Confidence Is Up, but Politicians’ Popularity Is Not

Californians are increasingly confident in the state’s rebounding economy, but their sentiment has yet to translate into higher popularity for Gov. Pete Wilson or the state Legislature, a new Los Angeles Times poll has found.

Both Wilson and the Legislature remain mired in highly negative ratings, the survey determined.

Only 36% of Californians approve of the way Wilson has handled his job, statistically about the same as his 33% standing last September. Both readings were well below Wilson’s ranking last March, which suggests that the governor is still paying the price for his abysmally unsuccessful bid for the presidency.

The Legislature’s job approval rating was slightly lower than Wilson’s, at 31%, and only a jot higher than the 29% approval it registered last September.

Further, Californians seem unimpressed at this point by Assembly Republicans, who took control of the lower house earlier this year. About a quarter of Californians say that GOP control of the Assembly is a good thing, and almost as many say it is not, with many people asserting that the Republicans’ ascension does not matter.

The poll also showed that Democrats have improved their standing as the party best able to handle California’s problems, a good sign for President Clinton’s chances of winning the state for a second time.

Thirty-eight percent of Californians said they trusted Democrats with California’s problems, a hike from the 33% level measured in September and 30% a year ago. In that same time frame, Republicans have fallen from being the choice of 41% to the current 36%.

The unambivalent economic findings marked the latest in what has been a very slow but undeniably steady improvement in public confidence in the state’s financial future. While most people still believe that the state is on the wrong track, the growing confidence bodes well for future developments, according to Susan Pinkus, acting director of The Times Poll.

“Californians seem to be feeling better about the state’s economy, and that is good for California,” Pinkus said, “because even if forecasters say the economy is improving, people have to start believing it themselves in order to start spending money.”

The Times Poll surveyed 1,337 Californians by telephone March 13-17. The margin of sampling error is 3 percentage points in either direction. The margin for smaller sub-groups is larger.

The uptick in economic confidence could be seen from a host of questions. For example, asked whether the state was in a recession--and, if so, if it was serious--27% of Californians said there was no recession.

Last September, that figure was 22%. The percentage of people saying that the state is not in a recession has steadily climbed from the most recent low point of 11% in September 1994.

A similar trend was seen among those who said California was suffering a serious recession. Twenty-three percent believed that in this poll, down from 29% last September. That number has been falling steadily since peaking at 60% in March 1993.

Another traditional arbiter of confidence was up as well. Almost a third of Californians said that the state was headed in the right direction, while 53% said things were on the wrong track, improvements from the 27%-64% ratio in June 1995, the last time the question was asked.

Looking to the future, the change was consistent. Asked whether the California economy will be better or worse in three months, 22% said better, up from 18% in September. The change was more noticeable among those who said it will be worse--only 11% this time, about half the percentage who felt that way back in September.

Confidence is hardly overweening, however. Asked whether they expected that someone in their household would be laid off in the next year, a small but substantial 21% said they believed it was likely. Nearly three-quarters, however, said a layoff was unlikely.

Despite their renewed confidence in the economy, Californians were either uncertain or loath to give politicians credit for helping things along. Asked who should get credit for economic improvements, 20% said no one and another 20% said they were not sure.

The rest of the answers were multiply split. Fifteen percent gave credit to the Democrats in the Legislature, for example, and 14% gave it to Republican Wilson. Another 12% gave credit to Democratic President Clinton, and 11% credited the Republicans in the Legislature.

Wilson’s job approval rating remained relatively stagnant among all but his most loyal fans, registered Republicans, whose approval rose to 59% from 53% in September, when emotions were running high against his presidential bid.

The governor’s proposed 15% tax cut also came up on the short side, with 40% favoring it but a majority, 52%, opposing it. Just Tuesday, the governor called the tax cut “the most significant act the Legislature can take this year” and said that without it, California would become a “job-killing machine.” Last year, the measure was passed by the Assembly but tabled by the Democratic-controlled Senate.

The Legislature’s job rating appeared to be affected by the Republican takeover of the Assembly. While the overall numbers changed little from September to March, they slumped somewhat for Democrats and independents and rose, from 27% to 38%, among Republicans.

That did not suggest a broad embrace of the behavior of the new Assembly, however.

Even among Republicans, only 19% said they “strongly” approved of the GOP agenda in the Assembly. Another 49% approved somewhat and 32% either did not approve or were unsure. Among politically influential independents, only 32% approved--and Democrats, predictably, overwhelmingly disapproved.

On a matter of importance to Republicans, however, Californians exhibited a conservative streak. Almost half said they thought that legal immigration should be decreased, with a paltry 9% calling for increases in the numbers of immigrants processed at the border. Even among Latinos, who make up the largest pool of immigrants into California, 37% said legal immigration should be slowed.

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How Californians Feel

Californians are more optimistic about the economy than they have been for several years. Among adults in the state, Gov. Pete Wilson and the California Legislature are still unpopular, and are not being given credit for the upswing in the state’s economy.

JOB APPROVAL RATINGS (Now)

Gov. Pete Wilson

Approve: 36%

Disapprove: 56%

*

State Legislature

Approve: 31%

Disapprove: 48%

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THE ECONOMY

Three months from now, do you expect California’s economy will be better than now, worse than now or about the same as now?

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Now 9/95 3/95 3/94 3/93 9/92 Better 22% 18% 21% 22% 16% 13% Worse 11% 21% 17% 17% 31% 28% Same 60% 59% 59% 59% 51% 55% Don’t know 7% 2% 3% 2% 2% 4%

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Source: The Los Angeles Times Poll

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How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 1,337 California adults by telephone between March 13 and March 17. Interviewing was conducted in English and Spanish. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that both listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, region and registration. The margin of sampling error for the total sample and all registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.