Tempering Optimism About Housing Boom

On June 19, the Los Angeles Times Orange County business section featured an article, “Home Market on the Move,” that portrayed a very optimistic outlook of the housing market in the county.

The article attributed the increase in new home sales to the shift in sales from the first-time buyer to the move-up market. It also indicated that the recent end to Orange County’s bankruptcy has bolstered consumer confidence in the housing market. The article conjured images of boomtown development with barbecues and overnight encampments of prospective buyers and lotteries a la ‘80s.

I am a development consultant who would very much like to believe that this shift is real, but I must disagree with this optimism. First of all, the event of the Orange County bankruptcy is over, but its implications are far from over. It will take years before we see a complete recovery.

Development may be experiencing a very gradual return, but it is not likely to ever be the same animal it once was here in Orange County, due to many factors. The real irony of this article is reflected in another article on the second page of the same edition: “May Housing Starts Sink to a 5-Month Low.” This article indicates that builders concerned with rising mortgage rates will choke off sales.

CARLENE BASKEVITCH

Irvine