Race Baffles Political Oddsmakers

The only certainty about the crowded race to fill the seat vacated by the disgraced former congressman, Walter R. Tucker III, is this: No one has a clue about how it will play out.

Different candidates paint different scenarios about the eventual outcome of the primary election set for March 26, but the fast pace and huge field of this campaign makes even identifying a front-runner little more than guesswork.

Adding to the confusing dynamics are some unusual structural factors. They include two different ballots for the Tucker seat--one to see who will fill out the remaining nine months of his term, the other to see who will be on the November ballot--and a first-ever March primary that is certain to lighten turnout in a congressional district already known for voter apathy.

Further, it pits a number of well-known African American candidates against one another in this free-for-all, setting up a scenario in which an obscure Latina--but the only one on the ballot--could conceivably put together enough votes to pull off a victory in the Democratic primary.

And if she were to do that, it would be tantamount to winning a seat in the House of Representatives because the 37th District is so overwhelmingly Democratic.

“No one has a clue about what is going on in that race,” said Cynthia McLain-Hill, a Los Angeles lawyer and longtime observer of the political scene in central Los Angeles. “The wild card, of course, is the Hispanic candidate.”

The Latina candidate is M. Susan Carrillo, a member of the Water Replenishment District of Southern California. Aside from that little-known elective office, she has no political experience. But she believes she can win if she can put together a coalition of various ethnic communities, including the Asian and Samoan pockets of the district.

“The only obstacle will be apathy,” she said.

There is a great deal of that in the district, as witnessed by poor voter registration and past turnout. And there are also large numbers of illegal immigrants included in the Latino community who would have no direct bearing on the election. Latinos make up 45% of the population in the district while 33% are African Americans. But African Americans make up an estimated 55% of the registered voters while Latinos account for only 16% of those who can vote.

The more traditional view of the district is that, as has been the case for many years, an African American will win the seat. Five elected officials, all African American, lead the list of candidates. They include two members of the state Assembly--Willard H. Murray Jr. (D-Paramount) and Juanita M. McDonald (D-Carson); two mayors--Omar Bradley of Compton and Paul H. Richards of Lynwood, with longtime Compton City Clerk Charles Davis rounding out the field of elected officials.

Candidates also include Tucker’s wife, Robin, who announced her intention to run after her husband was convicted on federal extortion and tax evasion charges in December, saying at the time that God had instructed her to do so.

Also on the ballot are Dale C. Tatum, a college professor; Joyce Harris, a retired corporate manager; Robert M. Sausedo, a health service salesman and civic activist, and Lt. Murry J. Carter of the county Sheriff’s Department.

Despite the crowded and diverse field, the common wisdom is that an African American will prevail.

“The winner in this race is going to be an African American,” said Kerman Maddox, a former political consultant with strong ties to the district.

The two seemingly strongest candidates--and the ones Maddox believes will be in a runoff for a spot on the November ballot--are Murray and McDonald. Both have high name recognition and are veteran campaigners.

Murray, who must leave the Assembly because of term limits, touted himself as the lead candidate to a point of near-arrogance.

“I am the front-runner,” he declared in a recent interview. “I can’t make any distinction among the other candidates who are elected officials.”

McDonald, in reply, said Murray’s bombast is off target. “I am the person to be reckoned with. I am up there in the front,” McDonald said.

Predictably, that kind of talk does not set well with those “other” officials, including Bradley, the Compton mayor. He said this week that Murray, for all his vaunted expertise at garnering support through selective slate mailings, had little reason to be self-assured.

He said Murray alienated a large bloc of voters in Compton by his support of a proposed prison there and the state’s controversial takeover of the Compton public school system.

Bradley also said he had been able to distribute more than 700 yard signs in Carson--McDonald’s base of support--which he said was a measure of her weakness there.

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Meanwhile, the Latino question remains, if not at the forefront, then certainly lingering in the background. One thing that has given Carrillo’s race a bit more credibility is the involvement of Ken Orduna, a longtime political consultant with electoral victories under his belt.

He said he thought the expected low voter turnout, the March election date and the crowded field should work in his candidate’s favor.

“People can laugh, but I don’t think they are going to be laughing on the 27th of March,” he said.