When Policy Is Politics, the Race Is Officially On

In a twist on Thomas P. (Tip) O’Neill Jr.’s famous axiom, “All politics is local,” the Clinton administration has a new election-year mantra: “All policy is politics.” If Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole and the Republicans think it’s been a rough year so far, they ain’t seen nothing yet. Clinton and his team are finally in campaign mode, and few do it better.

On the surface, it seems the Clinton campaign is getting off to a late start. Last week, Peter S. Knight, a skilled politician and close ally of Vice President Al Gore, was chosen as campaign manager, months after such an important job should have been filled. President Bill Clinton hasn’t even officially announced he’s running for reelection, and may not until the Democratic National Convention in August. State directors are just now being named, months after the norm.

But if you’re looking for the Clinton reelection campaign, look no farther than the current policy battling between the administration and the GOP-controlled Congress--and you will see the race for Clinton’s second term in full throttle.

Take last week’s ’96 budget agreement. For months the press, the pundits and even some Hill Democrats were urging Clinton to close a deal. After all, the differences in dollar terms were only about $3 billion. But Clinton resisted, not because getting a budget deal wasn’t good policy, it just wasn’t good politics, until now. For months, as Republicans howled, Clinton stayed on message.

Last winter, Clinton, in concluding a deal to reopen the federal government, stressed that any final budget had to protect Medicare, education, job training and the environment. The GOP, at the time, assumed this was pure rhetoric to cover caving in to Republican demands for a balanced budget in seven years. But Republicans were stressing dollars resolve while Clinton was stressing policy resolve (read: political resolve).

The president did give on some numbers, but refused to agree to GOP efforts to cut Medicare or gut programs for education, training and the environment. In the end, Clinton got what he wanted. Republicans did cut dollars but let programs stand, giving Clinton a clear victory. Polls show Clinton getting credit for holding off a full-scale assault on Medicare and the environment; if the Republicans did cut a few billion, so be it. That’s a good trade-off in any election year.

And then there is the minimum wage. The gods are smiling on the Clinton campaign. This was a policy debate that Clinton wasn’t looking for until congressional Democrats made it attractive. A policy debate that’s good politics? Count Clinton in. In a matter of days, Clinton embraced the increase and the GOP was pushed onto the defensive. By week’s end, Clinton stood as the champion of the working poor--including many angry white guys--and the Republicans became, once again, the lackeys of corporate America, using legislative tactics to avoid even voting on the minimum wage. Talk about a rout!

Poor old Dole. Though he is supposed to be strong in the well of the Senate, he spent the week fighting off a newly reinvigorated Democratic minority and a GOP majority increasingly wary of running with him. Not a pretty picture. Meanwhile, there was Clinton in Japan and Russia, every inch the world leader, avoiding controversy and, in the process, being virtually endorsed for reelection by U.S. allies. And this was supposed to be a weak foreign-policy president. Before campaign mode maybe, but now all the world’s a backdrop for Clinton-Gore ’96.

As for the supposedly weak link on Team Clinton, First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton: If the past few weeks are any indication, give me this bench player any time. No one knows better than Hillary Clinton that she has become a lightning rod. So like the good political pro she is, her game plan has shifted accordingly. No more sweeping, controversial policy issues like health-care reform; no more lines like stay at home and bake cookies; no more in-your-face defiance. Instead, she is seeking platforms that highlight her ample charm. The troops in Bosnia, U.S. soldiers’ children in Germany, promoting her best-seller about children, “It Takes a Village.” This is the stuff good campaigns are made of. Whitewater may still pose problems for Clinton and the first lady, particularly, but if that means a political fight between Sen. Alfonse M. D’Amato (R-N.Y.) and Hillary Clinton, I’ll take Hillary, and give you 5 to 1.

All this must be terribly frustrating for Dole and his team. He can take some comfort in the fact that running against an incumbent president, particularly in reasonably good economic times, is no piece of cake. I can sympathize, having run Walter F. Mondale’s campaign against the Reagan White House in 1984. Then, like now, the reelection campaign took maximum advantage of incumbency. Ronald Reagan stayed above the fray, worked the Rose Garden and the foreign stage to the hilt.

To be sure, the Dole people will be quick to say Clinton is no Reagan and Mondale is no Dole. Maybe, but the last time the Olympics were in the United States was in 1984--and the Reagan team made maximum use of this spectacular forum. The sound you will hear in July will be Air Force One revving up its engines for Atlanta ’96. Good luck!*