GIs May Stay in Bosnia Into ‘97, Perry Suggests

The Clinton administration signaled Wednesday that it would be willing to station U.S. combat forces in Bosnia-Herzegovina well into 1997--and possibly beyond--as part of a longer-term international force intended to prevent the civil war there from reigniting.

Defense Secretary William J. Perry told reporters that if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization decides to deploy a second military force in Bosnia after the current peacekeepers leave this winter, he will recommend that Washington participate fully, “including [deploying U.S.] ground troops.”

The White House immediately took steps to soften the impact of Perry’s statement, which raised the prospect of a much longer troop commitment than the administration had discussed publicly until now.

President Clinton told reporters that he believes “that we should stick with our timetable” and pull U.S. troops out of Bosnia beginning in December, formally ending the current peacekeeping mission there.

But officials also confirmed that Perry’s offer of U.S. troops for a new force is part of administration strategy too.

Perry and his staff have said they want NATO to begin planning soon for measures to ensure peace in Bosnia after the initial peacekeeping mission ends. The defense secretary’s statement was designed mainly to respond to European demands that the allies consider deploying a “follow-on” force, including U.S. units, a Pentagon official said.

But Clinton campaign aides say they want to avoid touching off a roiling national debate over how long U.S. troops should stay in Bosnia, especially since NATO has not even decided yet whether to deploy a new force after this year.

So the president in his public statements has held to a narrow definition of current policy: The troops will begin coming out in December.

Perry’s offer of new troops came amid mounting evidence that the effort to build a viable government in Bosnia is hobbled and that the government there might not be strong enough to prevent renewed warfare if Western military forces withdraw as planned.

Perry and other top officials continue to insist publicly that they do not expect the fighting to be renewed once NATO forces leave.

But George Kenney, a former State Department Bosnia expert, said in an interview, “I think everybody believes it would be likely.”

The allied governments are just beginning to discuss the subject of a follow-on force, with the Europeans pressuring the United States to contribute logistics support, intelligence, communications, air cover and even some ground troops.

The problem is a delicate one for Clinton.

Before the United States sent troops to Bosnia, the president and his top foreign policy officials promised Congress and the public that the mission would be over in “about a year”--in other words, by December.

“We have set one year as a deadline for withdrawal of these forces from Bosnia-Herzegovina,” Gen. John M. Shalikashvili, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told lawmakers in October in a pledge also offered by Perry.

But the pace of the reconciliation effort in Bosnia has been slow, and elections--considered crucial to the reconstruction process--have been postponed until mid-September.

In late April, citing the delay in elections, Perry said the allies were scrapping a previous plan to begin withdrawing the peacekeepers by autumn and instead would keep the force intact through Dec. 20, with the pullout to be completed by mid-January 1997.

NATO defense ministers are to meet today in Brussels.

Some analysts said that Perry’s latest remarks--delivered aboard his plane en route to Europe and made available to reporters here--appeared to be an effort to head off new pressure to participate in a follow-on force.

U.S. officials said Perry’s comments were intended to assure the Europeans that Washington is willing to participate in a follow-on force but wants them to mute any discussion of it until after the Bosnian elections in September--and possibly the U.S. presidential election as well.

As he has in previous statements, Perry took pains to point out that it still is not certain whether any U.S. ground troops sent as part of the follow-on force would be stationed in Bosnia proper, as Americans are now in the NATO-led peacekeeping force in Bosnia.

In April, the defense secretary suggested that the United States could deploy troops to “nearby” countries, such as Hungary, presumably to serve as part of an American-run rapid-reaction force that could respond to emergencies.

However, experts pointed out that even if U.S. troops enter Bosnia only in the case of a flare-up, they would still be placed in harm’s way there--a potentially risky policy for the administration, particularly if local extremists attempt terrorist attacks.

Military analysts said any follow-on force most likely would comprise between 20,000 and 25,000 ground troops--possibly including 5,000 to 7,000 Americans--and would be made up of light-infantry, intelligence, logistics and communications units, all under NATO control.

The United States also would continue to help NATO allies provide air cover for the ground force from such launching points as Aviano and Brindisi air bases in Italy.

There would also be naval support, with a Marine expeditionary unit stationed offshore.

Top administration officials, including Clinton, have been aware since before the troops were deployed that the allies might need to maintain some security force in Bosnia well into 1997, but they vowed to pull the troops out in a year to mollify Congress.

Officials have been encouraged that Republicans have not jumped to criticize them since Perry first hinted at a possible extension during a similar session in April. The GOP lawmakers were among the most vocal critics before the troops were deployed.

In one telling sign Wednesday, presumptive Republican presidential nominee Bob Dole withheld any criticism of Perry’s remarks, pointing out that until U.S. and other forces “train and arm the Bosnians, they’re not going to be able to leave.”

Asked during a flight to a campaign stop in Toledo, Ohio, to comment on the Bosnian mission, Dole said only: “Not right now. This is going to be a happy day.”

At his news conference Wednesday, Clinton and Jacques Santer, president of the European Union’s executive commission, also reiterated the allies’ agreement that the Bosnian elections should take place in September rather than being delayed any further, despite some snags in the peace process.

In his remarks Wednesday, Perry drew a fine line between the end of the current NATO-led peacekeeping mission and the start of any new follow-on force.

The current peacekeeping mission “will be over at the end of the year,” he said.

“There may be a mission associated with deterring a war from restarting,” he added, but “nobody is even close to being at a decision point on that question now.”