Vote May Have Thrown Kims’ Rivalry Off Balance

In the realm of politics, South Korean President Kim Young Sam and opposition leader Kim Dae Jung have long been known as black belts--the highest martial arts level.

Through decades of fighting for democracy against military regimes--sometimes as partners but often as rivals--they met numerous defeats. Yet nothing could keep either man down for long.

In the wake of his party’s poorer-than-expected showing in legislative elections Thursday, Kim Dae Jung, 72, is down again. Media commentaries reflect a widespread feeling that his long quest for the presidency may be over. An opinion poll published Saturday reported that 61% of respondents said he should retire rather than run in next year’s election for President Kim’s successor.

It is clear that in the long rivalry between the two men, President Kim--whose party lost its legislative majority but did better than expected--won this round.

But those close to Kim Dae Jung predict he will bounce back and mount a bid for the presidency against whatever candidate the president--constitutionally barred from a second term--chooses to support.

It is “undeniable” that the public suddenly doubts whether Kim Dae Jung will run next year, said Ra Jong Yil, a professor of political science at Kyung Hee University and special assistant to the opposition leader. “But that doesn’t necessarily mean it is more unlikely. For one thing, there is no visible alternative other than Kim Dae Jung.

“My feeling after having a conversation with him about the election is he was very resilient. He was fast recovering from the shock he sustained. I do not believe he will easily be retiring from politics or giving up his ambition to run for president next year.”

President Kim’s New Korea Party took 139 seats in the 299-seat National Assembly, while Kim Dae Jung’s National Congress for New Politics took 79. The National Congress had expected to win at least 90 seats and had hoped for 100, so the results were seen as a sharp setback for the party.

National Congress Vice President Kim Keun Tae, a onetime dissident who won a legislative seat Thursday, acknowledged that the election results throw up fresh obstacles for Kim Dae Jung.

“However, we have 1 1/2 years before the presidential election,” he said. “During that time, inevitably we will see the arrogance of Kim Young Sam and the ruling party. We will see faults and failures of policymaking in this government. Through that, Kim Dae Jung can get a chance again.”

Ra said: “Korean politics is full of drama, changes, shocks. No one can predict now what will happen.”

While President Kim is expected to put together a working majority in the National Assembly, the opposition is collectively strong enough that it might be able to cause him a lot of trouble.

If the National Congress and the United Liberal Democrats--who won 50 seats last week--work together, they could strike at the president by pushing an inquiry into the financing of his successful 1992 campaign, in which the ruling party is widely suspected of having exceeded legal spending limits.

While Kim Dae Jung is clearly motivated by ambition, it is equally clear, from his long record fighting for democracy, that he is also driven by ideals. A desire to put his policy prescriptions into practice may also motivate him to make one last drive for the nation’s top office.

“I have long insisted on the realization of mass participatory democracy,” he has said when asked what he would want to accomplish as president. “We want to support the rights of middle-class and common people. . . . The middle class is the real base for stability and a sound social structure, which can produce real strength to overcome the North Korean challenge.

“In terms of North Korea, of course I strongly oppose communism. But I’m not afraid of North Korea. We should be much more confident. We should have relations with North Korea to realize peaceful cooperation and peaceful coexistence, which can be eventually linked to peaceful reunification.”

But Kim Dae Jung faces arguments that he can serve his ideals better by stepping aside and supporting younger politicians.

On Saturday, columnist Chang Myong Soo of the Hankook Ilbo newspaper called on both Kim Dae Jung and Kim Jong Pil, 70, the conservative leader of the United Liberal Democrats, to “sacrifice themselves for the development of Korean politics” by giving up presidential ambitions and promoting successors who can further entrench democracy. It is a sentiment widely shared among younger Koreans.

And the Joongang Ilbo newspaper, in an article headlined “Silent Kim Dae Jung at a Crossroads,” asserted that, because his party fared poorly in Seoul, and did well only in his native Cholla region, “he has completely become a regional party leader.”

“There is criticism mounting that Kim Dae Jung was in too much of a hurry to make this election a primary for the presidential election,” Joongang Ilbo said. “Kim Dae Jung has been saying he’ll decide whether to run for president after the election, and after watching people’s reactions, around the end of this year. But within the party there are some cautious remarks that it may be difficult for him to run again.”

Chi Jung Nam of The Times’ Seoul Bureau contributed to this report.