Buchanan Backers Offer Comfort, Dismay to GOP

Jim Doyle is the kind of unabashed Patrick J. Buchanan supporter who wears “Go-Pat-Go” T-shirts, spends his free time working the phones to urge neighbors to vote for his candidate and--without hesitation--declares: “He says everything I think.”

But, as a former supporter of George C. Wallace, Doyle has no question about whether Buchanan should run as an independent or third-party candidate if Sen. Bob Dole wins the Republican nomination, as now seems probable.

“I think a third party is a futile exercise,” said Doyle, an aircraft mechanic from Conroe, Texas, who cheered Buchanan’s speech in Dallas last weekend. “And I’ve been at this for 30 years.”

Doyle’s words are music to the ears of GOP leaders worried that the frequently bitter battle of words between Buchanan and Dole, the party’s presumptive nominee, could split the Republican coalition this fall and help reelect President Clinton.

Polls and conversations with dozens of Buchanan voters over the last week suggest that Doyle is in the majority. Despite the speculation about Buchanan leading a mass walkout, most of his supporters seem likely to support the party’s choice against Clinton this fall.

“I’m an ABC: Against Bill Clinton, above everything else,” says George Bougher, a psychotherapist from Memphis supporting Buchanan in today’s Tennessee primary. “I’ve had a burning spot in my stomach ever since Clinton put his hand on that Bible.”

There is, however, a significant minority of Buchanan voters who appears less firmly grounded in the GOP--indeed, in any form of political allegiance beyond their attraction to the pugnacious conservative columnist. These voters, many of them economically squeezed and culturally conservative working-class whites, don’t fit easily into either party. Unattached and disaffected, they could be a vital swing vote in the November election.

Volatile Voters

“These voters are very volatile and untethered,” says Ruy Teixeira, director of the public opinion program at the Economic Policy Institute in Washington. “Many of them are being driven by anxiety about living standards; they don’t see any solutions on the horizon, and they can be corralled by Democrats, Republicans or even a third party, depending on who can convince them they have an understanding of their problems, and some idea what to do about it.”

In an interview with The Times Monday, Buchanan said he’s in the race for the long haul because he believes he can help reorient the GOP more toward these economically populist, socially conservative voters.

Wearing a short-sleeve shirt and a colorful American flag tie, Buchanan said: “If the Republicans would only open the doors, these [blue-collar] people are our natural allies. . . . Go for the broad majority of Americans. We don’t want to throw this entire half of the country on a trash heap and say, ‘Look, these folks just can’t hack it in our third-wave future.’ ”

Through the early primaries, Buchanan has drawn his votes from several distinct sources. Each of these groups presents different challenges for Republican strategists looking toward November.

Through the early states, the foundation of Buchanan’s support has been cultural conservatives who identify with the religious right. Those voters have typically provided about half of Buchanan’s primary votes--somewhat more in the South, less in the Northeast.

Religious conservatives have become among the most loyal Republican voters in the electorate, and Dole advisors are confident they can woo them back into the fold for the fall--especially since Dole has run almost evenly with Buchanan among these voters in the most recent contests. “Bob Dole is acceptable to these people, and when the choice is Bob Dole or Bill Clinton, they will come back,” says Warren Tompkins, Dole’s chief strategist for the South.

That reconciliation process could still face some complications. Buchanan has declared he will give Dole “the fight of his life” at the GOP convention if Dole’s forces seek to dilute the uncompromising antiabortion plank in the Republican platform--or if Dole seeks to nominate a running mate who supports abortion rights, such as Colin L. Powell.

In his militant opposition to Powell, Buchanan reflects the views of some of his followers. “If [Dole] picks Colin Powell, I won’t vote for him,” Mark Webb, a 38-year-old truck driver in Tulsa, says flatly.

But absent an independent candidacy from Buchanan or some other antiabortion candidate, it is unclear where religious conservatives dissatisfied with Dole could move in November. Not only Clinton, but also Ross Perot--who continues his efforts to form a third party--supports abortion rights.

Likewise, the Buchanan voters who describe themselves as “very conservative”--a significant group that overlaps, but extends beyond, the religious right--are unlikely to leave the GOP in large numbers, analysts in both parties agree.

Economic Nationalists

Potentially more volatile are voters drawn to Buchanan primarily for his economic nationalism and bristling critique of American corporations. In many states, Buchanan has made a strong economic appeal to white voters without college educations, and a significant fraction of them have responded. About three-fifths of Buchanan supporters have been whites without college degrees--a group that has faced substantial downward pressure on its wages since the 1970s.

In recent years, these voters have been the most fluid and unpredictable in the electorate. Between 1988 and 1992, they abandoned Bush in droves, providing much of the support for Perot’s independent presidential campaign; in 1994, their surge toward the GOP was critical to the Republican takeover of Congress.

“This is a fairly Republican segment of the electorate right now, but only out of default,” says Democratic pollster Stanley B. Greenberg, who has extensively studied working-class white voters. “Essentially, they think that nobody is responding to their needs--nobody gets it.”

Few of Buchanan’s supporters--either antiabortion activists, working-class whites or ideological conservatives--express much enthusiasm about Dole. But almost all of them are hostile toward Clinton--which suggests that, in a two-way race, they are likely to either support Dole, or stay home.

“We’re all going to get behind [Dole],” says Vince Thompson, a 26-year-old account manager for a medical sales company in Memphis. We’re just having a little fun now.”

If Perot were to run again, however, Dole would have a potential problem with some Buchanan supporters. A Wall Street Journal/NBC poll this week found that about one-fifth of Buchanan voters said they would back Perot if he ran this fall. But that figure was slightly lower than the percentage of Steve Forbes supporters (generally a more affluent, better-educated group) who said they would defect to Perot.

Though Buchanan and Perot stand shoulder to shoulder on trade issues, at Buchanan rallies many express skepticism about the mercurial Texas billionaire.

“I voted for Perot in 1992 holding my nose. It was more a way of saying, ‘A pox on both the parties,’ ” said Bradley Anderson, 32, a surgeon who attended a Buchanan rally in Oklahoma City on Monday night. Anderson added that he views Perot as “kind of a cartoon character.”

One large unanswered question for the Dole campaign is whether winning back Buchanan’s voters depends on having good relations with Buchanan himself. Dole has tried to address some concerns of Buchanan’s supporters, calling for a “modest, temporary” reduction in legal immigration and sounding more hawkish notes on trade.

In an interview last week, Dole talked about Buchanan’s objections to the North American Free Trade Agreement. “I think we have to address those things,” Dole said. “We can’t just turn our back and say those people [worried about this] are Buchanan people. I think most of them are good, conservative, common-sense people who are somehow attracted to that message.”

At the same time, though, Dole and his aides plainly hope that Buchanan’s interest in retaining influence inside the GOP will impel him to avoid a total breach. Much will depend, Dole says, on whether Buchanan “wants to try this again in four years.”

But Buchanan has frustrated Dole by refusing to unequivocally shut the door on a third-party bid this fall.

Most often Buchanan discounts the possibility. “If I thought a third party was the way to go, I would have done it to begin with,” he said Sunday night.

But, at regular junctures, he pointedly leaves the door ajar. That may be only an effort to increase his leverage over the platform and choice of a running mate. But Buchanan’s tendency to talk about his followers as a movement distinct from the GOP encourages some of them in the hope that he will ultimately split off and run as an independent.

“If I could talk to Buchanan personally, I would tell him to drop the Republicans like a hot potato,” said Stan Brown, 42, a professor of physiology at the University of Mississippi, who drove 1 1/2 hours to see the candidate in Memphis. “The other Republicans are just not believable. I really think Buchanan would go after the establishment. The problem with Dole is that he’s an empty suit.”

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CAMPAIGN TRAIL

STEVE FORBES

Jack Kemp disappeared from the candidate’s entourage Monday after he helped fuel speculation that Forbes is looking for a way to soon exit the race.

“I’m in it for the duration,” Forbes insisted Monday as he campaigned in Florida. “Anyone who makes any remarks otherwise is not speaking with my authorization and is hereby totally 100% repudiated.”

Kemp had said Sunday he would be willing to act as “a bridge” between Forbes and GOP front-runner Bob Dole.

Kemp had planned to campaign with Forbes in Florida; instead, he returned to Washington. In Washington, House Speaker Newt Gingrich warned Forbes and Patrick J. Buchanan that the longer they stay in the race, the more their political influence will wane. “The fact is, this is now a Bob Dole team,” Gingrich told reporters.

And New Jersey Gov. Christine Todd Whitman, a friend of Forbes’ since childhood, called to encourage him to quit. Forbes said he was “very grateful for her advice” and made clear he rejected it.

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BOB DOLE

Dole is getting advice on potential running mates.

Sen. Alfonse M. D’Amato of New York, said Dole should pick Colin L. Powell and scoffed at the prospect that Powell’s support for abortion rights would drive away Buchanan backers.

“Maybe he’ll walk,” D’Amato said of Buchanan. “I don’t think many people will walk with him.”

Gingrich, meanwhile, suggested Dole consider Gov. John Engler of Michigan or California Atty. Gen. Dan Lungren, both of whom oppose abortion.

Dole told reporters that he hadn’t begun to think about running mates.

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PATRICK J. BUCHANAN

Buchanan, campaigning in Oklahoma, warned supporters to expect “rough going” in today’s voting. But he added: “We’re going forward because I represent a cause and the people who are behind me want me to represent that cause in the Republican convention.”

Compiled from Times’ staff and wire reports