Report Says Airport Plans Off by 50%

Orange County’s plan for a commercial airport at the El Toro Marine Corps Air Base base should be scaled back by 50% because of an anticipated passenger demand smaller than previously projected and the limited approach routes aircraft could take, according to a report released recently.

The report, commissioned by the Southern California Assn. of Governments and written by an aviation expert who favors a civilian airport at the soon-to-be-closed base, noted that consultants hired by Orange County estimated in a recent report that 38 million passengers would be using a commercial airport there annually by 2020.

But the new report said a more realistic figure is between 18 million and 22 million passengers, said Tim Merwin, aviation program manager at the Southern California Assn. of Governments.

Although the SCAG report disagreed with some county projections, it nevertheless advocated a a commercial airport at El Toro, which is scheduled to close by 1999 as part of Defense Department cutbacks.

The county is studying plans to build a civilian airport on 2,000 acres of the 4,700-acre base; the rest of the land would be developed in a way compatible with an airport.

The report recommends that county officials “downsize” forecasts for passenger usage and for the airport’s capacity to handle instrument approaches.

Merwin said that county officials arrived at the higher figure by counting regional passengers who are more likely to use Los Angeles International Airport, which is expected to handle 98 million passengers by 2015.

In addition, the SCAG report said that instrument approaches to El Toro, where aircraft are guided in by air traffic controllers, are limited to half the number of approaches at comparable airports such as San Francisco International Airport. El Toro’s approach limitations stem from a number of factors, including noise restraints and the configuration of the four runways.

“These are two important factors. I suggested that they not go over their [instrument approach] capacity. And I think their passenger demand figures are higher because they are double-counting passengers who would normally fly out of LAX,” Merwin said. “Despite all of this, I still support a commercial airport at El Toro.”

John Wayne Airport spokeswoman Courtney Wiercioch said the county stood by the 38-million passenger projection and called other criticisms in the SCAG report “premature conclusions.”

“Frankly, we were surprised by their report. We had been communicating with the SCAG staff, and they never raised many of these concerns to us. We’re particularly surprised because SCAG has been a strong advocate of an airport [at El Toro],” Wiercioch said.

The report resulted from a request in April by Lake Forest city officials that SCAG review the county’s planning report, which precedes an environmental impact report due in the coming months. Lake Forest and Irvine city officials have been strong opponents of an airport at El Toro and have been battling the county, which believes a civilian airport at the Marine base would be a boost to the local economy.

Not surprisingly, South County opponents seized on the SCAG report to continue pressing their attack against the proposed airport.

“The first hand grenade has been thrown in the middle of the county’s planning process and has blown up the county’s efforts to build a second airport,” said Melody Carruth, a Laguna Hills councilwoman and airport opponent.

“I think this analysis by a reputable planning agency should wake the county up to the fact that their analysis is supported by flawed data,” Carruth said.