Clerk Predicts Light Voting in ‘Flop’ Primary

Calling the state’s experimental March primary “a flop,” Ventura County Clerk Richard D. Dean predicted that fewer than half of the county’s voters would bother to cast ballots in Tuesday’s primary election.

But county officials have issued a record 66,000 absentee ballots for this election, suggesting that as much as a third of those who participate in the election will cast their votes by mail.

The Legislature moved the state’s traditional June primary to March 26, hoping to give Californians more clout in presidential contests--and foster more voter enthusiasm.

Given that President Clinton and Sen. Bob Dole have already clinched their parties’ nominations, Dean forecast that 45% to 48% of the county’s 358,938 registered voters would participate.

“Generally, it has been a flop,” Dean said of the early primary. “Most experts in the field would leave it where it was.”

Dean’s turnout prediction was far more optimistic than others. Secretary of State Bill Jones, for instance, forecast on Friday that 42% of voters statewide would cast ballots.

Dean acknowledged that Ventura County’s turnout usually falls slightly lower than the statewide average. But he defended his guesswork, calling Jones’ forecast “too low.”

“Primarily we look at past history,” he said. “The past three primary elections have been hovering around 45% [turnout].”

He did not figure that Bob Dole’s lock of the Republican nomination would make any difference in Tuesday’s turnout.

He said California voters are used to casting ballots after the excitement has been bled from the presidential contests.

This election’s record number of absentee ballots follows a two-decade trend toward voting by mail, election officials said. A growing number of voters prefer to punch their ballot cards at their leisure at home, rather than squeeze in a few minutes on election day to make it to the polls.

In addition, more savvy campaigns offer to help voters request absentee ballots, thus enabling the campaigns to build a list of sure-bet voters to woo.

Community Memorial Hospital, for example, sent out tens of thousands of such requests in its campaign to derail the proposed $56-million outpatient center of a nearby rival hospital, the Ventura County Medical Center.

Those voters who responded to Community Memorial’s request have been deluged with political mailers highly critical of the medical center’s project.

Although absentee voting is convenient for voters and campaigns, it creates some problems for county election officials.

So far, county elections chief Bruce Bradley said, voters have returned less than half of the absentee ballots. His staff has kept up with the pace so far, verifying signatures and preparing these ballots for the computer’s high-speed count on election night.

But Bradley anticipates a crush of ballots by mail Monday and Tuesday, with thousands more dropped off at polling places.

Altogether, he expects 21,000 absentee ballots to remain uncounted on election night. It will take his staff another week to finish the chore.

Such a large number of uncounted votes could alter the outcomes of tight races, election officials said.

They cautioned candidates from declaring victory or defeat too early.