIMARY: Dole is favored; moderate voters hostile to Buchanan. A4

* RELATED STORIES: A5