Exit Poll Points to Easy Dole Win

Primary day 1996 was supposed to be when Californians decided the Republican nomination contest, but instead, Tuesday’s voting meant only ratifying Bob Dole’s nomination and deciding contests closer to home, like the name-calling brawl between business and lawyers over ballot propositions.

To no one’s surprise, Dole appeared headed to an easy victory, according to results of a Los Angeles Times exit poll of Tuesday’s voters. Even before the voting, Dole had the support of enough delegates to guarantee him the nomination, but until Tuesday he had avoided formally claiming victory.

At least two propositions aimed at changing the state’s rules on lawsuits--one that would set up a no-fault auto insurance system and a second that would change the rules for securities suits--also appeared headed for defeat. A third proposition, which would put limits on attorney fees, was in a closer race.

“I’m so confident I’m going to declare right now that I’m the Republican nominee,” Dole told supporters gathered at a Washington hotel.

The fact that Dole waited until California’s vote to claim victory was of little consolation to the state, which has watched its primary-election influence wane for years.

Things were supposed to change this time. State leaders advanced the California primary election from June to March, only to be leapfrogged by other states seeking to enhance their influence.

Surely as a result, turnout Tuesday appeared headed to near-record low levels for a presidential primary. Before the voting, the Secretary of State projected the turnout would be barely 42% of those registered, leaving hundreds of other issues and candidates in the hands of the smallest slice of the electorate in state presidential primary history.

Dole himself campaigned here only three days and scheduled his victory celebrations not in California, but in the nation’s capital.

Meanwhile, Republican National Committee Chairman Haley Barbour at last dropped his guise of official neutrality and declared Dole the nominee.

“From this point, we will treat Sen. Dole as the party nominee for president. We will begin to coordinate activities with the Dole presidential campaign to the extent allowed by law,” he said in an interview.

The party’s help will be crucial because Dole is approaching the legal limit on how much he can spend prior to August’s GOP convention.

As has become California’s trademark for more than two decades, the statewide ballot offered a lively exercise in direct democracy. Voters faced an even dozen propositions, half of them the result of voter petition drives, all laden with emotion.

Three initiatives in particular arose from perceived discontent with the system of civil lawsuits and lawyers. But the propositions threatened to backfire and prove that attorneys are not the easy targets some might guess.

Proposition 200 would dramatically change the business of automobile insurance and virtually end lawsuits over accidents--instituting a system of mandatory “no-fault” car insurance for all drivers.

Propositions 201 and 202 were even more directly aimed at lawyers, with strong backing from business interests. A costly advertising campaign forced Californians into a stark choice: Who is acting in the interest of citizens--attorneys or business?

Proposition 201 would limit, perhaps sharply, lawsuits over business securities disputes. Proposition 202 would impose ceilings on attorney contingency awards in damage suits and add a disincentive to refuse out-of-court settlements.

More than $20 million was believed spent on the three propositions, which also split California’s consumer activist movement.

Also on Tuesday’s statewide ballot was Proposition 197, which divided hunters from animal protectionists over the issue of whether to repeal the protected status of the mountain lion. And a politics-related initiative, Proposition 198, would further diminish the influence of political parties in California by opening partisan primary elections to all voters.

Other ballot propositions asked approval of $3 billion in construction bonds for schools and $2 billion to strengthen roads and bridges against earthquakes. The final ballot propositions would add carjacking and murder of jurors to California’s list of death penalty offenses, phase out rent controls for mobile home parks and ease taxes on property passed from grandparent to grandchild.

In the Democratic race, Bill Clinton long ago secured his renomination and faced opposition only from perennial candidate and former prison inmate Lyndon LaRouche.

In Los Angeles County, Dist. Atty. Gil Garcetti, surely America’s best known district attorney as a result of the O.J. Simpson trial, was seeking reelection against two of his deputies and three other challengers.

Elsewhere in county, city and district voting for candidates, Californians felt the consequences of an earlier ballot initiative they approved: term limits.

The 1996 elections were the first where the full weight of restrictions on tenure in the state Legislature take effect, meaning a shuffle of old names in state politics and an infusion of new faces.

Particular interest has grown over the election prospects of Assemblyman Scott Baugh (R-Huntington Beach), who was indicted last week on charges of 1995 election shenanigans. Baugh’s election last November finally tipped the balance of power in the state Assembly, giving Republicans a one-vote majority. On Tuesday, he faced a pair of challengers as well as the cloud of accusations.

In congressional races, two veterans, one Democrat and one Republican, have decided to retire, opening the way for lively nomination battles.

Six Democrats and three Republicans vied to replace Rep. Anthony C. Beilenson (D-Woodland Hills) in a district that has grown increasingly conservative. Assemblyman James Rogan (R-Glendale) was the favorite to win the GOP nomination to replace Rep. Carlos Moorhead (R-Glendale), while a pair of Democrats competed for the chance to try for a November upset in this once-safe Republican region.