Affirmative Action Fades as GOP Issue in California

Affirmative action, which Republican strategists once touted as their key to victory in California, now appears to be dropping from the party’s campaign agenda.

Gov. Pete Wilson and other backers of an anti-affirmative action measure on the November ballot insist the issue will still generate a groundswell that will boost supporters like GOP presidential candidate Bob Dole.

But others aren’t so sure. Dole has all but completely stopped talking about the issue--part of what appears to be an attempt to move toward the political center in the last few days on an array of ideologically charged issues, including abortion, tax cuts and the record of the current Republican majority in Congress.

In a televised interview Monday, Dole recalled his past support for affirmative action. “I’ve been for affirmative action,” he said. “I think there are some changes that should be made.”

To at least some conservative activists, that comment seemed worrisomely similar to the “mend it, don’t end it” approach taken by President Clinton. In contrast, during the primaries, Dole heartily endorsed the California ballot measure, called the California Civil Rights Initiative by its backers, and introduced similar legislation in the U.S. Senate.

Strategists on both sides of the issue are eyeing Dole’s next trip to California--scheduled to begin Monday--for indications of how the presumptive nominee will handle the issue in the future.

Last January, Republican strategists poured money and effort into getting the initiative onto the ballot. The state Republican Party gave initiative backers a whopping $480,000 contribution at a time when the measure appeared in danger of not qualifying for the ballot.

At the time, Republicans argued that the initiative might do for their candidates in 1996 what Proposition 187, the controversial anti-illegal immigrant measure, did for Wilson’s reelection in 1994.

In contrast, in a recent interview, Republican National Committee Chairman Haley Barbour ticked off a long list of issues that he thought would help Dole in California. Affirmative action was conspicuously absent.

Asked about that absence, Barbour said: “I think the people of California . . . don’t have to have somebody from outside to make a big issue out of it.”

In March, when Dole came to California during the primaries and was still under some pressure from conservative rival Patrick J. Buchanan, he issued a hearty endorsement of the ballot measure at an event in Orange County’s Little Saigon.

But in June, when Dole visited the state again, former Gov. George Deukmejian, the honorary state chairman of Dole’s campaign, said, “I don’t think he should get much involved in” the affirmative action debate.

And Dole’s top California strategist, Ken Khachigian, now says, “It’s still too early to tell” how much Dole will discuss the issue. It is “a matter of emphasis,” he said.

Khachigian said he still believes that the California ballot measure, which has strong support in public opinion polls, will pass overwhelmingly and benefit Republicans. He also said Dole has not shaken in his support of the ballot measure.

“I don’t want to indicate any lukewarm attitude toward it--special preferences are outrageous,” Khachigian said. “But if the framing of the debate over CCRI makes it sound negative to support it, then it could affect the matter in which it is embraced or not embraced.”

Democrats are quick to gibe that Dole is making up his positions based on the polls. White House senior advisor George Stephanopoulos, having learned that The Times was preparing a story on Dole’s stance on the issue, called to volunteer the observation that “they are making political calculations, not moral and legal calculations.”

Supporters of the initiative, however, say Dole has little choice but to continue his support of it.

“Whether he likes it or not, this issue is already around his neck,” said University of California regent Ward Connerly, director of the initiative campaign. “Whomever is the candidate needs this issue more than CCRI needs that individual.”

But many conservative activists have become anxious. Lyn Nofziger, a friend and former advisor, recently wrote Dole a letter asking about rumors that he was backing away from his position.

Nofziger said he was encouraged when he received a brief personal letter from Dole on Wednesday that said that “the rumors you heard are not true. I am not backing away from offering my strong support to the California Civil Rights Initiative.”

But conservative jitters on the issue will not be calmed unless Dole once again speaks publicly on the issue, Nofziger said.

“If he’s not going to back away from it, he’s got to go out and campaign for it,” Nofziger said. “I think a failure to campaign for it would look like he’s backing away from it.”

Affirmative action is only one of a series of issues on which some Republican conservatives have begun to worry that Dole may abandon their agenda in a search for votes from the political center.

Earlier this week, Dole reignited conservative anger by siding with moderate Republicans who want to change a plank in the party’s platform against abortion. Dole also has moved away from proposals, widely floated by advisors, for across-the-board tax cuts. And he recently criticized the House GOP freshmen for creating “public anxiety” about Republican compassion.

Finally, some conservatives were upset by Dole’s farewell speech to the Senate on Tuesday, in which he provided a list of his proudest achievements that included helping to create the food stamp program and passage of the Americans with Disabilities Act, which many conservatives see as prime examples of big-government excess.

Earlier this week, conservatives were blaming Dole’s moves on his attempts to woo retired Gen. Colin L. Powell to be his running mate. In a recent speech, Powell sharply criticized the California ballot measure and stated strong support for affirmative action.

Tuesday, however, Dole told reporters that it was “very doubtful” that Powell would be on the Republican presidential ticket.

That makes more likely the possibility that Dole’s moves have been driven not by the desire to attract Powell, but by a broader strategic shift, following the advice that the late President Richard Nixon had given him: Run to the right to win the nomination and then “run as fast as you can back to the middle” to contest the general election.

That prospect has opened the way not only for Republican worries, but also for Democratic jabs.

“I guess the question now is, now that Gen. Powell has reiterated his intention not to run, will the Dole campaign switch again,” said Stephanopoulos, savoring the chance to toss back one of the Republicans’ favorite charges against Clinton. “It’s a character test.”