PERSPECTIVE ON POLITICS : Queasy on Clinton, Voters Want Dole’s Home Cooking : Republicans knew what they were doing in choosing a solid leader to challenge a president who is beatable.

Twenty years ago this July, the Republican Party nominated Sen. Bob Dole as its vice presidential candidate. At first, he and President Gerald Ford trailed the Carter-Mondale ticket by 30 points in the polls. On election day, those polls were dead even. Dole’s first effort at national office was lost ever so narrowly. Now, having overwhelmingly won the GOP primaries, Dole can formally begin the job of defeating Bill Clinton, a task that conventional wisdom views as almost as challenging as the one he faced 20 years ago.

But I believe that conventional wisdom substantially misperceives the race. As chairman of the Ford-Dole campaign in 1976 and as a Cabinet officer who worked closely with Dole during his 12 years as Senate leader, I am well aware of Dole’s political acumen, leadership abilities, experience and Midwestern common sense.

Clinton is eminently beatable. He suffers from a “foundational” problem that transcends any particular policy shortcoming: He is not trusted by broad segments of the American electorate. Between 30% and 40% of the voters hold a negative view of him on the issue of character.

Yes, Clinton is a skilled and resourceful politician; and yes, Dole enters this race as the underdog. But the pundits are underestimating Dole’s prospects.

There are three truths to keep in mind.

Truth No. 1: The immediate post-primary period is the lowest for the party out of power. Think back to where the Democrats were at this time in 1992. It should not be surprising that Clinton is ahead of Dole in national surveys at this point because the aftermath of a messy primary campaign is typically the low point for the party out of power. More negative ads have been run against Dole by virtue of his front-runner status than against anyone else. It normally takes several months for the effects of a sharp-elbowed primary competition to fade. The 1996 general election is seven months away.

Truth No. 2: Dole is perfectly positioned to inherit the natural Republican base vote. Any Republican, any right-of-center independent and any conservative Democrat who felt comfortable with Reagan or Bush will feel comfortable with Dole. There is nothing about his policies or personality that will turn off the Republican base.

Truth No. 3: The electoral college works very much in Dole’s favor. In 1992, Clinton carried only four Southern states, two of them being his home state and his running mate’s. In 1996, only Arkansas can be placed safely in the Clinton column. The mountain and the plains states look as Republican as the South, and only much of the Northeast and the Pacific Northwest currently appear to be in Clinton’s corner.

There are three unknowns that won’t be resolved until the end of summer.

Unknown No. 1: The Buchanan factor. By convention week in August, Pat Buchanan will be struggling against irrelevance and will be tempted to place greater demands on Dole, threatening to bolt the party if they are not met. Should Dole accommodate Buchanan’s demands and risk antagonizing voters or should he ignore those demands and risk antagonizing Buchanan’s supporters? Dole has considerable latitude on this question. The Republican Party will be united behind him. And Buchanan is not going to mount an independent or third party run; he wants to try again as a Republican in 2000.

Unknown No. 2: The matter of Dole’s running mate. Colin Powell would be a superb vice president, and if the position were offered, my guess is he would take it, knowing that historically it is the surest way to become president. However, Dole has wide latitude here as well. There is no shortage of talented officials, many from battleground electoral vote states, who would ably fill the role.

Unknown No. 3: This question could well be the difference between victory and defeat: Will there be an independent or a third-party candidate? Republicans are the party out of power in the race for the White House. We have to be viewed as the alternative to Clinton in order to make the contest a referendum on his incumbency.

We know that there will be any number of minor and fringe candidates on the ballot this fall, so the issue really is whether there will be a candidate with the political stature or the financial resources to affect the outcome. There has been speculation about Bill Bradley, Paul Tsongas, Lowell Weicker or Buchanan mounting an independent challenge. I believe it is unrealistic to think that any of these individuals would try to compete in this way. The prospect of victory for a third-party candidate is so remote that conventional politicians typically are deterred from running, leaving the field to “crusaders”--people unlikely to be successful.

Thus, Unknown No. 3 really boils down to this question: Will H. Ross Perot run? Whatever one thinks of Perot and his platform, his candidacy would be an enormous boon to Clinton by splitting the opposition.

Unfortunately, Perot appears to be gearing up for another run. He can well afford to spend his personal millions, and playing a spoiler role won’t faze him any more in 1996 than it did in 1992. But this year, Perot would receive far tougher treatment both from the press and from his campaign opponents. He will therefore get less of the total popular vote than the 19% he got in 1992, and, as in 1992, will not win the electoral votes of any state.

In the end, the vote for president is usually a referendum on the incumbent and the job he is doing. Do you like the incumbent enough to renew his lease? Or can we do better? Dole is action; Clinton is words. Dole is solid, conservative and committed to reducing spending, lowering taxes and reforming welfare. Clinton is forever changing his positions, liberal and has vetoed bills to reduce spending, lower taxes and reform welfare. Dole is meat and potatoes; Clinton is designer cuisine. Contrary to conventional wisdom, my bet is that after four years, the voters have a bit of an upset stomach and will order some good, solid home cooking.